NBA MVP race - the top ten candidates ten games in

[Professor Emeritus]

The season is already setting up clear dividing lines in the MVP race. I wanted to lay them out:


Best Player on the Best Team Bracket

In recent years, the MVP has nearly always gone to one of these guys. The best player on a team who is among the favorites to win the championship. This year there are four (five-ish):

Lebron James: 23ppg, 9rpg, 9aap, 49-33-73 shooting splits

* Looks like he’s coasting, but nearly averages a triple-double and the Cavs' +/- craters whenever he's off the court
* Generally seen as the best leader in the NBA right now
* Best player on the best team, going to get a lot of votes based on last year's Finals too


Kawhi Leonard: 26ppg, 5rpg, 3apg, 46-39-97 shooting splits, good shot at 3rd straight DPOY.

* Combines scoring efficiency with the best perimeter defense in the league.
* Plays his role great within the system, but does little ballhandling, doesn't get the boards, doesn’t protect the rim.
* Has only won a single playoff series in two years and has no defining games, casting doubts in voters that he’s a takeover-type MVP


Kevin Durant: 28ppg, 8rpg, 4apg, 57-41-85 shooting splits.

* Came onto the team with the reigning MVP and immediately looked like the best player on the team.
* Warriors have disappointed so far with defensive issues
* Hard to win MVP if your team wins fewer games than before you got added


Stephen Curry: 27ppg, 3rpg, 6apg, 50-47-88 shooting splits.

* Doesn’t even look like the best player on his own team right now.
* A lot of voters are probably going to think his value got exposed to a degree last year.
* Voter fatigue, 3-1, and KD are going to make a 3-peat virtually impossible.


Chris Paul: 19ppg, 6rpg, 9apg, 46-45-91 shooting splits

* Clippers are tied with the Cavs for the best record in the NBA
* CP3 is still their best player and he's still the best floor general in the league
* Otherwise, it's obvious he isn’t seriously in the running for the thing this year




Ridiculous Numbers Bracket

James Harden: 30ppg, 8rpg, 13apg, 49-37-84 shooting splits.

* Playing in D'Antoni's offense on Morey's team is a match made in heaven, maybe first 30+ppg and 10+apg since Oscar Robertson
* Rockets aren’t bad, but no one is looking at them to come out of the West.
* His defense is still atrocious and a lot of voters don’t like his game (see last year’s MVP, All-NBA voting).


Russell Westbrook: 31ppg, 9rpg, 9apg, 41-37-81 shooting splits.

* Shooting much better from three, but still needs more efficiency to overcome the guys above him
* Now I do what I want! Which means putting up a ton of shots, but resting at times on defense.
* OKC is going to struggle to finish top-4, which makes it unlikely that he’ll get serious consideration


Anthony Davis: 31ppg, 11rpg, 2apg, 50-17-81 shooting stats, 3bpg and 2spg

* Leads the league in blocks and is the only “stats” guy who is really getting it done on both ends.
* Has shown more inconsistency than the other candidates
* Hornets are so bad he could go 35-10-5-5-5 for the rest of the season and still not win MVP.



Pure Scorers Bracket

DeMar DeRozen: 34ppg, 5rpg, 3apg, 53-21-81 shooting splits

* Making a ton of shots.
* Raptors have a good record, but no one takes their chances seriously.
* Even with scoring title, not in serious consideration unless Raptors win the East, and even then…


Damian Lillard: 31ppg, 5rpg, 5apg, 50-38-90 shooting splits

* Looks like MVP numbers in any year but this one. Flirting with 50-40-90 while scoring over 30ppg!
* Still is weak defensively.
* Portland is good, but not good enough to make up for the superior stats of a lot of guys above him.



Honorable Mention:

Kemba Walker, PG13, Giannis, Blake, Jimmy Butler, and Gordon Hayward might pick up a few votes down at the bottom of ballots.

 

[Gangstar8]

stfu

 

[NoMorePie]

casting doubts in voters that he’s a takeover-type MVP

Oh, y'all gonna learn

 

[Remote]

Kardiac Kemba gotta be one of my favorite nicknames

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Oh, and my vote:

1. Lebron
2. Durant
3. Kawhi
4. Harden
5. Curry
6. Westbrook
7. The Brow
8. DeRozen
9. Lillard
10. CP3

stfu

Coliseum WPOY 2016 doesn't like the thread purely because I posted it. Auspicious start.

Oh, y'all gonna learn

I mean, if he starts taking control of the offense at pivotal points, controlling the boards and protecting the rim when they really need it, exerting his will against another team in a meaningful game, I'll change my opinion. I absolutely love Kawhi's game and he plays the game the exact right way. He's like a dream player for a coach. But he simply hasn't looked like he's at the same kind of elite ability level of some of the other guys on this list, where he can go outside of his role on the team and literally take over on either end when he needs to.

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

First of all, LeBron isn't going to get a lot of votes based on last year's Finals. Second of all, why does every candidate have a specific bullet point that lessens their chances of winning MVP, but LeBron doesn't?

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

The only way LeBron wins MVP is if the Cavs get the #1 record, anything short of that and he probably won't win it.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

First of all, LeBron isn't going to get a lot of votes based on last year's Finals. Second of all, why does every candidate have a specific bullet point that lessens their chances of winning MVP, but LeBron doesn't?

Because he's the favorite right now? All the other guys have a reason they're not the favorite. Lebron was the favorite before the season started, and still is, for the same reasons.

Last year's Finals showed that Lebron was the most valuable player in the NBA. Voters aren't going to forget that just because it's a new season - it's going to influence their voting.

If you want a reason that lessons his chances, though, the main one is "ppg". He's only at 23.4, which is lower than the other serious candidates, though in line with a lot of recent MVP seasons (Curry 2015, Rose 2011, Dirk 2007, Nash 2006, and Nash 2005).

 

[PortCityProphet]

10/82 why you waste your time breh? it's barely an 8th of the season yet

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

Because he's the favorite right now? All the other guys have a reason they're not the favorite. Lebron was the favorite before the season started, and still is, for the same reasons.

If you want a reason that lessons their chances, though, the main one is "ppg". He's only at 23.4, which is lower than the other serious candidates, though in line with a lot of recent MVP seasons (Curry 2015, Rose 2011, Dirk 2007, Nash 2006, and Nash 2005).

Vegas favors Westbrook over Curry, LeBron to win 2016-17 MVP

Westbrook was the favorite to start the season. And I wouldn't say LeBron is the favorite right now either - I wouldn't say anyone really is when we're only 10 games deep. Nobody has separated themselves from the top pack. Nevertheless, that still doesn't explain why you'd make a note of every candidate's chances of NOT winning, yet not do the same for LeBron. Just seems a bit strange is all, and maybe too much of coincidence to ignore knowing your history when it comes to Bron Bron.

 

[Ironman]

10 games fam

 

[Professor Emeritus]

The only way LeBron wins MVP is if the Cavs get the #1 record, anything short of that and he probably won't win it.

There's so many good candidates that no one is over a 50% likelihood of winning at the moment, so you could say anyone "probably" won't win it.

But who has a better shot right now? Durant/Curry cancel each other out to a degree and have to deal with the fact that they'll likely win fewer games than last year despite being on a loaded team. Kawhi is going to have stats that look a bit weak compared to the other guys and the Spurs look very unlikely to come out with the best record this season. No one on the Clippers/Hawks/Raptors is really an elite candidate. All the other candidates are going to be struggling to even get HCA in the first round of the playoffs.

10/82 why you waste your time breh? it's barely an 8th of the season yet

This is a world where the first preseason polls come out the week after the previous year's championship.


I posted because this year has a lot of interesting MVP candidates doing incredibly things on the court. It's amazing that 23-9-9 and 31-5-5 aren't even the top-3 best-looking statlines over a 10-games stretch so far.

In terms of voting, of course we have a lot of games to play. I'm not saying that the order will hold.

In terms of games and narratives though, these are all vets. Is anyone going to significantly change who they are over the course of the year? Some of the more extreme stats will likely regress a bit, but the general play will still be there. Unless some team sets the wins record again, or someone gets hurt, I'd put a bet on the narratives I laid out for each player generally holding. It's just a question of how well they maximize their strengths (and how many games their team wins) that will decide how they move up or down.

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

But who has a better shot right now? Durant/Curry cancel each other out to a degree and have to deal with the fact that they'll likely win fewer games than last year despite being on a loaded team.

The amount of games the Warriors won last season is irrelevant - if they finish this season with the top record - one of them will probably get it (most likely Durant).

Kawhi is going to have stats that look a bit weak compared to the other guys and the Spurs look very unlikely to come out with the best record this season. No one on the Clippers/Hawks/Raptors is really an elite candidate. All the other candidates are going to be struggling to even get HCA in the first round of the playoffs.

I think the only player that could possibly win it without the #1 seed is Westbrook. LeBron is going to conserve his energy for the postseason and let Kyrie/Love take more ownership, which means he isn't going to have a stats argument to back his claim when it comes to voting. Unless the Cavs take the #1 seed, his chances of winning are basically zero.

 

[neph27]

I swear you dudes NEVER watch the fukkin spurs

Kawhi is handling the ball all the fukkin time this year. He clearly worked on it big time this off season. He's doing that and getting to the line.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Vegas favors Westbrook over Curry, LeBron to win 2016-17 MVP

Westbrook was the favorite to start the season.

More than twice as many GM's picked Lebron over Westbrook to win this year, with Curry/Harden tied for a distant third.

NBA.com 2016-17 GM Survey - NBA.com


ESPN had Lebron as a heavy favorite over Westbrook, with Durant a distant third.

Summer Forecast: Projecting the MVP race for 2016-17




Anyone betting on Westbrook with those odds right now is an idiot. He's going to struggle to finish top-4 in the West, his numbers are going to be inferior to Harden's and Harden's team is going to have a similarly good record, and the MVP virtually always goes to a contender nowadays. Not to mention the high likelihood that he'll tire/injure the way he's playing the game right now. A lot of people bet on him for emotional reasons after Durant left.

The amount of games the Warriors won last season is irrelevant - if they finish this season with the top record - one of them will probably get it (most likely Durant).

If your team wins FEWER games than it did before it added you, then how the hell are you going to claim you're the most valuable?

I think the only player that could possibly win it without the #1 seed is Westbrook. LeBron is going to conserve his energy for the postseason and let Kyrie/Love take more ownership, which means he isn't going to have a stats argument to back his claim when it comes to voting. Unless the Cavs take the #1 seed, his chances of winning are basically zero.

He's already conserving his energy, and still has the stats (23-9-9) for an MVP argument. Those are better stats than Rose or Dirk or Nash got on their way to the MVP.

All I think he needs is the #1 seed in the East, for the Rockets/Thunder to stay out of the top 2/3 seeds, and for Kawhi to not start dominating while leading the Spurs to the top seed. Unless Curry or Durant gets hurt and the other carries the Warriors to the #1 seed anyway.

Nevertheless, that still doesn't explain why you'd make a note of every candidate's chances of NOT winning, yet not do the same for LeBron. Just seems a bit strange is all, and maybe too much of coincidence to ignore knowing your history when it comes to Bron Bron.

You know what the score is when our arguments have been decided on the court.


If you get this one right over me, it'll be your first.