No, a Huge Asteroid Is Not "Set To Wipe Out Life On Earth In 2880"

DEAD7

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"Phil Plait wants you to know that asteroid 1950 DA is very, very unlikely to hit the Earth in 2880, despite what you may have read. He writes: "As it happens, 1950 DA is what's called a 'near-Earth asteroid', because its orbit sometimes brings it relatively close to Earth. I'll note that I mean close on a cosmic scale. Looking over the next few decades, a typical pass is tens of millions of kilometers away, with some as close as five million kilometers — which is still more than ten times farther away than the Moon! Still, that's in our neighborhood, which is one of the reasons this asteroid is studied so well. It gets close enough that we can get a decent look at it when it passes. Can it impact the Earth? Yes, kindof. Right now, the orbit of the asteroid doesn't bring it close enough to hit us. But there are forces acting on asteroids over time that subtly change their orbits; one of them is called the YORP effect, a weak force that arises due to the way the asteroid spins and radiates away heat. The infrared photons it emits when it's warm carry away a teeny tiny bit of momentum, and they act pretty much like an incredibly low-thrust rocket. Over many years, this can change both the rotation of the asteroid as well as the shape of its orbit."
 

BlvdBrawler

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Yea, the math required to calculate the trajectory of an asteroid that far into the future is beyond our abilities at the moment.

That is, I mean we have the math, there's just too many unknown variables.
 

acri1

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The truth about this is somewhere in the middle.

In actuality, you can't predict (with 100% accuracy) whether or not an asteroid will hit the earth 800 years in the future; the best you can do is estimate the odds based on current data. While it'd be possible to be pretty sure about whether or not something would hit us in the very near future, as you go further in time it gets less an less predictable, because other things could interfere with the object's orbit (ie. gravity from other objects) and small perturbations could become important.

Based on current data, the odds of it hitting in 2880 are about 1/4000. This could change.

So it would be accurate to say that it probably won't hit, but could. I'd argue that the odds are still large enough that being prepared just in case is worthwhile.
 
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