INDIANAPOLIS — The Lions finished last season on a noticeable uptick, despite an almost comical run of injuries. They have a roster full of young players who gained more experience than anyone would’ve expected in 2021, and they’re armed with the No. 2 pick (plus 32 and 34). The NFC North? It’s in a state of upheaval — the Bears and Vikings each fired their coach and GM; the Packers are praying that Aaron Rodgers decides to come back for one more run.
Strange as it sounds (and at risk of falling into the Lions’ annual offseason optimism pitfall), there might be a window here for Detroit to sneak its way into contention, earlier than anyone expected.
And that feeling only has grown more palpable as GM Brad Holmes has noted repeatedly that the team’s books are in much better shape now. That he might have some money to spend.
“I’m not saying that we won’t sign a guy that’s on a one-year deal,” Holmes said Tuesday at the NFL combine. “That’ll still be in play. But I guess you can say the universe is a lot more open to us this year.”
All interesting and encouraging stuff. We’re all still probably asking the wrong question, though.
It’s not, “Is this the year Holmes gets aggressive in free agency?” The real mystery is: Will that time ever come for Holmes, when he throws everything he can at the market in hopes of reshaping the roster with premier pieces?
It may not. And that’s not a bad thing.
“You still want to build through the draft,” Holmes said. “At least that’s what Dan (Campbell) and I talk about, in terms of building through the draft. You want to be selective and you want to be strategic in free agency. We did a lot of the one-year deals last year that kind of went in line with what our plan was and our process was at that time, and now we’re entering Year 2 of our plan.
“You’ve got a tweak here and there that’s gonna be a little bit different. But as the years go on, you’ve just got to stick to your plan.”
The qualifiers there — that the Lions “want to be selective and strategic” — leave open the possibility that Holmes chases a big name. In the coming free-agency period, maybe that’s safety Marcus Williams or a top receiver. A five-year, $75 million contract still can be a smart play, provided it lands you a talent who’s an unequivocal fit for what you want to do.
Everything we know so far about Holmes and Campbell, however, suggests that those splashes — whenever they come — will be more exception than norm. Those two have emphasized from the outset a patient, multiyear plan focused on building from the ground up, with young players they can mold and develop.
That takes more time than slapping a bunch of veterans together and hoping for a playoff berth, but if done right, it also lays down a more permanent foundation.
Campbell talked ahead of the Lions’ Week 14 trip to Denver about that exact setup. Veterans like Michael Brockers and
Alex Anzalone were on the roster because the coaching staff believed they could play, sure, but also because they needed them to set the right tone. In the future, their proteges — 2021 rookies like Penei Sewell,
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Derrick Barnes and Alim McNeill — should be able to pass down those lessons.
“And, yeah, it hasn’t equated to wins yet,” Campbell said at the time, when the Lions were 1-10-1. “But they understand it’s like, ‘Whoa, there’s a certain way to do things.’ And then, you get another draft and you get free agency, and then we sign back some of (our own) free agents … and your talent level goes up a little bit. You’d like to believe now you’re getting to the range of (teams like the) Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. That’s the ultimate goal, where you become a consistent winner.”
The slow-and-steady approach can get a little precarious because, well, there are impending free agents who would appear to fit the Lions’ needs very well. Williams is one, for sure;
Allen Robinson or Chris Godwin might be on that list, too.
Jessie Bates,
Harold Landry, De’Vondre Campbell. Just go down the list, and you’ll find a few.
How do those names fit when we know how badly Holmes wants to build from within? Realistically, they might not.
Having more cap space will let Holmes cast a wider net, but he’s determined not to do anything that will put his team in a bind two or three years from now. He’s also not going to start throwing around money at the expense of players who have proven they belong in Detroit.
Romeo Okwara’s $37 million contract was among Holmes’ first moves as GM.
Frank Ragnow’s $54 million extension was an absolute priority for everyone in the front office.
The NFL slots its rookie contracts now so a team can’t get buried by three or four high picks, the way Detroit was in the Calvin Johnson-Matthew Stafford-Ndamukong Suh stretch. But a successful draft-and-develop approach eventually becomes pay-and-keep, and every huge free-agent addition cuts into the available pool for homegrown talent.
Nothing has changed. The timeline hasn’t accelerated. If anything, the Lions underachieved in meeting their own expectations last season — they certainly didn’t plan on an 0-10-1 start. So, merely getting back on track would include hanging around the race into November and December.
They’re not going to make any panic moves to get there. Holmes can head into free agency with more gusto than he did a year ago, but keep your expectations there in check.
The strategy, now and for however long this regime stays together, will be to “build through the draft” and fill in the gaps from there.
