Playoffs: Scouting Wizards-Raptors
In a sense, the matchup between the Raptors and Wizards is a clash between two franchises at an apex. Toronto's 49 wins set a franchise record, topping last season's total of 48. Washington won 46 games, the most the organization has won as the Wizards and the franchise's highest total since the championship season of 1978-79. If this series were being played on Jan. 1, when both teams looked like legit contenders in the East, there might be considerable buzz leading into the showdown. However, both teams struggled over the season's second half and finished below .500 after the All-Star break. The Raptors had a chance to salvage a No. 3 seed during the season's closing days, but a loss at Boston on Tuesday prevented that and cost them a chance to play the beatable
Milwaukee Bucks. Of course, the Wizards could have been in play for that as well, but instead here we're left with teams looking for answers entering a coin-flip series at just the wrong time of the year.
Toronto won all three regular-season meetings. Yet the focus isn't so much on how Washington will turn that around as it is on these teams' contrasting weaknesses. Both feature top-10 units -- Toronto on offense and Washington on defense. Those ratings more or less held up all season. But the other end of the floor, where the Wizards' sputtering offense will take on the Raptors' turnstile defense, could be where the series is decided. Who is best situated to patch up the leaks on the fly?
QUESTION 1: The Raptors' defense got progressively worse over the course of the season, but then again, so did the Wizards' offense. How will this play out?
Elhassan: The Wizards' offense was abysmal, as it stagnated around the brilliance of
John Wall and four stationary passing targets. There's very little ability to create off the dribble outside of Wall, and even if there was, Wall's perimeter shooting struggles make the middle of the floor too congested, which is a big reason why Washington resorts to so many pull-up midrange jumpers despite its obvious ineptitude (fourth-most attempts vs. sixth-worst in accuracy). Toronto doesn't have to be phenomenal defensively, it just has to put up enough resistance for the Wizards to abandon Plan A (high-expected efficiency shots) for Plan B (readily available, low-expected efficiency shots).
Doolittle: I like the Wizards to exploit a Raptors interior defense that allowed the third-worst 2-point percentage during the regular season. The Wizards posted up more often than all but five teams, per Synergy Sports Technologies, but ranked just 21st in points per play.
Jonas Valanciunas is a solid defender, but he can't guard both
Marcin Gortat and Nene. Much could depend on
Bradley Beal being more consistent with his deep shooting than he's been the past couple of months.
QUESTION 2: On the other hand ... the Toronto offense and the Washington defense were steady, top-10 units all season. So what are the keys on that end?
Elhassan: It's no secret that Toronto's offense is heavily fueled by the innate abilities of its perimeter players to draw fouls and get to the free throw line, specifically DeRozan and Williams. The Raptors' offense has the third-highest reliance on points from the charity stripe among all playoff teams, behind only Houston and Chicago, and Toronto will look to exploit that advantage. For Washington, the availability of Wall defensively allows the Wizards to counteract that attack at least at the point guard position, as his size, length and elite quickness and athleticism allow him to smother smaller players. The Wizards will have to try to keep the Raptors off the stripe by trusting in their help defense and funneling the slashers away from the middle of the floor and toward their ample big rotation.
Doolittle: The Wizards' defense ranked fifth in effective field goal percentage and third in defensive rebound percentage. They don't foul a whole lot and don't force a ton of turnovers. On one hand, you could say the conservative approach limits Washington's ability to get easy shots on the other end. But the Wizards do run, with John Wall leading an attack that finished third in points per play on transitions, per Synergy Sports Technologies. That's a by-product of the defensive rebounding.
The potential problem for Washington is its middling ability to defend the 3-point line. Given the strengths elsewhere on defense, this might not be a big deal. But Toronto set a franchise mark for 3-pointers, posting top-11 rates in both attempts and accuracy.
Kyle Lowry struggled to regain his shot during an injury-plagued second half, and he's got to get it going, That also means Dwane Casey would be well served to keep one or two deep shooters like
Terrence Ross,
Greivis Vasquez and Patrick Peterson on the floor to help Lowry. Doing so should open up driving lanes for DeRozan against the Wizards' stout interior defense.
QUESTION 3: Who will have a better series, DeMar DeRozan or Bradley Beal? Who needs to have the better series?
Elhassan: DeRozan will and DeRozan needs to. He's the key for this offense with his ability to get to the line, and he's been stellar down the stretch of the season, scoring the ball and getting to the stripe (he even managed to mix in a respectable 7-for-20 from the 3-point line over the last 10 games!). Without those contributions, the Raptors become heavily reliant on Lowry's playmaking, and since he's been nursing a bad back, this isn't the time to ask him to carry a greater burden. While Beal is also pivotal for Washington's success, the Wizards still rise and fall with the play of Wall.
Doolittle: While Beal's season was a little disappointing, it was still better than DeRozan's. Beal's individual winning percentage (.475) was just six points off his preseason projection. DeRozan (.453) was 11 points shy of his. But aside from per-play efficiency, it's Beal who has a sizable edge in RPM: plus-2.36 to DeRozan's minus-0.06. So if Beal is the better player, then he should have the better series, all things being equal. However, DeRozan was better in the second half, when he was healthy, than the first, while Beal's performance eroded from one half to the next. You can look at this matchup as a toss-up, and it's a big one. A standoff might be fine for the Raptors, but the Wizards need Beal to create and shoot well in order to open up an offense that doesn't have much room for error.
Predictions
Elhassan: Raptors in seven. Washington has regressed over the past months, and its offensive woes play into the hands of even an inconsistent defense like Toronto's. Remember, the Raptors don't have to be the '94 Knicks defensively, they just have to be good enough, and Dwane Casey has more than enough time to make ample adjustments to ensure that happens. Home-court advantage also comes in handy.
Doolittle: Wizards in six. The Raptors' defensive problems seem more unsolvable than the Wizards' up-and-down offense. Toronto has a huge edge in bench firepower, with potential NBA Sixth Man of the Year
Lou Williams, not to mention Patterson, Vazquez and
James Johnson, but the Wizards have the size and experience to pound on Toronto and play to their strengths.
Don't be surprised if ...
Elhassan: Toronto's bench leads the team in scoring in some games. The reserves have been a huge boost for the Raptors this season, and it's not just Lou Williams.
Doolittle: Most of Washington's wins are decided by late-game performance. Wall ranked 17th in clutch WARP (wins above replacement this season), while Lowry -- Toronto's highest-usage closer -- ranked just 68th. And not for nothing, let's not forget that the Wizards have
Paul Pierce.
BPI Projection
Sixty-one percent chance Raptors win series. Most likely series outcome is Raptors in seven.