This really isn't a major news story at the moment but thought it would lead to interesting discussion. No one reapportionment usually makes a huge difference but over a couple decades states that didn't used to have influence can gain it or vice versa. It's also interesting for the purposes of seeing where people are moving to and from.
The general trend is a drain from the Midwest/rust belt and Northeast, and more electoral votes in the South and West.
The Hill is pretty conservative in their projections:
http://origin-nyi.thehill.com/homen...ern-states-likely-to-gain-house-seats-in-2022
Shouldn't be much of a surprise to see Texas, Florida and North Carolina gain seats. All three have rapidly growing metros and generally strong economies. Oregon may be a bit of a surprise but the Pacific Northwest has been seeing strong population growth in general. From 2010 to 2016, Oregon was the 11th fastest growing state. Texas was 2nd, Florida was 5th and North Carolina was 13th.
The states on the losing side mirror the themes of the past election: the hollowed out rust belt. Illinois has actually shrunk in total population since 2010, as high cost of living and high crime in the Chicago area, plus general decline in the rural southern parts of the states have likely driven residents to other parts of the the country. The other three states set to lose seats are highly populated and industrialized cold-weather states. Illinois is the 49th fastest growing state (with a net loss), Michigan is 44th, Pennsylvania is 43rd and Minnesota is 25th.
Fair Vote, a voting rights advocacy group that combats gerrymandering, has more aggressive projections:
dark purple - plus 3
medium purple - plus 2
light purple - plus 1
grey - no change
orange - minus 1
Likely Changes in US House Seat Distribution for 2020 - FairVote
The states The Hill projects to gain/lose are also in the Fair Vote Projection. The difference is Florida and Texas are projected to gain 2 and 3 seats respectively as opposed to just 1. FairVote includes many other states that The Hill doesn't think will switch.
On the gaining side, FairVote adds in Colorado and Arizona each gaining 1 seat. Both of these states have high standards of living and have large urban areas with strong economies and an influx of migration/immigrants. Both states are also known for their natural amenities. Colorado is 4th fastest growing state and Arizona is 7th.
On the losing side, FairVote adds in Alabama, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Ohio and New York, each losing 1 seat. Four of those states are industrial, cold-weather states. West Virginia had had a struggling economy for decades, as coal as faded and the state doesn't have a major urban area attracting young people. Rhode Island, New York and Ohio are all cold-weather states part of the rust belt and have seen many of their people migrate to warmer areas with stronger economies. Rhode Island's loss is notable because it will reduce the state from 2 seats to just 1. Alabama is the lone southern state set to lose a seat. The state lacks a major metro that is drawing a lot of young people, doesn't have much coast and the state's economy is very shaky especially in the southern half of the state and in rural areas. West Virginia is the 50th fastest growing state (with a net loss), Rhode Island is 45th, Ohio is 42nd, Alabama is 35th and New York is 34th.
For reference, this was the reapportionment in 2010. As you can see there was a lot of change. The themes were similar: gains in the South and West and losses in the Midwest and Northeast. The Louisiana loss was primarily due to Katrina.
So common themes: states with metros attracting young people, with stronger economies, good natural amenities, larger Hispanic populations and warmer climate gain. Meanwhile, more industrial, cold weather, urban states wit h older populations lose out.
*All of the growth rankings are projections from 2010 to 2016 and are percentage of population changes, not total population changes.
The general trend is a drain from the Midwest/rust belt and Northeast, and more electoral votes in the South and West.
The Hill is pretty conservative in their projections:
http://origin-nyi.thehill.com/homen...ern-states-likely-to-gain-house-seats-in-2022
Shouldn't be much of a surprise to see Texas, Florida and North Carolina gain seats. All three have rapidly growing metros and generally strong economies. Oregon may be a bit of a surprise but the Pacific Northwest has been seeing strong population growth in general. From 2010 to 2016, Oregon was the 11th fastest growing state. Texas was 2nd, Florida was 5th and North Carolina was 13th.
The states on the losing side mirror the themes of the past election: the hollowed out rust belt. Illinois has actually shrunk in total population since 2010, as high cost of living and high crime in the Chicago area, plus general decline in the rural southern parts of the states have likely driven residents to other parts of the the country. The other three states set to lose seats are highly populated and industrialized cold-weather states. Illinois is the 49th fastest growing state (with a net loss), Michigan is 44th, Pennsylvania is 43rd and Minnesota is 25th.
Fair Vote, a voting rights advocacy group that combats gerrymandering, has more aggressive projections:
dark purple - plus 3
medium purple - plus 2
light purple - plus 1
grey - no change
orange - minus 1
Likely Changes in US House Seat Distribution for 2020 - FairVote
The states The Hill projects to gain/lose are also in the Fair Vote Projection. The difference is Florida and Texas are projected to gain 2 and 3 seats respectively as opposed to just 1. FairVote includes many other states that The Hill doesn't think will switch.
On the gaining side, FairVote adds in Colorado and Arizona each gaining 1 seat. Both of these states have high standards of living and have large urban areas with strong economies and an influx of migration/immigrants. Both states are also known for their natural amenities. Colorado is 4th fastest growing state and Arizona is 7th.
On the losing side, FairVote adds in Alabama, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Ohio and New York, each losing 1 seat. Four of those states are industrial, cold-weather states. West Virginia had had a struggling economy for decades, as coal as faded and the state doesn't have a major urban area attracting young people. Rhode Island, New York and Ohio are all cold-weather states part of the rust belt and have seen many of their people migrate to warmer areas with stronger economies. Rhode Island's loss is notable because it will reduce the state from 2 seats to just 1. Alabama is the lone southern state set to lose a seat. The state lacks a major metro that is drawing a lot of young people, doesn't have much coast and the state's economy is very shaky especially in the southern half of the state and in rural areas. West Virginia is the 50th fastest growing state (with a net loss), Rhode Island is 45th, Ohio is 42nd, Alabama is 35th and New York is 34th.
For reference, this was the reapportionment in 2010. As you can see there was a lot of change. The themes were similar: gains in the South and West and losses in the Midwest and Northeast. The Louisiana loss was primarily due to Katrina.
So common themes: states with metros attracting young people, with stronger economies, good natural amenities, larger Hispanic populations and warmer climate gain. Meanwhile, more industrial, cold weather, urban states wit h older populations lose out.
*All of the growth rankings are projections from 2010 to 2016 and are percentage of population changes, not total population changes.