The Democratic Party is about to become a regional party

[FAH1223]

Democrats sound the alarm over pro-Trump Senate nightmare

Mike Allen, author of Axios AM

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

There's something much worse than losing the House, and possibly the Senate, that's rattling top Democrats who are studying polling and election trends:

The big picture: It's the possibility of a re-elected President Trump with a compliant, filibuster-proof Senate majority in January 2025.

Why it matters: It's impossible to forecast elections. But you can look at the states with Senate elections in 2024 and see why some Democrats are sounding the alarm.

"Democrats are sleepwalking into a Senate disaster," Yale's Simon Bazelon wrote last week on Matt Yglesias' Substack, Slow Boring

• "The 2024 map is much worse," Bazelon added.
• A close presidential election, he wrote, could doom Democratic Sens. Jon Tester in Montana ... Joe Manchin in West Virginia ... Sherrod Brown in Ohio ... Bob Casey in Pennsylvania ... Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin ... Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona.
• Plus toss-ups could threaten Sens. Debbie Stabenow in Michigan and Jackie Rosen in Nevada.
• In all those states, hardcore liberalism is a tough sell.

Then factor in that most of the GOP senators who stood up to Trump and his brand of politics will be gone: Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, who are retiring after this term, and former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona.

• Now toss in the widespread belief in both parties that the House majority will be lost by Democrats in 2022 — and maintained, if not expanded, in 2024.
• Plus perhaps the most worrisome indicator for Democrats on the political dashboard: The party's edge with Hispanic voters has shrunk.

So you see why John Anzalone, President Biden's campaign pollster, recently told a Politico podcast this is "the worst political environment that I’ve lived through in 30 years of being a political consultant."

There are several ways Democrats could overcome the GOP’s decisive map edge:

• Dems could nominate a presidential candidate who wins decisively — with a clear majority. That typically lifts party candidates in close races.
• Or the GOP could nominate a presidential candidate who can't command a majority, or unelectable Senate candidates. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell warns anyone who'll listen that if the GOP keeps putting up fringe candidates, the party will blow an epic opportunity.

The bottom line: David Shor, one of Democrats' most respected data scientists, has been sounding the alarm for months. "Unless we see big structural changes in the Democratic party's coalition," he tweeted, the 2024 outcome could be "Donald Trump winning a *filibuster-proof trifecta* [House, Senate, White House] with a minority of the vote."

 

[Payday23]

IDC. Democrats had their chance and shyt on voters to get corporate donations. Fukk em. From the feds to NY these people been letting Trump go. if he takes revenge if him and his trumplicans seize control. Dems made this bed. Lie in it. That doesn't mean I support Trump or his ilk. I just think he should've been handled with the toughest consequences compared to the BS we've seen

 

[88m3]

This will help black people

 

[acri1]

It's pretty much inevitable at this point.

Hopefully TLR enjoys their decades of Republican control

 

[acri1]

IDC. Democrats had their chance and shyt on voters to get corporate donations. Fukk em. From the feds to NY these people been letting Trump go. if he takes revenge if him and his trumplicans seize control. Dems made this bed. Lie in it. That doesn't mean I support Trump or his ilk. I just think he should've been handled with the toughest consequences compared to the BS we've seen

You seem to be more worried about punishing Democrats than your own self interest though

I don't see how Republicans getting in and permanently killing any chance of ever doing something about climate change is worth it just to punish Dems

 

[wire28]

isnt this what HL wanted anyway? this is a win that we can finally be rid of the do nothing democrats

 

[the cac mamba]

the San Franhattan party

 

[AquaCityBoy]

isnt this what HL wanted anyway? this is a win that we can finally be rid of the do nothing democrats

This but unironically.

 

[Alix217]

It's pretty much inevitable at this point.

Hopefully TLR enjoys their decades of Republican control

We need the racism to be out in the open, breh.

 

[mastermind]

It’s the Dems own fault for this. No one wants Trump or the GOP, but no one is wants to support a feckless counter party that also doesn’t work in anyones interests but the wealthy. It’s absurd.

 

[acri1]

It’s the Dems own fault for this. No one wants Trump or the GOP, but no one is wants to support a feckless counter party that also doesn’t work in anyones interests but the wealthy. It’s absurd.

This isn't true, a lot of people want Trump or the GOP. About half the country.

 

[mastermind]

This isn't true, a lot of people want Trump or the GOP. About half the country.

What are you responding too? I am talking about people who consider themselves not Republican when I say, “no one.”

And yea, it is the Dems fault. The chance to establish anything was 2008, and the goodwill was there with the housing crash, instead they offered little to regular people.

 

[Micky Mikey]

You seem to be more worried about punishing Democrats than your own self interest though

I don't see how Republicans getting in and permanently killing any chance of ever doing something about climate change is worth it just to punish Dems

I agree with this. Republicans controlling the country in the age of climate change is dire not only for America but the entire world. Its hard to see how we'll even function as a society when we're under the rulership of people who reject science. Our only hope is young people (who'll be most impacted by climate change) taking over the reigns of power and setting in place good governance that can navigate us through this crisis. Of course that wont be for sometime. I think we're just going to have to somehow survive through this era of right wing reactionary politics even though we know it'll be disastrous. Society is just going to have to learn a hard lesson.

A lot of the older generations (some Millennials included) are completely detached from what's coming down the pike. We're sleep walking into an existential crisis because we're a silly people who can't see past the culture war bs.

 

[ORDER_66]

#BOTHSIDES they have no one to blame but themselves

 

[Cuban Pete]

IDC. Democrats had their chance and shyt on voters to get corporate donations. Fukk em. From the feds to NY these people been letting Trump go. if he takes revenge if him and his trumplicans seize control. Dems made this bed. Lie in it. That doesn't mean I support Trump or his ilk. I just think he should've been handled with the toughest consequences compared to the BS we've seen

They move like they secretly want him back imo, trump gets treated by everybody with kids gloves his whole life. I dont see any meaningful effort by the dems to get him out the paint so im not gonna act shockednif he eventually waltzes into the white house again and turns america in to 1970s spain