Kevin Durant isn’t going anywhere — that’s what he has said repeatedly about his pending free agency, that’s what the Warriors believe, that seems immensely logical in the current championship environment, and that’s every subtle and overt indication from everything that has happened since he signed in July 2016.
He’s committed to the Warriors, they’re committed to him, don’t even get tangled up in thinking about alternative future realities.
However …
What would’ve happened if the Warriors lost Game 7 in Houston a few days ago and failed to make it to this fourth straight NBA Finals matchup with Cleveland?
What if the Warriors never snapped out of their bizarre early funk and some of those on-court glares and screams during the torrent of Rockets points turned into something a little more permanent — both on the scoreboard and in the psyche of the Warriors’ locker room?
There might’ve been a single moment — after a bad pass led to a James Harden dunk, a 48-33 Houston lead, some yelling between Durant and Draymond Green, and a particularly fateful Warriors timeout — that was the first time I thought: Unless the Warriors get it together rapidly here, starting with this timeout, the superteam could be in for some changes. At the very least, Durant might think about it.
And …
“We came out the huddle as one — we might have walked into it separately, but we came out as one,” Durant recalled Wednesday of that Game 7 moment. “I think that was a huge moment for us as a group going forward.
“Not just that night, but as a group going forward so we could look back on it and realize that we can pretty much get through anything if we talk it out, communicate, and realize that the goal is just to win. That’s what happened in that game.”
What happened immediately: Stephen Curry made a 3, Klay Thompson made a 3, Durant made a jumper, Curry made another jumper and suddenly the Warriors were back in the game — setting up their epic second-half demolition and series victory.
What it meant: No more wondering if Durant might mildly entertain the thought of leaving the Warriors this summer, though Warriors general manager Bob Myers said he never personally even had that first flash of concern about Durant’s summer options.
“I didn’t sense that,” Myers said Wednesday. “I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I didn’t get the sense that he’s going to go through that process. I think he’s found a home. Maybe (Durant considering leaving) would’ve been said by others. But I would tell you, I didn’t really feel like that was in jeopardy.”
It’s not in jeopardy now. Maybe it never was. But as the Warriors move from the gargantuan emotions of the Western Conference finals — and everything they had to go through while almost losing and then winning it — to the more placid NBA Finals, it’s pretty clear that the previous series is the one that will have the longest-lasting effects on the Warriors roster into the future.
One general stipulation: The Warriors have been tipping their hand for a while — they’re ready to change over a big chunk of this roster, except for at the top.
“I do know, and I’ve been thinking a lot about it, (Gregg Popovich), as you know, is a guy I look to, he has morphed from the beginning of his Spurs tenure to now, there’s been four or five different iterations of the Spurs,” Steve Kerr told me several months ago. “The Twin Towers with (Tim) Duncan, (David) Robinson. (Then) the Duncan sole star, like everything revolves around him, the Duncan waning years where it became more (Manu) Ginobili, (Tony) Parker, ball movement.
“That 2014 team was to me the most beautiful basketball I’ve ever seen. Look at them now. They look nothing like that. It’s all iso for (LaMarcus) Aldridge, because that’s what their personnel dictates. So I think about that a lot. As a coach, you have to adapt to your talent, and you may have to change systems. But you got to recognize when that change has to come.”
Before Game 1 tips off on Thursday night at Oracle Arena, let’s take a player-by-player look at how this is shaping up for this summer, starting, of course, with …
Kevin Durant Contractual status this summer: Pending free agent after signing a one-year, $25 million contract last summer, far below his max level.
What the Warriors will do: Offer him whatever contract length and value Durant wants, whether it’s another one-year contract, a long-term deal or anything in between.
What Durant won’t do: Take another massive discount — he took almost $10 million less than he could’ve gotten last summer to give the Warriors more payroll flexibility.
“We’ll see what happens,” Durant told me and Marcus Thompson II on the “Warriors Plus/Minus” podcast back in April, “but I don’t see myself taking that big of a cut.”
What’s most likely: Durant signing a two-plus-one max deal, which gets him through the Chase Center opening in November 2019, and then he and the Warriors can line up a long-term deal in July 2020.
Klay Thompson Contractual status: Signed through July 2019, and the two sides had a conversation last fall, as reported by Marcus Thompson, about extending his deal before it expires.
What the Warriors will do: Continue to offer Klay the most they can offer him before his deal expires — which would be in the $24-million-a-year range (but less than he could get if he waited until July 2019).
What Klay wants: Not to be bothered about this for a whole year. He’s happy with the Warriors and they love him, so if he is OK with doing it this summer and passing up the dollars he could get if he hit the market a year later, this extension will be done swiftly.
What’s most likely: The Warriors and Thompson announcing a new four-year extension in early July that will keep him under contract through July 2023 and will help out the Warriors with their looming luxury-tax issues.
Draymond Green Contractual status: Signed through July 2020.
What the Warriors will do: Draymond is another candidate for a possible early extension, if he, like Thompson, is ready to skip the open market — but that would more likely come after next season. Warriors management might idly contemplate flipping around the roster a bit on the frontline, but Green is too valuable to them (and maybe not valuable enough on the trade market) to really consider moving him any time soon.
What Green wants: Draymond tested the market as a restricted free agent in 2015 and might be tempted to do it again as an unrestricted free agent in 2020, but he also treasures the chance to win a title every year — and add to his Hall of Fame résumé — playing alongside Curry and the rest.
What’s most likely: The Warriors and Green talk about an extension in July 2019 but both sides decide to wait until July 2020, when Green will sign another long-term deal with the Warriors, probably not at the max but close.
Shaun Livingston Contractual status: Signed through July 2020 but only fully guaranteed through July 2019.
What the Warriors will do/what’s most likely: One more year seems about right for Livingston, who struggled a bit at times this season — which might’ve had management considering waiving him this summer and using the stretch provision to lower their luxury-tax hit — but Livingston remains an essential playoff performer and locker-room presence at 32.