Each week throughout the season, the Playoff Predictor will use ESPN's
Football Power Index(FPI) and human logic (i.e., the eye test) to determine which teams are still alive in the chase for the inaugural College Football Playoff. These rankings take into account perceived team strength (including injuries) and remaining schedule difficulty (including prospective conference championship games).
The Playoff Predictor is not intended to be a forecast of the selection committee's weekly Top 25, which will be released every Tuesday starting Oct. 28. It is a projection of which teams have the best chance to be in the final four come December
.
Front Four
The teams best positioned to reach the playoff following Week 1.
1. Florida State Seminoles
FPI's chance of winning out: 43.2percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 79.9 percent
The Seminoles didn't look like the nation's best team last Saturday, but they did survive one of their few expected challenges away from home this season. On top of that, the team considered to be FSU's toughest competition in the ACC (Clemson) doesn't look very capable of beating the Noles. In fact, FPI now predicts playing at Louisville will be their toughest ACC test. Basically, Florida State is a playoff lock as long as it is undefeated, and its chances of that are the strongest in the country.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
FPI's chance of winning out: 4.2 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 34.2 percent
The Sooners dominated Louisiana Tech, as expected, but their stock got a boost because of some negative developments for a couple of their future opponents. One is the injury to Texas starting quarterback
David Ash, a turn that could tilt the advantage in the Red River Rivalry even more toward Oklahoma. Also, Texas Tech, which was expected to be OU's toughest road opponent, looked mediocre while struggling to beat Central Arkansas. And even though you could argue Oklahoma State and West Virginia might both be better than we originally thought, the Sooners are still a heavy favorite to win the Big 12 because they host Baylor and QB
Bryce Petty, who is also ailing.
3. Georgia Bulldogs
FPI's chance of winning out: 3.7 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 30.8 percent
At least for now, we'll assume the SEC champion is a lock to make the Playoff, and UGA looked like the best team in the SEC during its second-half demolition of Clemson. But even if the Bulldogs aren't really the best in the SEC, they're certainly good enough to capitalize on a schedule that suddenly looks very friendly. Georgia hosts Auburn Nov. 15 (FPI gives them a 52 percent chance of winning) but might not face another top-20 team prior to the SEC title game, assuming it gets that far. The Dawgs' regular-season schedule doesn't include Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU or either of the Mississippi schools, and the trip to South Carolina on Sept. 13 doesn't look nearly as daunting.
4. Oregon Ducks
FPI's chance of winning out: 7.9 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 50.9 percent
This Saturday's game against Michigan State will determine whether the Ducks remain in the front four. Until then, they get a slight boost from the lethargic performance of UCLA, which is expected to be the biggest road test for Oregon this season (FPI predicts a 54.1 percent chance of winning). The Ducks host Stanford and Washington, and they don't have to face USC or Arizona State during the regular season.
First two out
When the committee starts deliberating, it will rank three teams at a time, so Nos. 5 and 6, to steal a phrase from Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, would be the "first two out."
5. Baylor Bears
FPI's chance of winning out: 6.0 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 34.2 percent
Who knows how good SMU really is, but the Bears were impressive defensively in their opener, which is no trivial matter for any team that needs to navigate a Big 12 schedule. The only thing keeping Baylor out of the top four (besides the uncertainty of Petty's injury status) is having to face Oklahoma on the road (FPI projects a 43.6 percent chance of winning). For that reason, the Sooners are likely to remain in front of the Bears on this list for as long as both teams are still undefeated.
6. USC Trojans
FPI's chance of winning out: 1.4 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 19.4 percent
The Trojans showed no signs of off-field distractions as they produced one of the more impressive performances of Week 1 in their rout of Fresno State. The combination of elite talent and a schedule that doesn't include Oregon will make USC a trendy playoff pick if it can go on the road and beat Stanford on Saturday (FPI actually gives the Trojans a 51.6% chance of winning).
Next three out
These teams are in striking distance, as long as they have enough weeks and/or top-10 opponents remaining.
7. Alabama Crimson Tide
FPI's chance of winning out: 2.3 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 17.2 percent
The "next three" are all from the SEC West, and, at least for now, we'll assume the winner of the toughest division in college football will come from this group. The Crimson Tide didn't look great in their opening win over West Virginia, but they are still the West favorite because Auburn and Texas A&M both have to visit Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
8. Auburn Tigers
FPI's chance of winning out: 1.3 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 15.3 percent
The Tigers offense not only picked up where it left off in the win over Arkansas, it also showed that it has quality depth at quarterback. You never know when that might come in handy. That said, Auburn still has road games against four of the top 16 teams (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss) in the FPI rankings (not to mention at Kansas State) and will need to get through a couple of those before its playoff chances are top six-worthy.
9. Texas A&M Aggies
FPI's chance of winning out: 1.0 percent
FPI's chance of winning the conference: 9.6 percent
The Aggies had arguably the most impressive Week 1 performance in all of college football, with a 52-28 win over South Carolina, and, while that boosted them into this tier of the playoff conversation, they still have many difficult tests ahead. Most notably, A&M must travel to Mississippi State, Alabama and Auburn.
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