45% of American jobs are at risk of being taken by computers in the next two decades.

Zapp Brannigan

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http://www.technologyreview.com/vie...of-us-jobs-are-vulnerable-to-computerization/

A recent report from the Oxford Martin School’s Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology attempts to quantify the extent of that threat. It concludes that 45 percent of American jobs are at high risk of being taken by computers within the next two decades.

The authors believe this takeover will happen in two stages. First, computers will start replacing people in especially vulnerable fields like transportation/logistics, production labor, and administrative support. Jobs in services, sales, and construction may also be lost in this first stage. Then, the rate of replacement will slow down due to bottlenecks in harder-to-automate fields such engineering. This “technological plateau” will be followed by a second wave of computerization, dependent upon the development of good artificial intelligence. This could next put jobs in management, science and engineering, and the arts at risk.

The authors note that the rate of computerization depends on several other factors, including regulation of new technology and access to cheap labor.

These results were calculated with a common statistical modeling method. More than 700 jobs on O*Net, an online career network, were considered, as well as the skills and education required for each. These features were weighted according to how automatable they were, and according to the engineering obstacles currently preventing computerization.

“Our findings thus imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerization—i.e., tasks that required creative and social intelligence,” the authors write. “For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.”

Aforementioned report from Oxford can be found here:

http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/oms-...-jobs-computerisation-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m

Here's a breakdown of the vulnerability of jobs in certain industries, as stated by NextBigFigure:

Going down the list of jobs and looking at how many people have different jobs which are the jobs that are safe from displacement ? Even if a class of jobs is not completely eliminated could demand be severely reduced ?

23.3 million jobs in the USA for office administration and support. (New business systems that require fewer people. Web 2.0 companies only need a handful of people or one person to do what took hundreds only a few years ago).

14.3 million jobs in the USA for sales and related work. (Automation and new sales processes)

11.3 million jobs in food preparation and serving. (Improved frozen meals)

10.1 million jobs in production. (Automation and process re-engineering)

9.6 million jobs in transportation and material moving. (more local production : high rise farming, rapid prototyping and manufacturing systems)

8.3 million jobs in education, training and library. (online learning, MIT recordings of the best professors.)

6.9 million healthcare practitioners and technical. (Biomarker tracking with cheap devices to catch and treat diseases early or in the developing stages. Keep people healthier and avoiding the need for more costly and people intensive intervention).

6.7 million jobs in construction and extraction (pre-fab buildings and panels).

6.0 million Management. Re-engineering to flatten organizations and take out layers of management. Web 2.0'ing a business. Reinvent it where a lot fewer people are needed.

5.4 million Installation, Maintenance, and Repair. Redesign things where the quality is better and it does not break or does not need service or is simple to install.
etc...
 

88m3

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Sounds like utter bullshyt, do I think things will stay the way they are now for my lifetime? Of course not. Those numbers are stretch armstrong status. In the next two decades? Friend surely you jest.
 
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