538: Black voters aren't turning out in post-Obama era

ORDER_66

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NOT VOTING IS THE SAME AS A VOTE FOR THE GUY/GAL WHO TRULY HATES YOU. I agree with all of the other things you're saying but if your group has low rates of participation then politicians will not accede to your demands.

Not true... Go ask everyone who run crown heights and who the cops bow down to over there...:francis: money=power...
 

theworldismine13

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Saying black people are turning away from the Democratic Party is something that should be laughed at.

Hillary got appx 90% of the black vote. No other demographic votes for a single party in such a high percentage.

If you count the people that did not show up, black peoples are turning away
 

theworldismine13

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NOT VOTING IS THE SAME AS A VOTE FOR THE GUY/GAL WHO TRULY HATES YOU. I agree with all of the other things you're saying but if your group has low rates of participation then politicians will not accede to your demands.

Truly?

Both sides support white supremacy they just go about it in different ways
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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If you count the people that did not show up, black peoples are turning away

Breh, I don't know you but I know you're smarter than that.

Follow your line of reasoning. That's like saying if you count the people that did not buy iPhones last year, it's obvious people are turning away from Apple. Numbers fluctuate in the short term. A blanket assertion like the one you made should be backed up by more than just anecdotal evidence.
 

theworldismine13

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Breh, I don't know you but I know you're smarter than that.

Follow your line of reasoning. That's like saying if you count the people that did not buy iPhones last year, it's obvious people are turning away from Apple. Numbers fluctuate in the short term. A blanket assertion like the one you made should be backed up by more than just anecdotal evidence.

its not anecdotal evidence, the statistical evidence is in the article in this thread
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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its not anecdotal evidence, the statistical evidence is in the article in this thread

Everything there is explained by the following line:

"Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012."

To me, evidence of "turning away" would be if the GOP share of the black vote begins to increase election after election.
 

theworldismine13

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Everything there is explained by the following line:

"Lower black turnout in 2016 might be explained as a reversion to the mean after that group’s historic turnout for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012."

To me, evidence of "turning away" would be if the GOP share of the black vote begins to increase election after election.

i dont have the article on me but there was an article explaining how black votes for the gop wwere increasing before obama and that obama actually reversed that trend
 

GnauzBookOfRhymes

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i dont have the article on me but there was an article explaining how black votes for the gop wwere increasing before obama and that obama actually reversed that trend

I think as far as affiliation younger voters are less likely to officially claim a party.
Black-Party-Affiliation-and-Vote-Patterns.jpg
 

Macallik86

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Maybe black voters are starting to wake up....:ohhh:
Umm when you don't vote, they focus on you less, not more. If they know black people aren't coming out, they will focus more on things that affect white/hispanics/asians. From the article:
The post-Obama Democratic Party may be less able to count on black voters turning out at Obama-era levels, forcing it to become more reliant on whites with a college degree, Hispanics and Asians.
 

William F. Russell

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Umm when you don't vote, they focus on you less, not more. If they know black people aren't coming out, they will focus more on things that affect white/hispanics/asians. From the article:

But black people DO vote. They just vote for Democratic Party by default.
 

Macallik86

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But black people DO vote. They just vote for Democratic Party by default.
I take it you are not politically inclined? If you understood platforms and policies you would understand why it is a logical conclusion for African Americans to vote for Democrats most, if not all of the time.

Tell me the things you think most negatively affect the black community and I will tell you how cite respectable sources that show the Democratic Party's stance is better than the Republican stance...

Why do you think enduring poorer living conditions to prove a point is a valid political approach? If you want to get your girl's attention, the respectable thing to do is have a conversation and voice your concerns, not ignore your girl until she sees how much she misses you after being with an abusive ex.
 

brick james

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Breh, you're making a pretty huge leap in inference. And you're misunderstanding what my stance is.

Black people do vote in mass amounts but the issue is that they vote in mass amounts almost religiously for the Democratic Party. And what's worse is that they do so without ever articulating SPECIFIC, TANGIBLE demands. So what you have is black people in the electorate who give their *powerful* votes away for nothing more than lip-service, nae-nae'ing, and a few black figureheads from the Democrats. What black people need to do is give their collective vote to the highest bidder who will meet those specified, tangible demands.

When you bring up those black reps who voted for mass incarceration, etc., that happened because black people never made specific demands and, thus, could never hold the Democrats feet to the fire when it comes to meeting our community's needs.

It's 2017 and y'all nikkas still don't understand...


Do you have any evidence that there were any significant black rep that were against mass incarceration. As I understand it the black caucus and black house reps both wanted to be tough on crime for their constituents. So what I am saying is that the black community was complicit in Mass incarceration.

Second you are talking about fairy tales breh. Is there an auction where blacks can sell their votes to their highest bidder? To me you seem to be speaking as if black people don't know what's best for us. Millions of AAs decided to support the Democratic party because they had a better platform than the Republicans, it's quite simple.

The power Dynamics in a first past the post is well understood and we'll studied. You vote for the lesser of two evils, and in the mean time you fight for power. The DNC and the Democratic party are filled with the most powerful blacks, as well as the hardest fighting blacks, hence they get my support. Are there blacks anywhere else to support, I don't know about?
 

TTT

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This is patently false.

And :russ: at you quoting Eugene Robinson who's bought and paid for by the DNC/MSNBC.
Who was the last Republican to get at least 50% of the black vote? Eugene was just paraphrasing a known article about Nixon, it would be like another journalist quoting Lee Atwater. Anyway here is the NYT article where that came from.

THE Grand Old Party still lay buried under the debris of the latest Democratic landslide 1964—when a young, self‐taught ethnologist named Kevin Phillips emerged from his charts and maps to avow to skeptical hearers that just around the corner was an inevi table cycle of Republican dominance that would begin in the late nine teen‐sixties and prosper until the advent of the 21st century. To the pure of heart it all sounded spooky and a bit repugnant because it was premised on the alleged hostility of Irishmen, Italians and Poles, whose ethnic traits were conservative, toward Jews, Negroes and affluent Yankees, whom history had made liberal. There were more of the former and they were ineluctably trending Republican.

Phillips had grown up in the Bronx. His observations of life in this polyglot borough had con vinced him that all the talk about melting‐pot America was buncombe. Most voters, he had found, still voted on the basis of ethnic or cultu ral enmities that could be graphed, predicted and ex ploited. For instance, the old bitterness toward Protestant Yankee Republicans that had for generations made Demo crats out of Irish, Italian and Eastern European immigrants had now shifted, among their children and grandchildren, to resentment of the new immi grants—Negroes and Latinos —and against the national Democratic party, whose Great Society programs in creasingly seemed to reflect favoritism for the new mi norities over the old. No mat ter that only 29 per cent of Americans would admit to being Republicans; Phillips could show you 50 Congres sional districts where work ing‐class Catholics were leav ing the Democratic party in droves. This would acceler ate if only dense Republicans would learn to read the portents.

And Phillips had turned Paul Fino's 24th Congres sional District, which had the largest Italo‐Irish vote yin the nation, into a laboratory of ethnic politics. Under Phillips's guidance, Fino had broken with his routinely liberal past to oppose Great Society pro grams for ghetto minorities— rent subsidies, school busing, welfare liberalization, model demonstration projects, Of fice of Economic Opportunity community action programs; moreover, Fino had begun vo ciferously to assault the lib eral establishment that fur nished the ideology of both major political parties in New York, drawing a clear dis tinction between himself and Republicans like John Lind say, Ogden Reid and Jacob Javits, or Democrats like Benjamin Rosenthal, Richard Ottinger and Theodore Sor ensen.


Phillips knew he was right; it was all in the charts. But theory is one thing and elec tion returns are another. Hence the butterfly, as the Fino entourage approached the polling places where, be fore a word was spoken, its members would learn the trend from the faces of Ital ian and Irish precinct leaders —the euphoric gleam of hid den treasure found, or the perplexed frown that bespoke a mysterious shortage in the company books. This time the looks were all gleams. Italian Assembly districts were re porting in more strongly than ever for the durable Fino; more significant, the most re calcitrant Irish precincts, red flagged by Phillips for their century‐old steadfastness be hind the party of Richard Croker, Tammany and Al Smith, were today reporting whopping Fino majorities.


On the 1968 Nixon cam paign:

“It was a catastrophe— millions of dollars spent by Madison Avenue lightweights who converted certain victory into near defeat. The soap salesmen drained all of the issues out of the campaign that would have won it big. McGinnis should have called his book ‘The Unselling of the President.’”

On his campaign associates:

“I respect John Mitchell. He and Murray Chotiner were the real people in the campaign, not the artificial public‐rela tions phonies who called Nix on ‘the product’ as if he were some kind of underarm deo dorant.”


On conservatives:

“I wish we could drop into the Potomac all those obso lescent conservatives who are still preoccupied with Alger Hiss and General MacArthur, and who keep trotting out laissez faire economics and other dead horses. They make the Republican party look musty to millions of ignored working‐class people who are looking for a party that re lates to their needs.”

On liberals:

“Liberalism has turned away from the common people and become institutionalized into an establishment. Its spokes men are driven around in limousines and supported by rich foundations, the television networks and publishing houses, the knowledge indus try, the billion‐dollar universi ties and the urban consulting firms which profiteer from poverty. Liberalism is doin inant only in the Northeast, which is always the last bas tion of a dying order of privi lege. The Northeast resists the populist surge of our day just as it fought the revolution of Jefferson, Jackson, Bryan and Roosevelt. The states that Humphrey carried in 1968 were roughly the states that Hoover carried in 1932.”


On the Republican party of the Northeast:

“It's run by Yankee silk stockings like Josiah Spalding, who send their kids 2,000 miles to look for poverty in Mississippi but won't travel one subway stop to help poor whites working for $1,800 a year. As long as they are in charge, the Republican party won't do well there. But the upper crust is gradually leav ing us to become Democrats. The Republicans are getting thousands of Irish and Italian working‐class switchovers and the Democrats are getting Chub Peabody.”

On Negroes and the G.O.P.:

“All the talk about Republi cans making inroads into the Negro vote is persiflage. Even ‘Jake the Snake’ [Senator Ja cob K. Javitsj only gets 20 per cent. From now on, the Re publicans are never going to get more than 10 to 20 per cent of the Negro vote and they don't need any more than that . . . but Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more Negroes who register as Dem ocrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and be come Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrange ment with the local Demo crats.”


Such candor in the Attor ney General's office is air clearing, but, like ammonia, it does not endear. And be sides, nobody likes learning worldly lessons from an enfant terrible; in an old man's game like politics, an under ‐ 30 sage is tough to take.

Phillips had one conspicuous campaign success—the urging of an Outer South Strategy aimed at capturing Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia, as opposed to the Deep South Strategy that had carried Wallace territory for Goldwater in 1964, but at the cost of frightening away mil lions of potential voters else where.

“My argument was this: Your outer Southerners who live in the Ozark and Appala chian mountain ranges and in the Piedmont upcountry—and now in urban‐suburban Florida and Texas—have always had different interests than the Negrophobe plantation owners of the Black Belt. This is a less extreme conservative group. It adheres with other Republican constituen cies across the country and can be appealed to without fragmenting the coalition. When you are after political converts, start with the less extreme and wait for the extremists to come into line when their alternatives collapse.”

http://www.nytimes.com/1970/05/17/archives/nixons-southern-strategy-its-all-in-the-charts.html
 
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