538 predictions for the 2019-2020 NBA season based on rosters

[Professor Emeritus]

2019-20 NBA Predictions

TITLE CHANCES
Rockets 26%
Clippers 17%
Bucks 15%
Sixers 13%
Warriors 7%
Nuggets 5%
Lakers 4%
Celtics 3%


REGULAR SEASON RECORDS
Rockets 57-25
Bucks 54-28
Clippers 53-29
Sixers 53-29
Nuggets 53-29
Jazz 51-31
Warriors 48-34
Raptors 47-35
Lakers 47-35
Celtics 46-36
Mavs 45-37
Thunder 44-38
Timberwolves 43-39
Blazers 42-40
Pacers 42-40
Magic 42-40
Nets 38-44
Bulls 37-45
Pistons 37-45
Suns 36-46
Spurs 36-46
Kings 35-47
Grizzlies 32-50
Wizzards 31-51
Hawks 29-53
Hornets 24-58
Cavs 24-58
Knicks 20-62



Those are all sorts of messed up. This shyt would work for baseball but you can see it don't work to predict basketball at all. Too much of basketball is about chemistry and fit. You can't take statistics earned on different teams and use them to predict what players will do on their new teams, watch it.

 

[Barnett114]

Rockets will be doo doo.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Rockets will be doo doo.

I think the Rockets, Warriors, Mavs, Thunder, and Celtics are probably all overrated, the Bucks, Lakers, Blazers, and Spurs all underrated. You can't just take guys like Westbrook and DLo and Booker and Kemba and think that their impact on one team is going to translate the same way to new teammates.

 

[RisingSon]

Rockets lmao

 

[Kimo_bud]

Lol the rockets. Westbrook and harden are the definition of regular season mvps who have bad playoff reputations

 

[Anerdyblackguy]

Rockets are not winning 57 games. Maybe 51 at best.


At the Spurs only winning 36 games.

 

[Jparker]

Lol the rockets. Westbrook and harden are the definition of regular season mvps who have bad playoff reputations

 

[Paper Boi]

their shyt was pretty accurate last year at the top anyways.

we'll see though.

 

[Jparker]

Orlando will be better than 42-40

 

[Paper Boi]

here's their projections from last year:

Warriors 63-19
Rockets 56-26
Raptors 56-26
Jazz 55-27
Celtics 54-28
76ers 53-29
Thunder 53-29
Nuggets 50-32
Lakers 48-34
Wizards 48-34
Bucks 47-35
Timberwolves 45-37
Pelicans 45-37
Pacers 43-39
Heat 41-41
Pistons 40-42
Trail Blazers 39-43
Hornets 38-44
Spurs 37-45
Nets 36-46
Clippers 33-49
Grizzlies 33-49
Magic 32-50
Cavaliers 30-52
Hawks 28-54
Mavericks 28-54
Bulls 27-55
Suns 26-56
Knicks 23-59
Kings 23-59



Finals winner projections:
Warriors 49%
Raptors 12%
Rockets 9%
Celtics 9%
76ers 5%
Jazz 4%
Thunder 2%
Wizards 2%
Lakers 1%
Nuggets 1%
Everyone else <1%

 

[Cladyclad]

here's their projections from last year:

Warriors 63-19
Rockets 56-26
Raptors 56-26
Jazz 55-27
Celtics 54-28
76ers 53-29
Thunder 53-29
Nuggets 50-32
Lakers 48-34
Wizards 48-34
Bucks 47-35
Timberwolves 45-37
Pelicans 45-37
Pacers 43-39
Heat 41-41
Pistons 40-42
Trail Blazers 39-43
Hornets 38-44
Spurs 37-45
Nets 36-46
Clippers 33-49
Grizzlies 33-49
Magic 32-50
Cavaliers 30-52
Hawks 28-54
Mavericks 28-54
Bulls 27-55
Suns 26-56
Knicks 23-59
Kings 23-59



Finals winner projections:
Warriors 49%
Raptors 12%
Rockets 9%
Celtics 9%
76ers 5%
Jazz 4%
Thunder 2%
Wizards 2%
Lakers 1%
Nuggets 1%
Everyone else <1%

Those record predictions sucked balls

 

[Rigby.]

Rockets are not winning 57 games. Maybe 51 at best.


At the Spurs only winning 36 games.

I think 36 might be low but just about every team in the West got noticeably better or at least remained about the same other than the Warriors and maybe the Rockets

 

[Professor Emeritus]

their shyt was pretty accurate last year at the top anyways.

we'll see though.

here's their projections from last year:

Warriors 63-19
Rockets 56-26
Raptors 56-26
Jazz 55-27
Celtics 54-28
76ers 53-29
Thunder 53-29
Nuggets 50-32
Lakers 48-34
Wizards 48-34
Bucks 47-35
Timberwolves 45-37
Pelicans 45-37
Pacers 43-39
Heat 41-41
Pistons 40-42
Trail Blazers 39-43
Hornets 38-44
Spurs 37-45
Nets 36-46
Clippers 33-49
Grizzlies 33-49
Magic 32-50
Cavaliers 30-52
Hawks 28-54
Mavericks 28-54
Bulls 27-55
Suns 26-56
Knicks 23-59
Kings 23-59



Finals winner projections:
Warriors 49%
Raptors 12%
Rockets 9%
Celtics 9%
76ers 5%
Jazz 4%
Thunder 2%
Wizards 2%
Lakers 1%
Nuggets 1%
Everyone else <1%

Those aren't bad but remember that most of those teams at the top had the same rosters as the years before, so the statistical projections are gonna be more accurate. The main piece that moved was Kawhi and he fit in really well to his new team.

This year practically everyone other than the Bucks and Nuggets had a massive roster shakeup and new players are going to fit in very differently.

Those record predictions sucked balls

They ain't bad so far as predictions go. Can you point to anyone who does better?

 

[GunRanger]

2019-20 NBA Predictions

TITLE CHANCES
Rockets 26%
Clippers 17%
Bucks 15%
Sixers 13%
Warriors 7%
Nuggets 5%
Lakers 4%
Celtics 3%


REGULAR SEASON RECORDS
Rockets 57-25
Bucks 54-28
Clippers 53-29
Sixers 53-29
Nuggets 53-29
Jazz 51-31
Warriors 48-34
Raptors 47-35
Lakers 47-35
Celtics 46-36
Mavs 45-37
Thunder 44-38
Timberwolves 43-39
Blazers 42-40
Pacers 42-40
Magic 42-40
Nets 38-44
Bulls 37-45
Pistons 37-45
Suns 36-46
Spurs 36-46
Kings 35-47
Grizzlies 32-50
Wizzards 31-51
Hawks 29-53
Hornets 24-58
Cavs 24-58
Knicks 20-62



Those are all sorts of messed up. This shyt would work for baseball but you can see it don't work to predict basketball at all. Too much of basketball is about chemistry and fit. You can't take statistics earned on different teams and use them to predict what players will do on their new teams, watch it.

How do you think vegas makes odds and get so accurate? The same statistical models

 

[Professor Emeritus]

How do you think vegas makes odds and get so accurate? The same statistical models

Nah, Vegas includes a lot of human reasoning because basketball rosters can't be completely modeled off of previous results alone and probably never will be. Like I said, there's too much about chemistry and game styles involved, the particulars of motivation, shyt that happens in the offseason, etc.

Here's one set of bettor odds. Notice the Bucks, not the Rockets, have the highest win total projection. Lakers are higher, Spurs are a good 10 games higher, Timberwolves about 8 lower, etc.

2019-20 NBA Win Totals & Picks for All 30 Teams: Bucks Lead the Way | The Action Network


And here's title odds. Clippers out in front with Lakers right behind them, Rockets back in 4th tied with the Sixers and behind the Bucks

2020 NBA Title Odds: Clippers, Lakers Lead The Way Entering Regular Season | The Action Network


That shyt definitely ain't going off of computer models alone.