538: Trump’s Approval Rating Is Incredibly Steady. Is That Weird Or The New Normal?

[Smoking With Cigarettes]

62-63million people voted for him....would you like to define his "base"

People that still support and ride for him. We cant pretend Trump didnt get a lot of votes from people who wanted a change from the status quo. Hes done very little for the common man, continuously looks like a bafoon, and has the overall temperment of a child. His base =/= the votes he got in 2016. If a competent Dem with minimal skeletons get the nomination Trumps done

 

[Json]

state by state is the ONLY thing that matters....These fukk ass pundits are telling a different narrative so they can keep their jobs spinning shyt on tv

Truth.

I don’t believe the Midwest is as much of a toss up as Dems want to believe though.

I don’t believe white Republicans anymore. The idea that Georgia is that disapproving but passing abortion bills tells me it’s still Trump country.

 

[mc_brew]

If a competent Dem with minimal skeletons get the nomination Trumps done

what a huge qualifier that is .....

 

[FAH1223]

state by state is the ONLY thing that matters....These fukk ass pundits are telling a different narrative so they can keep their jobs spinning shyt on tv

If I’m the Trump campaign, that sea of red disapproval in the Midwest would frighten me @Json

 

[Smoking With Cigarettes]

what a huge qualifier that is .....

Youre right but a competent, semi-decent person should be the bare minimum. To keep it buck, any of them can beat Trump, so long as they have actual policies that benefit Americans to campaign off of. If they keep attacking the ACA, any Dem can probably win. Hes going to have to work hard to catch lightning in a bottle that second time

 

[mc_brew]

Youre right but a competent, semi-decent person should be the bare minimum. To keep it buck, any of them can beat Trump, so long as they have actual policies that benefit Americans to campaign off of. If they keep attacking the ACA, any Dem can probably win. Hes going to have to work hard to catch lightning in a bottle that second time

i want to have faith, but white people disappoint me....

 

[JBoy]

Truth.

I don’t believe the Midwest is as much of a toss up as Dems want to believe though.

I don’t believe white Republicans anymore. The idea that Georgia is that disapproving but passing abortion bills tells me it’s still Trump country.

Our general assembly is gerrymandered to hell, the GOP lost most of their metro seats but still has a solid majority

 

[Smoking With Cigarettes]

i want to have faith, but white people disappoint me....

If whoever wins the nomination has a legit black agenda then hopefully the brehs and brehettes turnout can somewhat offset white people doing what white people do

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

62-63million people voted for him....would you like to define his "base"

Lot of independents and moderates in there... for the most part the moderates have fallen in line but the independents in some crucial states he's been slipping, midterms showed this.. states he won like Michigan ain't looking great if the election was held today.

Of course all this depends on what he does the next year and more importantly who comes out of the Dem primaries

 

[FAH1223]

Lot of independents and moderates in there... for the most part the moderates have fallen in line but the independents in some crucial states he's been slipping, midterms showed this.. states he won like Michigan ain't looking great if the election was held today.

Of course all this depends on what he does the next year and more importantly who comes out of the Dem primaries

He won MI, WI, PA by 77,000 votes combined.

All 3 states swept in Dem Governors, AGs, and re-elected US Senators by healthy margins in 2018 on par or even exceeding Obama 2012.

 

[Wild self]

He won MI, WI, PA by 77,000 votes combined.

All 3 states swept in Dem Governors, AGs, and re-elected US Senators by healthy margins in 2018 on par or even exceeding Obama 2012.

Exactly. On top of that, his base isn't increasing at all. Those 63 million hardcore supporters for Trump is probably as good as it gets for him. Ever. He couldn't convert a non-voter or a Dem to like him, much less vote for him and his party. Not once did you hear a Dem say "I Hated his guts in 2016, but I like him now in 2020 because he made good policy."

 

[dtownreppin214]

I think he's staying in that 40%-42% range unless the economy tanks or he starts a war.

For me, looking at his approval ratings state by state is very telling though.

Tracking Trump: The President’s Standing Across America

So Iowa -10 only amounts to a statistical tie versus most of the Dem candidates.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

can we really trust polls anymore?

Yes. Of course they're not perfect indicators, but even in 2016 the 538 results were pretty close to reality. Move the numbers over by 1-2% in four states and no one would be complaining about the polls at all. Clinton won the popular vote by a narrow margin as predicted (it was only a couple points more narrow than the best predictions), she just barely lost in a number of states that people expected her to get slight wins in.

does polling still rely heavily on cold-calling landlines?

i have never been polled.

have you? how'd they do it?

I got polled once like 15 years ago. But no, only an absolute shyt poll would rely on landlines now, most of them (I think other than Rasmussen) haven't relied on landlines in a decade or more. They coldcall a bunch of random numbers in a representative selection of areas, get their answers, compare the demographics of the people who answered to the demographics of who is expected to vote, and then adjust the results accordingly if some group is overrepresented or underrepresented in their sample.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Truth.

I don’t believe the Midwest is as much of a toss up as Dems want to believe though.

I don’t believe white Republicans anymore. The idea that Georgia is that disapproving but passing abortion bills tells me it’s still Trump country.

Come on breh, you know there plenty of church-going Black people out there who would approve of an abortion bill but wouldn't vote for Trump.

But that doesn't matter anyway, cause that's being passed by the legislature and the legislature is tilted towards Republicans. But presidents (and governors/us senators) have to win the popular vote, and that's a lot closer. Adams damn near won the governorship last year and it will only get better.

Black folk with money in Alabama and South Carolina should give up on those damn states and start moving in to nice rural homesteads in Georgia until the power shifts.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

I wouldn't say Clinton won the pop vote narrowly. It was like 5 million or something

That's a lot of damn people. If the Dems can get even a slightly better turnout and some of those independents flip then Trump is in trouble. GOP is going to try to suppress the vote again like a muthafukka.. fools in TLR are fooled by their schemes, let's hope most folks aint