Trust the Process? Matt Rhule Facing a Make-or-Break Year 3
When head coaching vacancies emerged at USC and LSU this past fall, Matt Rhule told his Panthers’ players he could get one of the top college jobs and make more money but he wanted to be with them in Charlotte. Rhule’s comments, made during a team meeting, presumably were meant to assure his players of his belief in what he calls “the process,” which has come under increasing fire as the Panthers have lost 21 of 31 games under Rhule’s tenure.
Rhule was hired in Carolina in 2020 after overseeing quick turnarounds at Temple and Baylor, but sources say owner David Tepper is unhappy and embarrassed after the $16 billion hedge fund manager gave Rhule a seven-year, $62 million deal to outbid the New York Giants for his services. Tepper apparently plans to give Rhule a third year, with Rhule saying this week the owner had privately expressed “nothing but confidence about me and the future and moving forward.” But the three-month collapse after a 3-0 start has tested everyone’s patience, with one Panthers source characterizing the team’s regression in Rhule’s second season as “a clusterfukk.”
A 32-6 loss to Tampa Bay last weekend matched the largest margin of defeat in his two seasons, but Rhule said his process is “1,000 percent working,” even if the results don’t show it. There is growing skepticism among some Panthers players about whether that’s the case. Many of the 20-plus players, staffers, team and league sources interviewed for this story believe the same attributes that made Rhule a successful college coach are undermining his efforts in the NFL.
They say Rhule — like a lot of ex-college coaches used to controlling every facet of the program — has the tendency to micromanage “everything that touches football,” as one source put it. Rhule has the final say on roster decisions, although he called that a formality when general manager Scott Fitterer was hired in January, saying the two would work collaboratively.
Fitterer said the arrangement is similar to the setup in Seattle with head coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider. But where Carroll had been an NFL and college head coach before being hired in Seattle in 2010, Rhule’s only previous NFL experience was a one-year stint as the Giants’ assistant offensive line coach in 2012 under Tom Coughlin.
Rhule, who turns 47 in January, has leaned heavily on his Temple and Baylor connections in building his staff and roster. And though more than half of the assistants on Rhule’s first Panthers staff had at least some NFL experience, none had been an NFL head coach or coordinator.
“The proof’s in the pudding,” said one veteran personnel official. “The product on the field is bad.”
Rhule points to the team’s defense — ranked second in the league in yards allowed — as a sign of progress and has praised his team’s effort level even as the Panthers have dropped 10 of their past 12 games. And Rhule’s defenders, including current Panthers receiver Robby Anderson, note that Rhule’s college teams made their biggest jumps in his third season. “We’re still stacking bricks,” Anderson said this week. “We’re still building the foundation. We’re still building the culture.”
For Rhule to replicate his third-year success in Charlotte, he needs to fix the offensive line, solve the quarterback question that to this point has eluded him and hope Christian McCaffrey stays healthy. He also needs to find an offensive coordinator — among other expected staff changes — after firing Joe Brady on Dec. 5 during the team’s bye week.
That’s the shortlist for a coach who has lost at least a portion of the team’s fan base while trying to maintain the support of his players and owner.
(Rich Barnes / USA Today) In addition to “the process,” Rhule also likes to talk about “the brand,” which he describes as being a tough, hard-nosed, competitive team. It’s a philosophy shared by ex-Giants coaches Coughlin and Bill Parcells, whom Rhule aspired to be growing up in New York City.
Rhule wants to run the ball 30-33 times a game, but that’s been a challenge with McCaffrey hurt again and the Panthers being forced to throw the ball after falling behind. And though he says he’d prefer not to do it, Rhule also has been using two quarterbacks, a platoon system more often seen in college.
The defense has been the strength of the team, but it’s built on speed and athleticism, which makes the Panthers susceptible to downhill, power-running attacks. Defensive coordinator Phil Snow’s group has shown cracks while being forced to play almost flawlessly to keep the Panthers in games. “The defense is starting to wear down,” said a longtime NFC personnel executive. “They don’t have a lot of size on defense, which is starting to show late in the year.”
The Panthers have allowed 30.4 points during their current five-game losing streak. Only the Steelers (31.0 ppg) and the Chargers (30.5) have allowed more points since Week 10. Facing an injury-depleted Buccaneers offense last week, the defense gave up its longest run and longest completion of the season — both in the first half.
The Panthers are tied for 23rd with 16 takeaways — a statistic Snow said has to improve for the defense to become elite. “We are making progress, but it’s not where we want,” he said. “To be a championship-level defense, we’ve gotta get more turnovers and create more plays that change the game, and not give them up.”
Another veteran scout said it’s tough to say what the Panthers’ identity is, but it’s not toughness.
“(Rhule) can say toughness in his mind, but they’re not oozing toughness on the field,” the scout said. “They’re soft. They’re a really soft football team. I don’t see the defense stopping anybody where it’s a 14-13 score. That’s tough football.”
Still, the defense has easily outperformed the offense, which ranks near the bottom of the league in total offense (28th with 305.7 ypg), passing offense (29th with 196.1 per game) and scoring offense (26th with 18.5 ppg).
Rhule’s success or failure likely will be determined by his ability to find a franchise quarterback. After moving on from Teddy Bridgewater, the Panthers traded three draft picks to the Jets for Sam Darnold, the NFL’s lowest-rated passer in 2020. Before Darnold ever threw a pass for them, the Panthers picked up his fifth-year option for ’22 at a guaranteed $18.9 million.
After a promising start, Darnold — without McCaffrey and behind a suspect line — reverted to what he called “choppy feet” in the pocket, resulting in interceptions and poor timing in the passing offense. When Darnold cracked his shoulder blade near midseason, the Panthers signed Cam Newton in the hopes the 2015 MVP could salvage their playoff chances. Newton accounted for two short touchdowns in a cameo roll at Arizona and completed 21-of-27 passes against Washington before hitting a wall.
In his past four starts, Newton completed 47.4 percent of his passes and had a 44.5 passer rating. Panthers’ quarterbacks have combined for a league-worst 67.5 passer rating and have thrown 19 interceptions, more than any team except the Jets (20).
The offense has improved slightly yardage-wise in three games under interim play-caller Jeff Nixon. But the Panthers have averaged only 13.7 points a game over that span, eight points a game fewer than their output in Brady’s final three games as coordinator. (It’s worth noting Nixon did not have a placekicker in the Buffalo loss after Zane Gonzalez was injured in warmups.)
Rhule’s decision to fire Brady followed a 23-point loss at Miami and was made during the bye week. Despite the Panthers’ 5-7 record at the time, Rhule stuck to his plans to give players and coaches the entire bye week off, which Kansas City’s Andy Reid and other coaches have done.
Rhule said he made up his mind on Brady later in the week. “I kind of came out of the (Miami) game with some feelings in a lot of different areas,” Rhule told reporters, “and just took the week to go back and watch tape and think about it.”