A PHD Students Solution to Tanking

[((ReFleXioN)) EteRNaL]

Tanking" — the process of creating a team that is designed to lose a lot of games with the hopes of gaining a valuable draft pick — reared its ugly head again when Buffalo Sabres fans cheered a game-winning goal by the opposing team.

When he was a Ph.D. candidate in statistics at the University of Missouri in 2012, Adam Gold presented a solution to tanking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Gold's "Reverse Standings" method attempts to reward the teams that need draft picks the most while at the same time discouraging teams from intentionally losing games.

The proposal is rather brilliant in its simplicity, something that will appeal to most sports fans, and is better than the system currently in place for most major sports.

Here is how the "Reverse Standings" method would work:

Teams that do not make the playoffs are ranked based on the number of games they win (or points they accumulate in the NHL) after they are eliminated from playoff contention. The team with the most wins (or points) is then given the top pick in the draft. The team with second-most wins (or points) receives the second pick and so on.

The important point here is that only games played after being eliminated from playoff contention are used to determine the draft order.

In theory, the worst teams are eliminated earlier in the season and those teams have the most chances to accumulate wins or points. For example, an NBA team eliminated from playoff contention with 30 games to go will have 30 chances to rack up wins and will have a much better chance to get the top pick than a team eliminated with one week to go.

What this system would cure is the systematic losing that takes place once teams know they are no longer a playoff contender. Gold showed that the winning percentages for teams in all four major North American sports leagues decline after they are eliminated from the playoffs, with the difference being quite dramatic in the NBA and NHL.

Instead of a system that has teams losing games to jockey for draft position or ping pong balls in a lottery, teams will actually be rewarded for winning games, creating a scenario where all teams will want to win games down the stretch.



http://www.businessinsider.com/reverse-standings-tanking-2015-4#ixzz3WDEXzCBR

 

[((ReFleXioN)) EteRNaL]

what do you guys think?....obviously every system is gonna have its flaws, but this would be a lot better than the system in place now. it would make these shytty teams at least WANT to compete to the very end.

 

[I AM WARHOL]

TBH i think they should just leave it has is. I dont find tanking to be that big of an issue. Gives shiity teams fanbase's some hope

 

[CrimsonTider]

TBH i think they should just leave it has is. I dont find tanking to be that big of an issue. Gives shiity teams fanbase's some hope

anything is better than what they have now.

if you being in the playoffs is puts you in a worse position than not making playoffs as a franchise than changes should be made immediately

 

[HHR]

TBH i think they should just leave it has is. I dont find tanking to be that big of an issue. Gives shiity teams fanbase's some hope

Hope via losing games intentionally (or at the least REALLY REALLY not trying) isn't good for ANY sport.

 

[SchoolboyC]

That still doesn't address the fact that there's teams that tank long before they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. At this point, I don't care. If a couple teams want to tank then who cares. Hell a lot of people I see can't even tell the difference between a team that's tanking and a team that's just legitimately awful.

The only way to 100% get rid of tanking is to end draft order being determined by record in any form. If you don't want to do that, then tanking is something you're just gonna have to deal with.

 

[Gil Scott-Heroin]

The loophole in that system is that you can still tank - all you have to do is cruise through the first three-quarters of the season (rest your main players and concede situation games like back-to-backs), then when you're out of playoff contention bring them all back and start actively trying to win games. And to be honest it'd fukk up the season, because you'd get the teams that want to compete for a playoff spot running right away from the other teams who wanted to tank - then when that time elapses - the teams that already have a seeded-position locked in, will start resting guys and concede games here and there knowing they made the playoffs and the teams wanting a pick would then started trying to win.

You'd get a lot of inconsistent results and efforts from all teams.

 

[Kitsch]

My opinion is dependent on what # pick the Knicks get in the lottery.

 

[Ed MOTHERFUCKING G]

The punishment for tanking is poor attendance and fan apathy.

 

[The God Poster]

anything is better than what they have now.

if you being in the playoffs is puts you in a worse position than not making playoffs as a franchise than changes should be made immediately

Which Teams are you reffering to??

 

[CrimsonTider]

Which Teams are you reffering to??

The 7th and 8th seeds.

 

[tremonthustler1]

Again with tanking

If you say a team is tanking, you're in denial of how bad a team can be. If I looked at the Warriors' record and said "they can't be that good' you'd call me nuts and say THEY ARE THAT GOOD. Well, bad teams are that bad. They just have enough incentive to not fully feel like shyt for being that bad.

I hate the lottery, only because I'd rather do away with it. Besides that, people gotta realize that being awful has no benefits, and damn sure no guarantee of one. There's no payoff for being garbage because even a rookie alone can't change your fortunes overnight.

 

[Darealtwo1]

nope...I like it the way it is....If the top player is from a city where the pro basketball team sucks then make the balls go where they need to go

 

[DeVanteSwing]

Bad teams will continue to be bad

The draft is meant to help the worst teams and bring them to contention by giving them a chance at a young star

Once today's NBA balances out with the Wolves, Sixers, etc adding more talent, nobody will be talking

there's 0 reward for getting swept in the first round

 

[Houston911]

maybe penalize teams that suck year after year

Like you can only pick in the top 5 for 2 consecutive seasons

When they stop goving rookies cheap contracts you will see a lot less teams tanking

Rookie deals should be two years with a team option for the 3rd