A PHD Students Solution to Tanking

[Mensch Fontana]

Tanking" — the process of creating a team that is designed to lose a lot of games with the hopes of gaining a valuable draft pick — reared its ugly head again when Buffalo Sabres fans cheered a game-winning goal by the opposing team.

When he was a Ph.D. candidate in statistics at the University of Missouri in 2012, Adam Gold presented a solution to tanking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Gold's "Reverse Standings" method attempts to reward the teams that need draft picks the most while at the same time discouraging teams from intentionally losing games.

The proposal is rather brilliant in its simplicity, something that will appeal to most sports fans, and is better than the system currently in place for most major sports.

Here is how the "Reverse Standings" method would work:



The important point here is that only games played after being eliminated from playoff contention are used to determine the draft order.

In theory, the worst teams are eliminated earlier in the season and those teams have the most chances to accumulate wins or points. For example, an NBA team eliminated from playoff contention with 30 games to go will have 30 chances to rack up wins and will have a much better chance to get the top pick than a team eliminated with one week to go.

What this system would cure is the systematic losing that takes place once teams know they are no longer a playoff contender. Gold showed that the winning percentages for teams in all four major North American sports leagues decline after they are eliminated from the playoffs, with the difference being quite dramatic in the NBA and NHL.

Instead of a system that has teams losing games to jockey for draft position or ping pong balls in a lottery, teams will actually be rewarded for winning games, creating a scenario where all teams will want to win games down the stretch.



http://www.businessinsider.com/reverse-standings-tanking-2015-4#ixzz3WDEXzCBR

Won't teams just flat out tank super early just to get eliminated first? This doesn't solve anything

 

[Freedman]

From a fans perspective and just wanting to see good basketball, It seems like it would be a good idea if the draft was ordered by who had the best non playoff record because the teams just outside would be elevated to contender status much faster

IE: The 2003 draft

Yao, Franchise, and Rookie Bron

Prime Ray Allen and Rookie Melo

Agent 0 and Rookie Wade

 

[The God Poster]

maybe penalize teams that suck year after year

Like you can only pick in the top 5 for 2 consecutive seasons

When they stop goving rookies cheap contracts you will see a lot less teams tanking

Rookie deals should be two years with a team option for the 3rd

Just like My Player

 

[babylon1]

not exactly a ground breaking idea. a 10 year old could have come up with this solution

 

[FTBS]

All you gotta do is go back to a true lottery. You dont need wheels or silly shyt like this. Sometimes a .500 squad will get the top pick. Sometimes the worst record will. Do that and prevent teams from getting the top pick in back to back years or even longer.

 

[No..Money..Mo..Problems]

This doesn't solve anything matter fact it might increase tanking by decent teams/franchises for a season.
Lets say your a good team or even a treadmill team but you don't think you can make a run at the title anytime soon.
With this model you don't have to dismantle the team you just have to be really bad for the 1st 3 months by faking injuries or putting out a lineup that won't win many games knowing you can guarantee yourself the first pick by simply reactivating your veterans and telling them to ball out like they usually do. I guarantee you with this model you will have a team or two who was projected to make the playoffs as a 4-7 seed start 15-36 and than mysteriously go 24-7 after being eliminated from the playoffs. The system can still work better than the original but you need take out the "guaranteed" part. You keep the lottery system with the percentages but the team with the most wins after being eliminated gets the most amount of ping pong balls. You will never eliminate tanking but this could be the best solution.

 

[Damnshow]

What's so wrong with tanking? No team is forced to sign bunch of average players to compete for mediocrity. Get bunch of young players, develop them and see which ones got something to do with your future, draft players and keep on growing up your young players, no problem with that. It's impossible to have a league where last places are 10 w's lower than let's say 8th seed

 

[tremonthustler1]

All you gotta do is go back to a true lottery. You dont need wheels or silly shyt like this. Sometimes a .500 squad will get the top pick. Sometimes the worst record will. Do that and prevent teams from getting the top pick in back to back years or even longer.

That happens already.

The whole preventing of teams from LUCKING OUT is nonsense. That's why it's luck.

 

[tremonthustler1]

maybe penalize teams that suck year after year

Like you can only pick in the top 5 for 2 consecutive seasons

When they stop goving rookies cheap contracts you will see a lot less teams tanking

Rookie deals should be two years with a team option for the 3rd

Anthony Bennett will have a $6.8 mil 4th year option declined this summer. Top picks eat good.

 

[Houston911]

Anthony Bennett will have a $6.8 mil 4th year option declined this summer. Top picks eat good.

And how much does Nerlens Noel make

 

[FTBS]

That happens already.

The whole preventing of teams from LUCKING OUT is nonsense. That's why it's luck.

They already went back to the old system? Must've missed that.

There is luck and there is also spreading the wealth which is the whole point of a draft system.

 

[Tha Gawd Amen]

I believe that the owners should play a 1v1 tournament to see who gets first pick though

 

[Henry Orbit]

I believe that the owners should play a 1v1 tournament to see who gets first pick though

 

[Mr swag]

Tanking" — the process of creating a team that is designed to lose a lot of games with the hopes of gaining a valuable draft pick — reared its ugly head again when Buffalo Sabres fans cheered a game-winning goal by the opposing team.

When he was a Ph.D. candidate in statistics at the University of Missouri in 2012, Adam Gold presented a solution to tanking at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Gold's "Reverse Standings" method attempts to reward the teams that need draft picks the most while at the same time discouraging teams from intentionally losing games.

The proposal is rather brilliant in its simplicity, something that will appeal to most sports fans, and is better than the system currently in place for most major sports.

Here is how the "Reverse Standings" method would work:



The important point here is that only games played after being eliminated from playoff contention are used to determine the draft order.

In theory, the worst teams are eliminated earlier in the season and those teams have the most chances to accumulate wins or points. For example, an NBA team eliminated from playoff contention with 30 games to go will have 30 chances to rack up wins and will have a much better chance to get the top pick than a team eliminated with one week to go.

What this system would cure is the systematic losing that takes place once teams know they are no longer a playoff contender. Gold showed that the winning percentages for teams in all four major North American sports leagues decline after they are eliminated from the playoffs, with the difference being quite dramatic in the NBA and NHL.

Instead of a system that has teams losing games to jockey for draft position or ping pong balls in a lottery, teams will actually be rewarded for winning games, creating a scenario where all teams will want to win games down the stretch.



http://www.businessinsider.com/reverse-standings-tanking-2015-4#ixzz3WDEXzCBR

This is dumb. Keeps the bad teams bad. And punishes teams that are not tanking

 

[Th3G3ntleman]

I'm curious how would yall feel if something to the effect happen.

If a team picks within the top 5 for a year then for the next 3 years they are ineligible to pick within the top 5 regardless of record.