Can you elaborate on why people think this will lead to owing Europe favors?
I don't have a single long form source or "evidence" of this - its a sentiment I gathered when trying to get a sense of local European takes on Trump's Greenland f*ckery.
Trump in both terms has openly sh*tted on the EU for what he calls a "free ride". As I'm reading these takes I come across the fact that his sentiment has been shared by many presidents and administrations in both parties for decades - different motivations, same sentiment. Geopolitically the EU has gotten complacent in the idea of the US protecting its borders and sovereignty while the US has footed the majority of the bill. Even Obama
threw shots back in 2016, specifically at GB for their lack of "putting 5 on it" .
The US defense budget has been and will continue to be unsustainably astronomical ( we're already at a $1T annually and Trump is shooting for $1.5T ). Our over reliance on defense has given way to our op China gaining parity through their focus on infrastructure. A lot of people saw the writing on the wall a long time ago that China was on pace to overtake us long term. Things like the Chips Act and Inflation Reduction Act weren't just answers to the exposal of COVID supply chain weakness, they were active attempts to start a US pivot to stay ahead.
Obviously Trump's handling of all this is as ham fisted as everything else he does but he has successfully scared the sh*t out of the EU and lit a fire under them to start actively picking up more of the burden of their defense. Unfortunately, his motivations aren't to focus those resources back into the US, he's more concerned with helping his daddy gain strategic footing while he personally profits.
I could ramble about this all morning because the different threads of this are fascinating...in summary, there will be some liberals who won't be thrilled about EU partnerships that could result in the US continuing to shoulder the burden of their defense.