Canelo has to get at at least 4 out of the first 6 to stand a chance. Mayweather only gets better down the stretch and never loses championship rounds.
Age- The day mayweather gets old overnight (dont think he will sat.)
The quick fight turn around- will fighting so soon after his last fight hurt or benefit mayweather
Hands- Is his right hand fully healed?
Weight- Canelo has to make 152, the task shouldnt be nearly as grueling at 23. Mayweather has looked more vulnerable in fights above 147. de la hoya he weighed in at 150 (2007) and cotto he was 151 (2012). if he comes in at 152 that will be the heaviest he has weighed for a fight.
Canelo's learning curve- A lot of people were surprised with canelo in the trout fight initially because of what trout had done to cotto previously. It his first REAL respectable win over a true 154 pounder and reasonably crafty southpaw. Canelo definitely showed there are more layers to his game. We will be waiting to see how much better he will be for the ultimate test come Saturday.
This fight does worry me, but i think its more because of the magnitude of the fight than the actual threat of the fighter.
I do think Canelo will be an even better fighter than in the trout fight but even so I do not think it will be enough to beat mayweather skills for skills.
For canelo to win he needs to set the tone EARLY. Mix his attack and fight behind the jab.
I think rounds 1-4 will have mayweather fans worried as canelo looks sharp getting his punches off in a mixed attack of boxing and pressure as mayweather collects his data.
Progressively through each around after that Money May will become sharper, canelo's punch output will drop although still creating excitement toward the end of the round with flurries in which he may steal a round.
By the championship rounds Canelo will be frustrated and frozen looking for a big shot and stalking mayweather as he increasingly looks more dominant. In one of the rounds it may look like may can get canelo out.
I think it will look like a pick em fight early with a lot of suspense that transcends to a competive fight where mayweather leads going into a decisive last two rounds going to mayweather. In a close UD 115-112 7 rounds to 4 with one even to Money May