ORDER_66
I am The Wrench in all your plans....
All them rare earths and resources and computer chips american companies get gonna get stopped...
As Nancy Pelosi sets a visit to Taiwan, there’s increased concern China is getting ready to invade its Asian neighbor.
- Thread starter Anerdyblackguy
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- beijing china nancy pelosi taipei taiwan
All them rare earths and resources and computer chips american companies get gonna get stopped...
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
All them rare earths and resources and computer chips american companies get gonna get stopped...
Yeah, but I'm asking the logical conclusion beyond computer chips. The US can make computer chips if they wanted to. It's an American invention. It just became cheaper to do it in Taiwan and globalization/specialization benefited us in doing that.
I'm asking what happens if we abandon Taiwan, and subsequently Ukraine. I have my thoughts why the US is supporting this.
The US, believe it or not is in a great position to be isolationist if they truly wanted to. This is what I believe Trump's endgame was. Which is extremely short-sighted.
Spidey Man
Superstar
We abandon Taiwan, we go into a rescission/depression that lasts years. China has a total monopoly on semiconductors and rare earth materials and it'll take years to make it back to where we are now, not to mention they will be advancing.
We also lose our alliance with Japan/Korea and possibly Australia, which means we lost the Pacific ocean and all the trade that goes through there.
Pax Britannica to Pax Americana to Pax Sinica
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
Not to mention, the US probably becomes a fascist religious ethno state as it tries to recover.
Spidey Man
Superstar
As for Ukraine, if we abandon them now, Poland goes to war with Russia and the war spreads throughout Central Europe and the Nordic countries. Washington is the only real deterrent to Russia using nuclear weapons. The US leaves and Moscow probably goes nuclear to avoid a long war between Russia, Poland/Ukraine/Finland/Norway, or China gets directly involved and we just jump ahead to WW 3.
What are your thoughts on why the US is supporting the idea of abandoning Taiwan and/or Ukraine??
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
Like @Spidey Man said, we lose all of our east Asian allies. Europe becomes their own entity independent of the US. Everyone dumps the dollar. US economy collapses.
The US doesn't make shyt anymore. And if the US doesn't even protect you...why is there a need to be allied to them?
Taiwan's intelligence agency accuses China of running secret police stations from restaurants | Taiwan News | 2023-05-23 17:41:00
Stations also turn overseas Chinese communities against Taiwan | 2023-05-23 17:41:00
www.taiwannews.com.tw
DrBanneker
Space is the Place
Japan rewrites its constitution to eliminate pacifism and they become a nuclear power. They could literally get a nuke in weeks and have thr advanced rockets to deliver.
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
Oh, I agree. Japan is the sleeping military giant of this generation. It's not even that they really lack a military, it's just more defense focused.
I think they're going to do this anyway eventually. They're just letting the US do things for the moment, but let China keep building these islands in the middle of the ocean closer to Japan.
I also think chip manufacturing coming back to the states will have Japan also eventually say the US doesn't have the incentive as much to support us anymore and we should do it ourselves.
Piff Perkins
Veteran
There's no evidence China can take Taiwan. It would require a D-Day type amphibious landing. Worse yet, the failure to take it within days would immediately result in sanctions and blockades. What does China do when they run out of oil and food, because the US cuts them off from the rest of the world? The entire point of China's military buildup is to prepare for a world where the US isn't the US anymore. That's not happening anytime soon, so Taiwan is safe.
And as others have said, any type of attack would result in Japan going apeshyt and waking that military giant. Good luck.
Spidey Man
Superstar
Seoul probably does the same
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
Check my post history on this topic. I don't think they can take Taiwan either; porcupine strategy. I'm quite adamant that even if the US outright abandoned Taiwan, Taiwan would inflict some of the heaviest casualties on an attacking country in the history of modern warfare.
I'm asking hypothetically in the spirit of good debate.
Piff Perkins
Veteran
Oh for sure, I wasn't saying you were wrong, we clearly agree based on previous threads on this. Despite the CHIPS act and the alleged, potentially historical superconductor events that have (allegedly) been happening over the last few days I don't think the US would abandon Taiwan. Similar to why we'd never abandon Ukraine or Australia. There's a clear incentive for checking adversary power in the short+long term.
To me the ultimate question is do we think Xi is as stupid or misinformed as Putin? I think Xi has built a similar information bubble that doesn't present balanced information, but ultimately he's not as dumb. And I think a year of watching the US slowly dismantle Russia like this has to be a clear warning sign of what could happen to them. But, as mentioned earlier, it would be worse. Russia has their own active food and crop resources. China is a heavy importer for food and oil, meaning that unless they have a way to simply make the US disappear they're gonna get fukked in a Taiwan invasion situation.
I think they're gonna wait. Taiwan can be taken without military invasion. Culturally. It would take time but it's possible.