Keith Law's Top Farm Systems
To kick off my look at the best prospects in the minor leagues this week, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in their systems and who have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next three days.)
The future is now
The full schedule of Keith Law's annual prospect rankings package.
Jan. 28: Farm system rankings
Jan. 29: Top 100 prospects
Jan. 30: AL East top 10s | ALC | ALW
Jan. 31: NL East top 10s | NLC | NLW
Similar to last year, there are only a handful of systems that combine both a few high-impact or high-ceiling prospects and also have depth down to and past the end of their top 10 list. (My top 10 rankings by team will be released on Thursday and Friday.)
Many systems ranked in the teens boast a couple of very good prospects -- say, one or two guys who project as above-average regulars, and another two or three who might be everyday guys -- and then it's bench parts and relievers. Those players are good to have, as you'd much rather fill those spots with minimum-salaried players than have to reach out to free agency, but their asset value is much lower than the values of prospects who project as average or better.
One last point: Of my top 10 farm systems, only three are "large market" teams (although the proper term would be "high revenue"). Scouting and player development are still the best way to build a competitive major league team, and while some extra money in scouting helps, success in either area is far more a function of the people you employ than the money you throw at the players. Good organizations hire and retain good people, enact strong processes and then execute them -- even when fans or writers don't see the big picture.
1. Houston Astros
On the one hand, when you pick first overall every year, you should probably end up with a pretty good farm system, and the Astros' top five prospects are all first-round picks. On the other hand, the Astros have done everything they needed to do to restock what was a few years ago the worst system in the majors, like exceeding MLB's recommended signing bonuses for Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz in 2012, or landing prospects like Jonathan Singleton,
Domingo Santana and
Asher Wojciechowski in trades.
They've become more aggressive in Latin America, as well, after years of dormancy following the departure of legendary Venezuelan scout Andres Reiner in 2005, and have been willing to endure some brutal seasons at the major league level in pursuit of the goal of strengthening the weak system. They have depth and they have a couple of high-ceiling guys at the top of the system, getting close to the point where the light at the end of the tunnel no longer looks like an oncoming train. It's been ugly, Astros fans, but hang in there.
2. Minnesota Twins
The Twins have more high-end talent -- I'm referring to players who have both high ceilings and also have a reasonable probability of getting close to those ceilings -- than any other organization right now. They have a pair of potential future MVP candidates in Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, with more power arms than this system has had in ages. They don't quite have Houston's depth, but the gap between the systems is quite small.
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
Almost everything went right for the Pirates in 2013 -- and I'm only talking about their farm system. They bounced back from failing to sign their first-round pick in '12, Mark Appel, by landing the best prep hitter in last year's class in Austin Meadows, while several prospects already in the system took huge steps forward into my overall top 20.
4. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats, but they could use a few arms; either arm, not terribly picky, must throw at least 92 mph.
Their top four prospects are all impact position players, three because of how they'll hit, one (Albert Almora) because of his defense/offense combination. With those prospects joining what they already have in the majors, they could have one of the NL's best offenses by 2016.
5. Boston Red Sox
They rival Houston for the best top 10 of any team, with as many prospects on the top 100 as the Astros have, and while they don't have Houston's depth, Boston's system is pretty deep, with at least a half-dozen pitching prospects who reasonably project (that is, not just pie-in-the-sky forecasting) as No. 4 starters or better.
And that ignores the part about their best prospects being position players who hit and most of whom play very good defense. When a defensive whiz like Christian Vazquez, a catcher who can hit a little, can't crack your top 10, you're doing a lot of things right.
6. New York Mets
The turnaround in this system is remarkable, especially when you consider they have not had a top-10 pick since they took
Matt Harvey in 2010, and it puts the Mets in excellent shape relative to the other four teams in their division.
The decisions to trade R.A. dikkey and
Marlon Byrd look even better in hindsight. The Mets also have one of the minors' best collections of pitchers who throw strikes but aren't strictly finesse guys.
7. Kansas City Royals
The first wave of top Royals prospects hit Kansas City over the past two years, but most of them haven't come close to expectations yet -- although I think
Eric Hosmerhas finally turned that corner. The next group is less hyped, but might be just as good, with power arms leading the way and a couple of strong bats.
This wave of talent is shallower than the last one, but the Royals' biggest window of contention is going to start very soon.
8. Colorado Rockies
A sneaky-good system, although with Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray throwing 98 mph tablets by hitters I doubt the Rockies can keep their prospect depth on the QT. They've generally been a productive club in Latin America despite avoiding the biggest bonus babies, and I'm in the camp that assumes that 2012 first-rounder David Dahl will return this April without missing a beat.
9. San Diego Padres
The Padres were my top system two years ago and graduated a lot of that depth to the majors. However, they filled the void nicely with two more solid drafts, helping make up for lost seasons from
Casey Kelly and
Rymer Liriano (both of whom missed 2013 due to Tommy John surgery).
Their recent trade for major league reliever
Alex Torres also included
Jesse Hahn, another power arm to add to the system, but he missed their top 10 behind several pitchers with a better chance to remain starters.
10. Baltimore Orioles
Very top-heavy, but a strong front five, all on the top 100, due in no small part to a string of four straight solid first-round picks since the Matt Hobgood fiasco. (Hobgood, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2009 draft, has a 5.05 ERA in his career and hasn't made it past Class A.)
Their depth is improving, though it's still behind where it'll need to be to keep the club competitive in the AL East, and more investment in intriguing international amateurs like Olelky Peralta will help bolster the system
) and free agent signings, but he's been horrible to their farm system.
