Best/Worst Colleges for Converting Elite Recruits into NFL Draft Picks

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https://blogs.emory.edu/sportsmarke...nverting-elite-recruits-into-nfl-draft-picks/

More detail on the methodology:

https://blogs.emory.edu/sportsmarke...rafted-in-the-nfl-go-to-kentucky-not-alabama/

The relationship between three-star recruits and draft picks is insignificant. Specifically, we found that every five-star player signed by a school translates to 0.33 draft picks, and every four-star player translates to approximately 0.09 draft picks. If we examine only players selected in the first three rounds of the draft, then each five-star recruit produces 0.23 picks and each four-star recruit results in 0.05 picks.

To further illustrate this point, let’s examine two schools. Over the last six NFL drafts, the University of Florida has brought in one hundred four and five-star recruits, and had “only” twenty-nine players drafted. The average recruiting class rank for the Gators over this period was 6.1. In contrast, the University of Pittsburgh brought in twenty-five four and five-star prospects but had seventeen draft picks. Pitt’s average recruiting rank was 32.

The bottom line seems to be that for players with a goal of playing in the NFL, program selection should not be based on the glamour provided by the big time programs such as Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, and USC. Rather players should seek out opportunities at schools with substantial budgets but lower ranked recruiting classes. In other words, it’s probably more important to increase your probability of getting on to the field early, rather than maximizing the number of times you play on a big national stage.

 

[SoulController]

ehh that kind of data is tough to compile, so many kids flunk out/transfer/get hurt. interesting study tho

while the past few years have been off, no school has put out more good pros than Miami from 85-05. a ton of lower profile guys in HS (Reed/Wayne/Lewis/Sapp etc) but a solid conversion rate for the 4 and 5*