Big Developments in Yemen’s Civil War (SALEH KILLED BY HOUTHIS)

thatrapsfan

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Anti Saudi alliance is collapsing as Ali Abdullah Saleh and his forces have turned their guns on the Houthis. This will create the exit Saudi needs to get out of the war, and the Houthis will end up the biggest loser.

I tried to tell y’all that the Yemen war isn’t simply a Saudi war on Yemen as the left has imagined it in the West. A lot of people will confused to see that Saleh’s move against the Houthis will be well received throughout Yemen and even more confused when Saleh is on good terms with Saudi by the new year.

@FAH1223 @Trajan @Techniec @ZoeGod
 

FAH1223

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The table is basically set for Yemen to revert back to its original state of a Zaydi dominated northern state and a Southern region controlled from Aden. The border would probably be just north of Taiz. The Houthis bravely fought against the Saudis but became way too sure of themselves and obnoxious towards their own people to be able to rule. They will be ousted from Sanaa eventually and pushed back into their devastated northern homelands.

I'm not surprised that Saleh has turned on the Houthis and vice versa. It was months in the making. Saleh knows how to play off everyone against everyone else. That is how he was able to rule Yemen for so long.
 

ZoeGod

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Anti Saudi alliance is collapsing as Ali Abdullah Saleh and his forces have turned their guns on the Houthis. This will create the exit Saudi needs to get out of the war, and the Houthis will end up the biggest loser.

I tried to tell y’all that the Yemen war isn’t simply a Saudi war on Yemen as the left has imagined it in the West. A lot of people will confused to see that Saleh’s move against the Houthis will be well received throughout Yemen and even more confused when Saleh is on good terms with Saudi by the new year.

@FAH1223 @Trajan @Techniec @ZoeGod
This will push the Houthis to Iran. Because contrary to popular belief Iran had warned the houthis not to ally with Saleh, not to seize Sanaa, and not to move push to Aden. Iran simply wanted the Houthis to stay out of the civil war. They wanted the Houthis to simply stay in the sidelines,stockpile their weapons, and create a sort of Hezbollah style autonomous region near the Saudi border. The Houthis learned the hard way and will probably not trust no one again which means Iran moves in and have complete influence over them. Second if Hadi is smart he should provide South Yemen some from of autonomy short of independence. If not this opens another conflict. Saleh is getting old and will soon die. His sons will be the ones in control not Hadi. However the Houthis will revert back to their guerilla war against Sanaa. Yemen still has a whole host of issues but in the short term its a win for the Saudis however the Houthis will still be a major thorn on their side. This war opened the sectarian can of worms in Yemen where extremist will exploit.
 

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The table is basically set for Yemen to revert back to its original state of a Zaydi dominated northern state and a Southern region controlled from Aden. The border would probably be just north of Taiz. The Houthis bravely fought against the Saudis but became way too sure of themselves and obnoxious towards their own people to be able to rule. They will be ousted from Sanaa eventually and pushed back into their devastated northern homelands.

I'm not surprised that Saleh has turned on the Houthis and vice versa. It was months in the making. Saleh knows how to play off everyone against everyone else. That is how he was able to rule Yemen for so long.
Saleh is a smart character and shrewd but his health is in decline. Once he is gone I wonder if his sons in the military are just as political shrewd as him.
 

thatrapsfan

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The table is basically set for Yemen to revert back to its original state of a Zaydi dominated northern state and a Southern region controlled from Aden. The border would probably be just north of Taiz. The Houthis bravely fought against the Saudis but became way too sure of themselves and obnoxious towards their own people to be able to rule. They will be ousted from Sanaa eventually and pushed back into their devastated northern homelands.

I'm not surprised that Saleh has turned on the Houthis and vice versa. It was months in the making. Saleh knows how to play off everyone against everyone else. That is how he was able to rule Yemen for so long.
I dont think the bolded is accurate. Its the Houthis that had visions on an explicitly Zaydi-ruled North, i.e. a modern Imamate which ruled parts of the North for nearly a millenia before the 20th century. But the first major civil war with international actors in North Yemen was fought explicitly to abolish this this: North Yemen Civil War - Wikipedia and what eventually took its place was a system of patronage dominated by Saleh, but also implicating Northern tribes who are often fluid confederations that have both Sunnis and Zaydis in them. Its true when people say that sect was not a major fault line in Yemeni politics before and the influential tribes reflect this. Hell Saleh's big time rival and ex-general Ali Mohsen is his cousin, from the same tribe, and he is closely affiliated with Yemen's Muslim Brotherhood (while Saleh is a Zaydi) What it will look like is more similar to Yemen's political situation pre-Arab Spring, but with its infrastructure devastated, people even poorer, and the South armed with international backers etc.
 

thatrapsfan

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This will push the Houthis to Iran. Because contrary to popular belief Iran had warned the houthis not to ally with Saleh, not to seize Sanaa, and not to move push to Aden. Iran simply wanted the Houthis to stay out of the civil war. They wanted the Houthis to simply stay in the sidelines,stockpile their weapons, and create a sort of Hezbollah style autonomous region near the Saudi border. The Houthis learned the hard way and will probably not trust no one again which means Iran moves in and have complete influence over them. Second if Hadi is smart he should provide South Yemen some from of autonomy short of independence. If not this opens another conflict. Saleh is getting old and will soon die. His sons will be the ones in control not Hadi. However the Houthis will revert back to their guerilla war against Sanaa. Yemen still has a whole host of issues but in the short term its a win for the Saudis however the Houthis will still be a major thorn on their side. This war opened the sectarian can of worms in Yemen where extremist will exploit.

I think just from the view of the proxy conflict, this development is a loss for Iran because what they can do to support the Houthis has always been limited. Unlike Lebanon, they dont have a direct pipeline to provide them any sort of material support and thats become even more difficult with the war.

Its hard to see how Hadi remains in the scene much longer, the rapid developments will leave him even more isolated and irrelevant. The Saudis are already providing air support to Saleh and welcoming his moves. If Saleh gets the Houthis out of Sana'a, Taiz, and Hodeidah they will handle him the keys to the whole car, and will have little use for Hadi. Saleh has been grooming his son Ahmed to take over for a while, he was the Ambassador to the UAE and an army general. The UAE reportedly had him under house arrest, but I bet he will be back within the next week. Ali Muhsin who was an important power broker before the Houthis took over Sana'a has also voiced support for Saleh's move. I can picture a rapprochement that gets him back in the country as well.

The South is the major elephant in the room short and long term. The UAE has been providing direct support to secessionists, who previously did not have an international backer, and majority of the South (Aden especially) is supportive of them. They were shut out of previous agreements post Arab Spring, but they will have to be acknowledged as a major player in any big resolution to the conflict. Autonomy at the very least seems to be in the cards.
 

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@thatknickfan it's basically the UAE plan coming to fruition

The emails that leaked from their embassy in Washington a while back included a plan to "peel away" Saleh from the Houthis. He was the lesser of 2 evils in their eyes. The ultimate plan was to then sideline Saleh by empowering ppl allied with him. I guess Hadi was not as good puppet as they wanted. He dared to question UAE ruling over his hometown of Aden as a protectorate.

Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi has accused Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and deputy supreme commander of the Emirati armed forces, of behaving like an occupier of Yemen rather than its liberator, Middle East Eye can reveal.

The feud between the two men threatens to split the alliance of forces that are fighting the Iranian-backed Houthis.

Sources close to Hadi told MEE that an angry confrontation took place between the two leaders when Hadi flew to Abu Dhabi in an attempt to patch up differences over who controls Aden's airport, a key supply route for Emirati-backed troops and the Yemeni president himself.

The meeting in late February lasted 10 minutes, took place in a side room in the palace - not the official meeting place for visitors - and ended in a burst of anger and mutual recrimination, sources said.

EXCLUSIVE: Yemen president says UAE acting like occupiers

They then violated him by imposing a no fly zone on him on returning to Aden...the capital of the place he is supposed to be ruling over lol. UAE :scusthov:


As for supporting Saleh, it's funny he is back to power with blessings from the very people who pressed him to step down :heh:
 

thatrapsfan

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@thatknickfan it's basically the UAE plan coming to fruition

The emails that leaked from their embassy in Washington a while back included a plan to "peel away" Saleh from the Houthis. He was the lesser of 2 evils in their eyes. The ultimate plan was to then sideline Saleh by empowering ppl allied with him. I guess Hadi was not as good puppet as they wanted. He dared to question UAE ruling over his hometown of Aden as a protectorate.



EXCLUSIVE: Yemen president says UAE acting like occupiers

They then violated him by imposing a no fly zone on him on returning to Aden...the capital of the place he is supposed to be ruling over lol. UAE :scusthov:


As for supporting Saleh, it's funny he is back to power with blessings from the very people who pressed him to step down :heh:
They’ve been trying to exploit the splits between the two forever, as it’s always been an alliance of convenience, but rest assured Saleh is the one who is driving this and the main planner not vice versa. The Gulf coalition needs him a lot more than he needs them, he would be content with staying it out in Yemen as past 3 years show. He’s tossing them a way out, while crafting a path to return to power with Gulf support. This definitely wasn’t their ideal conclusion when the war first started. From the beginning they felt played by Saleh because of how he allied with Houthi takeover of Sana’a but after 3 years are now back to square one.

You’re certainly right that their preference would be to live with Saleh rather than the Houthis though. Saleh doesn’t have any serious ideological motivation unlike the Houthis and would be amenable to any deal granted that it sees him on top.
 

ZoeGod

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They’ve been trying to exploit the splits between the two forever, as it’s always been an alliance of convenience, but rest assured Saleh is the one who is driving this and the main planner not vice versa. The Gulf coalition needs him a lot more than he needs them, he would be content with staying it out in Yemen as past 3 years show. He’s tossing them a way out, while crafting a path to return to power with Gulf support. This definitely wasn’t their ideal conclusion when the war first started. From the beginning they felt played by Saleh because of how he allied with Houthi takeover of Sana’a but after 3 years are now back to square one.

You’re certainly right that their preference would be to live with Saleh rather than the Houthis though. Saleh doesn’t have any serious ideological motivation unlike the Houthis and would be amenable to any deal granted that it sees him on top.
If Saleh or his son does comes back in charge he will oppose South Yemen autonomy. Reunifying Yemen has been his major legacy. I can see another Yemen civil war 5 years from now accept it will be North vs South Yemen. And the UAE will flex their muscles to aid South Yemen and turn against Saleh. The UAE has turned South Yemen into a vassal state. I could see another potential flash-point.
 

Techniec

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What happens to the bulk of his forces? Do they rally around his son? Where is Ali Mohsen al Atmar and where does he fit into all this?

Lay with dogs you will get fleas, all that tap dancing and alliance shifting, shyt will get you clapped

:ufdup:
 
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