Roster Reload: Blazers should bring back Aldridge...or not?
2014-15 record: 51-31
Pythagorean record: 52-30
Offensive Rating: 105.5 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 101.4 (10th)
Under Contract for 2015-16
Player Salary RPM WARP
Damian Lillard $4,236,287 4.3 12.9
Nicolas Batum $12,235,750 0.4 4.5
Meyers Leonard $3,075,880 -0.6 1.7
C.J. McCollum $2,525,160 1.3 0.4
Possible Free Agents
Player Type RPM WARP
LaMarcus Aldridge Unrestricted 4.4 8.5
Wesley Matthews Unrestricted 3.0 6.0
Robin Lopez Unrestricted 1.5 2.5
Chris Kaman Partially guaranteed -3.7 1.9
Dorell Wright Unrestricted 0.1 1.2
Alonzo Gee Unrestricted -3.8 0.1
Steve Blake Player option -0.8 0.0
Allen Crabbe Non-guaranteed -2.7 -0.4
Joel Freeland Unrestricted -0.6 -0.4
Tim Frazier Non-guaranteed - -0.4
Arron Afflalo Player option -2.3 -2.9
Draft picks
Own first-round pick (23rd)
Projected cap space
Maximum: $39.8 million
Minimum: $0
Likely: $0
What's returning
Just two Portland starters are under contract. Fortunately, one of them is point guard Damian Lillard, who made his second consecutive All-Star appearance at age 24. Lillard's bargain $4.2 million salary gives the Blazers cap flexibility, but not for long. He'll be eligible for a contract extension this fall. Small forward Nicolas Batum suffered through a shooting slump at midseason after spraining his wrist. Expect him to return to form in 2015-16.
Recent Portland first-round picks Meyers Leonard and C.J. McCollum made progress in their development. Leonard added the 3-point shot to his game and benefited from opponents who were slow to update their scouting reports, getting open look after open look. Leonard actually posted a 50/40/90 season, albeit in just 850 minutes of action.
An early injury and the Blazers' unexpected success made McCollum an afterthought as a rookie. He struggled in the first half of Year 2 and could have been buried after the Arron Afflalo trade before Wesley Matthews' injury opened up copious playing time and McCollum took full advantage.
Free agents
The Blazers might have the most interesting set of free agents in the league, starting with franchise anchor LaMarcus Aldridge. The four-time All-Star is an unrestricted free agent and will be at the top of many other teams' wish lists. Though Aldridge told reporters last summer he planned to re-sign in Portland, recent reports have suggested he might look elsewhere. A teammate estimated to The Oregonian that the chances of Aldridge returning were "50-50."
The loss of Matthews to a ruptured Achilles devastated the Blazers' hope of a deep playoff run. Matthews had been prepared to hit free agency coming off his best season, having made nearly three 3-pointers a game at a 38.8 percent clip. Now his health might scare off other suitors. Center Robin Lopez has been a reliable presence in the paint for Portland and figures to get a raise from his $4.8 million salary even in a deep center market.
The Blazers' second unit could also have a different look, depending on a number of options. Guards Afflalo and Steve Blake both have player options. Afflalo might be hard-pressed to top his $7.75 million salary but could add more guaranteed years. Portland has the choice on center Chris Kaman, whose contract is guaranteed for $1 million, and young wing Allen Crabbe (non-guaranteed).
Biggest need: depth
The answer might really be health. After using just two starting lineups all of 2013-14, Terry Stotts had to try 20 different combinations this season because of injuries. Even before Matthews went down, however, the Blazers' bench remained their weak underbelly. Afflalo was expected to help there before being thrust into a starting role. If Leonard and McCollum take another step forward, Portland's bench could be improved by internal development -- assuming the starting lineup returns intact, which won't necessarily be the case.
Biggest question: Will Aldridge re-sign?
For much of the season, with the Blazers atop the Northwest Division and battling for a top-three seed in the Western Conference, Aldridge's return seemed like a formality. The ugly end to Portland's season could change his thinking. Everything else Portland does will hinge on Aldridge's decision. If he stays, the Blazers might keep their core together and hope Matthews comes back close to full strength. If Aldridge leaves, Portland might rebuild around Lillard.
The Blazers can clear nearly $40 million in cap space if everyone opts out and they renounce all their free agents. While that kind of complete makeover is unlikely, Portland would have to retool a roster that has been built around Aldridge's skills.
Ideal offseason
The promise of additional "Portlandia" cameos proves impossible for Aldridge to resist. He commits to a new five-year deal for the maximum salary that carries less risk because of the rising salary cap. Matthews agrees to a two-year deal with a player option after the first year, betting on his ability to bounce back from injury. Lopez signs a three-year, $25 million deal. With Matthews coming back healthy and McCollum and Leonard building on good moments in the second half and postseason, the Blazers don't miss the departed Afflalo and Kaman en route to claiming home-court advantage.
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