Fillerguy
Veteran
Art of the deal
Breaking: China Bans Tech Companies From Buying NVIDIA chips
- Thread starter Seoul Gleou
- Start date
1/5
@SamoBurja
The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has now instructed companies to cease testing and orders of Nvidia chips.
This policy means the growing Chinese AI industry will instead be feeding the Chinese semiconductor sector directly.
2/5
@SamoBurja
This news confirms our analysis in the @bismarckanlys Brief from two weeks ago on the strategic importance of the DeepSeek and Huawei partnership.
[Quoted tweet]
Offering a superior option to China’s stifling universities, DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng has harnessed the country’s mathematics talent and founded an AI lab capable of advancing technology.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief and the first in our new AI series (link below):
3/5
@SamoBurja
Unfortunately, these policies and partnerships mean that in the long run the advantage of the U.S. and Taiwan in high end chips over China will end.
4/5
@SamoBurja
There is now clearly no other way forward but this:
The Western alliance has to reindustrialize and pursue economic self-sufficiency if it wishes to maintain strategic independence from China.
5/5
@newmachines
The EA caucus and AI doomer clique got what they wanted. Now, we wait and see what happens.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
@SamoBurja
The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has now instructed companies to cease testing and orders of Nvidia chips.
This policy means the growing Chinese AI industry will instead be feeding the Chinese semiconductor sector directly.
2/5
@SamoBurja
This news confirms our analysis in the @bismarckanlys Brief from two weeks ago on the strategic importance of the DeepSeek and Huawei partnership.
[Quoted tweet]
Offering a superior option to China’s stifling universities, DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng has harnessed the country’s mathematics talent and founded an AI lab capable of advancing technology.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief and the first in our new AI series (link below):
3/5
@SamoBurja
Unfortunately, these policies and partnerships mean that in the long run the advantage of the U.S. and Taiwan in high end chips over China will end.
4/5
@SamoBurja
There is now clearly no other way forward but this:
The Western alliance has to reindustrialize and pursue economic self-sufficiency if it wishes to maintain strategic independence from China.
5/5
@newmachines
The EA caucus and AI doomer clique got what they wanted. Now, we wait and see what happens.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
1/5
@SamoBurja
The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has now instructed companies to cease testing and orders of Nvidia chips.
This policy means the growing Chinese AI industry will instead be feeding the Chinese semiconductor sector directly.
2/5
@SamoBurja
This news confirms our analysis in the @bismarckanlys Brief from two weeks ago on the strategic importance of the DeepSeek and Huawei partnership.
[Quoted tweet]
Offering a superior option to China’s stifling universities, DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng has harnessed the country’s mathematics talent and founded an AI lab capable of advancing technology.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief and the first in our new AI series (link below):
3/5
@SamoBurja
Unfortunately, these policies and partnerships mean that in the long run the advantage of the U.S. and Taiwan in high end chips over China will end.
4/5
@SamoBurja
There is now clearly no other way forward but this:
The Western alliance has to reindustrialize and pursue economic self-sufficiency if it wishes to maintain strategic independence from China.
5/5
@newmachines
The EA caucus and AI doomer clique got what they wanted. Now, we wait and see what happens.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Yet again a CAC is fukking America over
MajesticLion
Veteran
Back doors.
GhostfacexDOOM
Pro
Didn't the US put restrictions on certain Nvidia GPUs for sale in China that are used for AI? I guess this is the follow up, just do it themselves and push Nvidia out.
y'all gon learn chinese
Cryptocurrency Scarface
Coinbased
1/5
@SamoBurja
The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) has now instructed companies to cease testing and orders of Nvidia chips.
This policy means the growing Chinese AI industry will instead be feeding the Chinese semiconductor sector directly.
2/5
@SamoBurja
This news confirms our analysis in the @bismarckanlys Brief from two weeks ago on the strategic importance of the DeepSeek and Huawei partnership.
[Quoted tweet]
Offering a superior option to China’s stifling universities, DeepSeek's Liang Wenfeng has harnessed the country’s mathematics talent and founded an AI lab capable of advancing technology.
Read the new @bismarckanlys Brief and the first in our new AI series (link below):
3/5
@SamoBurja
Unfortunately, these policies and partnerships mean that in the long run the advantage of the U.S. and Taiwan in high end chips over China will end.
4/5
@SamoBurja
There is now clearly no other way forward but this:
The Western alliance has to reindustrialize and pursue economic self-sufficiency if it wishes to maintain strategic independence from China.
5/5
@newmachines
The EA caucus and AI doomer clique got what they wanted. Now, we wait and see what happens.
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Cac?
The Prince of All Saiyans
Formerly Jisoo Stan & @Twitter
china wised up
Vandelay
Life is absurd. Lean into it.
I still think China is in a demographic time bomb and weren't as great of innovators as the US, plus being authoritarian I thought it stymied innovation and freedom.
I still think those things, but the remainder of the free world is seemingly ready to align with them especially as the US is basically run by a mob boss; less Capone and more Peter Gotti than anything.
They're taking the approach, run your country as you want, we just want our economy and our population to prosper. The US on the orher hand, is just trying to very transparently to only enrich the 1%. This administration just doesn't realize nothing is set in stone and the world order was always fragile, especially when you have a bunch of dumbass, deep throating, yes men aligned with a severely cognitively declined narcissist in Trump.
One thing I patently got wrong was the Jack Ma situation. No businessman should ever be above the state. This is not to say the state is ever infallible, and although I don't think he was a malicious actor, that kind of overreach is why we have CEOs dictating policy right now.
1/12
@kyleichan
The crossover point in AI hardware performance that @rwang07 and I predicted is happening faster than I thought.
FT: China bans tech companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips
China bans tech companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips
2/12
@kyleichan
Here’s the crossover point that we wrote about in our Foreign Policy piece:
Leashing Chinese AI Needs Smart Chip Controls
3/12
@kyleichan
More from Ray:
[Quoted tweet]
3) FT cited an industry insider said there is going to be enough domestic supply to meet demand without having to buy $NVDA chips.
I personally think:
a. what's the definition of "enough" here? (Is it Apple to Apple comparison because the chips goes to China from NV and domestic chips are very different in hardware and software).
b. How much chips production capacity are enough for domestic supply without $NVDA chips, and can china fulfill that easily?
4/12
@rydcunningham
I don’t have full data yet on 910D, Cambricon 思远590/690, Enflame L600 or T-HEAD Zhenwu, but willing to bet they’re at or crossed the rubicon too. we’ve hit the inflection point
[Quoted tweet]
6/13
we calculate only a handful of domestic chips meet that bar today (~50 tok/sec throughput, 0.14 tok/joule energy efficiency on 8B param models)
of those, the ones w/n parity of A100s are the Huawei Ascend 910C, Enflame 云燧T20, MetaX 曦云C500, and Moffett AI SparseOne series
(we also expect the Enflame 燧原S60 + L600, MetaX 曦云C600, Ascend 910D, and Cambricon 思元590 to be in this range, but data isn't available yet)
machineyearning.io/i/1709394…
5/12
@kyleichan
Very helpful
6/12
@kkamalx
There is no need for them to buy H20. Its literally 15% capacity of H100. Their Ascend Chip is better than H20 in many ways.
7/12
@alysha_lobo
When I was in Shenzhen a few weeks ago and met with govt officials, they hinted at this unofficially. China couldn’t be pushed into a corner and expected to make do with sub par and underpowered chips from Nvidia
[Quoted tweet]
Hahahahahaha ask the ones who attended my livestream!
Look at the date
8/12
@mbilal8800
What about HBM ?
China will run out of stockpiled HMB, and they cannot produce the latest version themselves.
Isn't that still a potential bottleneck ?
9/12
@macrobreakdown
Surprised /search?q=#NVDA stock not reacted strongly to this news as I thought the recent run up was due to ability to sell to China?
10/12
@MerahPutihViews
They've probably relied on espionage and IP theft for that, as is par for the course for the CCP.
We must ensure the Chinese surveillance state does not get exported via the internet. The Solomon Islands case is already worrying...
11/12
@zaft_op9
Probably ban on china specific only versions?
12/12
@Hana1957641
Fake news
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
@kyleichan
The crossover point in AI hardware performance that @rwang07 and I predicted is happening faster than I thought.
FT: China bans tech companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips
China bans tech companies from buying Nvidia’s AI chips
2/12
@kyleichan
Here’s the crossover point that we wrote about in our Foreign Policy piece:
Leashing Chinese AI Needs Smart Chip Controls
3/12
@kyleichan
More from Ray:
[Quoted tweet]
3) FT cited an industry insider said there is going to be enough domestic supply to meet demand without having to buy $NVDA chips.
I personally think:
a. what's the definition of "enough" here? (Is it Apple to Apple comparison because the chips goes to China from NV and domestic chips are very different in hardware and software).
b. How much chips production capacity are enough for domestic supply without $NVDA chips, and can china fulfill that easily?
4/12
@rydcunningham
I don’t have full data yet on 910D, Cambricon 思远590/690, Enflame L600 or T-HEAD Zhenwu, but willing to bet they’re at or crossed the rubicon too. we’ve hit the inflection point
[Quoted tweet]
6/13
we calculate only a handful of domestic chips meet that bar today (~50 tok/sec throughput, 0.14 tok/joule energy efficiency on 8B param models)
of those, the ones w/n parity of A100s are the Huawei Ascend 910C, Enflame 云燧T20, MetaX 曦云C500, and Moffett AI SparseOne series
(we also expect the Enflame 燧原S60 + L600, MetaX 曦云C600, Ascend 910D, and Cambricon 思元590 to be in this range, but data isn't available yet)
machineyearning.io/i/1709394…
5/12
@kyleichan
Very helpful
6/12
@kkamalx
There is no need for them to buy H20. Its literally 15% capacity of H100. Their Ascend Chip is better than H20 in many ways.
7/12
@alysha_lobo
When I was in Shenzhen a few weeks ago and met with govt officials, they hinted at this unofficially. China couldn’t be pushed into a corner and expected to make do with sub par and underpowered chips from Nvidia
[Quoted tweet]
Hahahahahaha ask the ones who attended my livestream!
Look at the date
8/12
@mbilal8800
What about HBM ?
China will run out of stockpiled HMB, and they cannot produce the latest version themselves.
Isn't that still a potential bottleneck ?
9/12
@macrobreakdown
Surprised /search?q=#NVDA stock not reacted strongly to this news as I thought the recent run up was due to ability to sell to China?
10/12
@MerahPutihViews
They've probably relied on espionage and IP theft for that, as is par for the course for the CCP.
We must ensure the Chinese surveillance state does not get exported via the internet. The Solomon Islands case is already worrying...
11/12
@zaft_op9
Probably ban on china specific only versions?
12/12
@Hana1957641
Fake news
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
1/11
@tphuang
This only means China does not want H20 & 6000D. Does not mean China is saying no to all Nvidia chips (like proposed B30A).
Saying no to older chips that can easily be replaced domestically adds leverage to the ongoing negotiation bw China & US.
Reminder that Alibaba has its own AI chips, designed by T-Head, that have been used in large 16384 clusters.
It just doesn't want to buy stuff from HW, which is why it continues to order Nvidia chips.
Looks to me that CAC is telling them that why are you spending money on lower end chips? Buy Ascend chips if your own stash isn't sufficient.
2/11
@DJ_Tao
It’s hard to see this as anything other than an eventual decoupling from /search?q=#NVDA, even if it starts only in the H20s and 6000s. After all, why would they want chips with a US backdoor?
3/11
@tphuang
Well, they can figure out how to remove US backdoor. And they are still smuggling in massive amount of Nvidia chips.
4/11
@janekm
The thing is, Alibaba is a big cloud compute provider, so of course they want NVidia chips so long as that’s what their customers use…
5/11
@nullctl
This line only works if we think about hardware as a standalone thing.
If you factor in CUDA, then it makes sense to say no to everything regardless of how painful it might be.
This is simply because every effort spent developing for adversarial CUDA is an effort not spent developing on and improving friendly local alternatives.
What's the point of contributing to the CUDA ecosystem when you'll never be able to fully reap the benefits?
Sure CUDA -> others translators might help, but probably comes with significant performance sacrifices.
6/11
@kkamalx
Not to mention they actually fear that we have backdoor in H20 chips. Given everything going around in the world and what we do, I dont blame the Chinese.
7/11
@JeffBoeker
Huawei is a competitor to Alibaba and Baidu so why would they want to buy from a Huawei if they have a choice?
8/11
@wanderer8888
华为的芯片部门应该独立出来
9/11
@DollarCakeCry
Its a good move, give us newer chips and we buy, and if not we will use our own and keep pushing for more advanced ones (in the end this will happen no matter what, but how faster it does depends on these type of policies)
10/11
@racetrack275
B30A is worse than the GB202 6000D.
They don’t have to ban that because there’ll be no demand.
11/11
@UncleSam303
My guess is China want a Nvidia/AMD gpu for AI frontier training. And for inferencing, domestic chips should be sufficient
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
@tphuang
This only means China does not want H20 & 6000D. Does not mean China is saying no to all Nvidia chips (like proposed B30A).
Saying no to older chips that can easily be replaced domestically adds leverage to the ongoing negotiation bw China & US.
Reminder that Alibaba has its own AI chips, designed by T-Head, that have been used in large 16384 clusters.
It just doesn't want to buy stuff from HW, which is why it continues to order Nvidia chips.
Looks to me that CAC is telling them that why are you spending money on lower end chips? Buy Ascend chips if your own stash isn't sufficient.
2/11
@DJ_Tao
It’s hard to see this as anything other than an eventual decoupling from /search?q=#NVDA, even if it starts only in the H20s and 6000s. After all, why would they want chips with a US backdoor?
3/11
@tphuang
Well, they can figure out how to remove US backdoor. And they are still smuggling in massive amount of Nvidia chips.
4/11
@janekm
The thing is, Alibaba is a big cloud compute provider, so of course they want NVidia chips so long as that’s what their customers use…
5/11
@nullctl
This line only works if we think about hardware as a standalone thing.
If you factor in CUDA, then it makes sense to say no to everything regardless of how painful it might be.
This is simply because every effort spent developing for adversarial CUDA is an effort not spent developing on and improving friendly local alternatives.
What's the point of contributing to the CUDA ecosystem when you'll never be able to fully reap the benefits?
Sure CUDA -> others translators might help, but probably comes with significant performance sacrifices.
6/11
@kkamalx
Not to mention they actually fear that we have backdoor in H20 chips. Given everything going around in the world and what we do, I dont blame the Chinese.
7/11
@JeffBoeker
Huawei is a competitor to Alibaba and Baidu so why would they want to buy from a Huawei if they have a choice?
8/11
@wanderer8888
华为的芯片部门应该独立出来
9/11
@DollarCakeCry
Its a good move, give us newer chips and we buy, and if not we will use our own and keep pushing for more advanced ones (in the end this will happen no matter what, but how faster it does depends on these type of policies)
10/11
@racetrack275
B30A is worse than the GB202 6000D.
They don’t have to ban that because there’ll be no demand.
11/11
@UncleSam303
My guess is China want a Nvidia/AMD gpu for AI frontier training. And for inferencing, domestic chips should be sufficient
To post tweets in this format, more info here: https://www.thecoli.com/threads/tips-and-tricks-for-posting-the-coli-megathread.984734/post-52211196
Zeihan keeps talking about that, but with China investing in AI but also robots
The demographic time bomb isn't that much of an issue.
Apple literally give them the blueprint to start Huawei cellphones (in addition to Huawei's MateBook laptop resembling a MacBook)
And damn OP that Made in China song is retarded but hilarious