#BREAKING: House Speaker Paul Ryan considering retirement after 2018 midterms

King Static X

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Wisconsin, like everywhere else in the country, falls victim to the "oh it's not the presidential election so who cares" fallacy.

Walker won in 2010 during the midterms with 1.1 million votes (the democratic challenger received 1mil)
Walker won his recall election in June 2012 with 1.3million votes (the democratic challenger received 1.1)
OBAMA WON WISCONSIN IN NOV 2012 WITH 1.6MILLION VOTES (Mitt Romney received 1.4)

DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ARE ALWAYS TO BLAME FOR THE BULK OF THEIR shytTY ELECTION LOSES.
You're not wrong :francis:.
 

tru_m.a.c

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You're not wrong :francis:.
Bro it's mad infuriating. Pretty much 500k people in Wisconsin completely left their fellow democrats for dead in 2010 and june of 2012. How can you be one of the 500k bytching about scott walker or any republican that you allowed to get elected?

fukk turning your back on conservatives in your family/at work, what about the dems/liberals that dip on you when they're needed?
 

No1

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Bro it's mad infuriating. Pretty much 500k people in Wisconsin completely left their fellow democrats for dead in 2010 and june of 2012. How can you be one of the 500k bytching about scott walker or any republican that you allowed to get elected?

fukk turning your back on conservatives in your family/at work, what about the dems/liberals that dip on you when they're needed?
You still haven't responded to my rebuttal to your last post, which pretty summarizes all of this and left you with the question of what your strategy is. But I don't know your history in political organizing. Those people in 2012 are not Democratic voters, they were Obama voters. There was a reason he warned Democrats about trying to run away from him and the ones who did not (i.e. Michigan, did well enough to win). This will fall on deaf ears, but maybe someone out there will get the point like I used to pick stuff up from the old know the ledge as a teenager, but all of these complaints assumes a rational voter that looks at all of the issues and the overall picture and makes decisions based on that. This is the entire reason Democrats are looking for someone charismatic to go up against Trump. Black voter support for HRC rivaled the support for Gore in 2000 (that is worse than John Kerry). There was that huge blow up between me and BrownPride (who disappeared) when I told him to stop telling people to let Trump win to blow shyt up to start from scratch and that they should vote HRC. But that sort of mentality of the Democrats have not tangibly impacted the lives of the people around me is prevalent. Campaigns may not do much to persuade, but they can do a lot to mobilize.

The majority of those who didn't vote say they have no regrets. You have to make the damn case to them to vote because the average voter is not you or me. Yeah, it might make you upset that people are complaining while not participating, but they genuinely don't see the point or are not encouraged to get out.

A study by political scientist Seth Hill finds that, “Swing voters contribute on average 4.1 percentage points to change in party vote shares, while change in turnout influences outcomes by 8.6 points.” In other words, the impact of mobilization on the electorate is about double the impact of persuasion.

In a paper analyzing 49 field experiments, political scientists Joshua Kalla and David Broockman have shown parties have little capacity to persuade, but that campaigns can do much to mobilize voters, noting that, “our partner canvassing organization had effects of nearly 2.5 percentage points on turnout in the 2016 Presidential election.” The path to victory then, is energizing and delivering to the base. Yet far too often, Democratic campaigns are designed to win over mushy milquetoast (and mythical) moderates, rather than excite the base.

A Failure of Mobilization
Before the 2016 election, Democrats like Senator Chuck Schumer (NY) bragged that, “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

As the chart below shows, the preferred candidate of the poor was no-one, with nearly 1-in-2 not voting. Schumer was correct that Democrats performed well with the wealthy, but those voters make up a tiny, albeit influential, sliver of the electorate. These low-income nonvoters would overwhelmingly prefer Democrats if they voted, and would have been more than enough to shift the election outcome in favor of Democrats.


JD_ReportCharts_S2_VotingByIncome_1200x650.png


Poor voter turnout from low-income voters was at least partially for lack of trying, as data from the Cooperative Congressional Election Studies 2016 show. The chart below shows reported contact rates by income. Even when examining only individuals who were matched to a voter file, or matched to a voter file and registered Democratic in a swing state (people we would expect Democrats to contact), there are deep class divides in reported contact. Among registered Democrats living in a swing state* earning less than $50,000, 65 percent reported contact, compared to an 80 percent contact rate among Democrats living in a swing state earning more than $100,000.


JD_ReportCharts_S2_ContactByIncome_1200x550.png


Democrats also struggled to mobilize people of color, with Black turnout dropping off dramatically from 2012, and persistent racial gaps in turnout remaining. One possible cause is lack of aggressive mobilization. As the chart below shows, even when examining only individuals who are registered as Democrats, there were racial disparities in contact. There is also strong evidence that descriptive representation (young people, people of color, and women holding political office) increases turnout.


JD_ReportCharts_S2_ContactByRace_1200x550.png
The point? Get good candidates that energize people and knock on doors and don't Republicans outspend you by 6 million dollars on college campuses every again. I just want to fukking win.
 
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