BREXIT - June 23rd 2016 vote - *ARTICLE 50 TRIGGERED!*

Scoop

All Star
Joined
Jun 17, 2012
Messages
6,041
Reputation
-2,585
Daps
9,520
Reppin
Tampa, FL
Here’s a rundown of the key times to watch Thursday through early Friday morning.

Time (U.S. Eastern in parenthesis) Event
Thurs. 7 a.m. (Thurs. 2.a.m.) Polling stations open
Thurs. 10 p.m. (Thurs. 5 p.m.) Polling stations close, no exit polls
Thurs. Around 11:30 p.m. (Thurs. 6:30 p.m.) First announcements on voter turnout
Fri. 12:30 a.m. (Thurs. 7:30 p.m.) Results expected for first counting areas
Fri. 3-4 a.m. (Thurs. 10-11 p.m.) Results from half of the counting areas are in
Fri. Around 5 a.m. (midnight) About 80% of counting areas have reported results
Fri. 7 a.m. (Fri. 2 a.m.) All votes are likely to have been counted and the official result is expected shortly after.

-----------------------

Not from the UK at all but this is getting too good to not have a thread for it



This is a debate stage in the UK :russ::

GettyImages-539253626-714x476.jpg


5 takeaways from EU referendum debate
TV debate saw Brexit win the night and Boris take the flak.

By
ALEX SPENCE AND TOM MCTAGUE

6/10/16, 1:13 AM CET

LONDON — It will have been an anxious Thursday night for David Cameron.

After making the case for Britain’s membership in the European Union to about 4 million viewers on ITV on Tuesday night, the prime minister was a spectator this time as a trio of senior female politicians took to the stage for Remain in the latest TV debate.

Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon, Labour’s Angela Eagle and Tory Energy Secretary Amber Rudd came out swinging for the Remain side, but their opponents from the Leave camp — Energy Minister Andrea Leadsom, Labour MP Gisela Stuart, and Boris Johnson — gave as good as they got.

One of a succession of big TV events planned before the June 23 vote, the ITV broadcast was the first to use a conventional debate format, with politicians from both sides arguing directly with each other. It was long and hot-tempered, and left the referendum outcome looking harder than ever to call. Here are five takeaways:

1. Brexit buoyed
This was a clear win for Leave. Expect a blizzard of action from Downing Street in the coming days as they try to get back on the front foot.

In the Brexit corner, Johnson, Leadsom and Stuart seemed well-prepared, unified and composed. They appeared to grow in confidence as the debate wore on, repeatedly urging voters to “take back control” and ignore the government’s “miserable” warnings about the dangers of leaving.

Immigration dominated the early exchanges, setting the tone for the rest of the debate and leaving the Inners on the back foot.

Led by the combative Tory minister Rudd, the three Remainers repeatedly attacked Johnson and the Brexit campaign for spreading “lies,” “falsehoods” and “pure fantasy,” but failed to land a serious blow on the economy — their strongest line of attack.

Sturgeon again proved to be the strongest left-wing voice in British politics, but it’s unclear how much influence she has south of the border. Cameron will need to come out all guns blazing in the remaining debates to undo some of the damage.

2. In the battle of the slogans, Leave wins with “Take back control”
The Conservative Party won the last general election by relentlessly pursuing a single campaign message: that Labour could not be trusted with the economy. The Remain campaign was supposed to be following the script this time round, but it appears to be the Brexit camp which has alighted on the stronger message: taking back control.

Again and again, the three Outers repeated the catch-all slogan, whether it was debating the economy, immigration or even, curiously, endangered wildlife.

Labour’s Stuart, the quietly spoken grandmother, originally from Germany, was according to some early polls the star of the night. She calmly, effectively made the case for Britain leaving, urging voters to believe in themselves. The Bavarian Blairite, who only moved to the U.K. in the 1970s, said: “I’m an immigrant. I believe in this country and I wouldn’t dream of talking it down.” It was a potent message — the European telling the British native there’s nothing to fear outside the bloc.

3. The rise of Rudd
Rudd, the Conservative energy secretary, was forceful and passionate on the Remain side, overshadowing the better-known, more experienced Sturgeon.
A close ally of Chancellor George Osborne, Rudd’s profile has been growing recently, as one of the more media-friendly cabinet ministers making the case for Britain staying in. Her stock will rise after Thursday night. Some viewers will have been turned off by her attacks on Johnson, but in the battle of potential Tory leaders, it was Rudd that seemed more prime ministerial. “This could be the making of Rudd,” Tom Bradby, presenter of ITV’s 10 o’clock news bulletin, tweeted.

4. Boris takes a battering
In his first live, prime-time TV performance of the referendum campaign, Johnson was a marked man. Vote Leave’s most recognizable figure was attacked directly and repeatedly by the Remainers. “I fear the only number Boris is interested in is the number 10,” his cabinet colleague Rudd said early on, and other scripted jibes about Johnson’s leadership ambitions soon followed.

Eagle: “Boris, you don’t seem to care about the millions of jobs that will be at risk if we leave the EU. You only seem to care about one job.”

Sturgeon: “He’s not interested in your job or anybody else’s job, he’s only interested in David Cameron’s job.”

Rudd again: “He’s the life and soul of the party, but he’s not the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening.”

The taunts drew laughter from some in the audience, cheers from the political journalists — but didn’t get a rise from Johnson himself. “I missed the insult,” he said at one point, brushing off a barb from Eagle.

The former mayor of London was unusually subdued by his standards. He stuck to the script. “Take back control of our democracy,” he argued. “That is fundamentally what this is all about.”

5. Is Brexit a right-wing plot?
Remain lost the debate, but there was one area of attack that may have landed with some voters.

Not on the economy — Brexit will make us all poorer was the message voters were supposed to come away with from Thursday night’s debate but didn’t. Instead, it was the prospect of Brexit strengthening the right flank of the Conservative Party — the likes of Michael Gove and Johnson — that seemed to be Remain’s strongest point of the night.

It was an odd argument for a fellow Tory to make, but Rudd did. Workers’ rights were “on the ballot paper,” she said, and would be under threat in the “little England” vision of the Brexiteers. Public services, including the NHS, would also be under threat if they had more power.

Sturgeon and Eagle agreed. “Whatever you do, do not trust a word Boris Johnson says on the NHS,” Sturgeon said.

5 takeaways from EU referendum debate
 
Last edited:

Scoop

All Star
Joined
Jun 17, 2012
Messages
6,041
Reputation
-2,585
Daps
9,520
Reppin
Tampa, FL
EU Referendum: Massive swing to Brexit – with just 12 days to go

Exclusive: polling carried out for ‘The Independent’ shows that 55 per cent of UK voters intend to vote for Britain to leave the EU in the 23 June referendum

blank.gif

10K
brexit-michael-gove-boris-johnson.jpg

Michael Gove and Boris Johnson have helped propel the Leave campaign into a significant lead over their Remain rivals Getty
The campaign to take Britain out of the EU has opened up a remarkable 10-point lead over the Remain camp, according to an exclusive poll for The Independent.

The survey of 2,000 people by ORB found that 55 per cent believe the UK should leave the EU (up four points since our last poll in April), while 45 per cent want it to remain (down four points). These figures are weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote. It is by far the biggest lead the Leave camp has enjoyed since ORB began polling the EU issue for The Independent a year ago, when it was Remain who enjoyed a 10-point lead. Now the tables have turned.

Even when the findings are not weighted for turnout, Leave is on 53 per cent (up three points since April) and Remain on 47 per cent (down three). The online poll, taken on Wednesday and Thursday, suggests the Out camp has achieved momentum at the critical time ahead of the 23 June referendum.

Differential turnout could prove crucial. ORB found that 78 per cent of Leave supporters say they will definitely vote – describing themselves as a “10” on a scale of 0-10, while only 66 per cent of Remain supporters say the same.

The results will heighten fears in the Remain campaign that it is losing ground among Labour supporters, who are seen as critical to securing victory for it. According to ORB, 56 per cent of people who voted for Labour at last year’s general election now back Remain when turnout is taken into account, but a dangerously high 44 per cent support Leave. Only 38 per cent of Tory voters endorse David Cameron’s stance by backing Remain, while 62 per cent support Leave.

Many people seem ready to vote for Brexit even though the poll shows they believe it involves some risk and think the economy is more important than immigration – widely seen as the Leave camp’s trump card.

The one crumb of comfort for the Remain camp is that when people were asked to predict the referendum result, the average figures were 52 per cent for Remain and 48 per cent for Leave. This “wisdom of the crowd” polling proved accurate during Ireland’s referendum on gay marriage last year.

The ORB survey highlights the stark generational differences over the EU. Seven out of 10 people aged 18-24 back Remain and 30 per cent Leave. Support for Leave rises up the age scale to 64 per cent among those aged 55 and over (figures weighted for turnout). Crucially, just over half (56 per cent) of 18-24 year-olds say they will definitely vote, compared to more than 80 per cent of those aged 55 and over.

Support for EU membership is highest in Scotland, with 60 per cent backing Remain. But a majority of people in every other region of Great Britain favour withdrawal when turnout is taken into account. In London, seen as a strong area for the Remain campaign, only 44 per cent back staying in the EU and 56 per cent favour voting to leave. This is due to the turnout factor. Only 66 per cent of people in London say they will definitely vote, the lowest of any region.

Take our EU referendum poll:
However, warnings about the economic impact of Brexit appear to have hit home. According to ORB, eight out of 10 people – and of Conservative voters – think leaving the EU would pose some risk, and only 19 per cent think it would pose no risk at all. But a majority of both groups are still prepared to take the risk.
Similarly, 52 per cent of people agree with the statement that the economy is a bigger issue than immigration when considering how to vote in the referendum, while 37 per cent disagree.

Seven out of 10 people think the campaign has been too negative so far, while only 15 per cent disagree. The Leave camp will see this finding as a sign that what it has dubbed Remain’s “Project Fear” has not worked.

Four out of 10 people believe that whatever the referendum result, it will not have much impact on their everyday life, but more people (44 per cent) disagree with this statement.

Polling experts say the result is still too close to call, and that there has been a late swing to the “status quo” option in previous referendums, including the one on Scottish independence in 2014. They also point out that telephone polls consistently give Remain a higher rating than online surveys.


Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?
Weighted for turnout
Now April
Remain 45 per cent 49 per cent
Leave 55 per cent 51 per cent

Headline Figure (not weighted for turnout)
Now April
Remain 47 per cent 50 per cent
Leave 53 per cent 50 per cent

What people think the result will be (average prediction)
Remain 52 per cent
Leave 48 per cent


How much of a risk do you think leaving the EU would pose?
A great deal of risk 26 per cent
Some risk 55 per cent
No risk at all 19 per cent


When considering how to vote, the economy is a bigger issue than immigration
Agree 52 per cent
Disagree 37 per cent
Don't know 11 per cent


Whether we decide to leave the EU or to remain, the result won't have much impact on my daily life
Agree 40 per cent
Disagree 44 per cent
Don't know 17 per cent


I feel the campaign so far has been too negative
Agree 69 per cent
Disagree 15 per cent
Don't know 15 per cent

Leave opens up massive lead in exclusive Brexit poll for The Independent
 

plushcarpet

Superstar
Joined
Aug 12, 2015
Messages
3,536
Reputation
440
Daps
13,027
that's shady how they cut her off right as she's making some points

can't have our politicians being criticized openly this new world :coffee:
 

plushcarpet

Superstar
Joined
Aug 12, 2015
Messages
3,536
Reputation
440
Daps
13,027
I don't even see the issue with profanity being on cable TV.
Neither do I

first curse words I learned, I heard from the adults around me, not from TV :yeshrug:

Now i'm not saying we go overboard and have sailors on TV :whoa:
 

Scoop

All Star
Joined
Jun 17, 2012
Messages
6,041
Reputation
-2,585
Daps
9,520
Reppin
Tampa, FL
Germany and Brexit: Berlin has everything to lose if Britain leaves
By Philipp Wittrock


AFP
British Prime Minister David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Will the British really leave the EU? For Germany it would be a catastrophe. And yet Chancellor Merkel is still avoiding strident anti-Brexit warnings lest she boost its supporters.

Brexit
Alle Artikel

Lesen Sie diesen Artikel auf deutsch.

The world's most powerful woman doesn't dare. Of course Angela Merkel is urgently hoping that Britain will stay a part of the European Union, but the German chancellor prefers not to say it too loudly.

On June 2, Merkel made a small exception, which the British media in turn described as her "strongest intervention in the Brexit debate so far" and even a breaking of her "self-imposed silence." During a press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Merkel's Chancellery, a BBC journalist asked the German leader if the possibility of Brexit concerned her.
In a lengthy yet circumspect reply, she said negotiations were better conducted internally than publicly. She didn't really offer anything memorable -- except, perhaps, at the end of the press conference, when she offered: "I don't want to give rise to any misunderstandings -- the people in Britain are the ones who have a say here, who are the ones to decide."

But the angst is mounting in German political circles -- fears of Brexit. So too are fears that passionate appeals from Germany for Britain to remain in the EU may have exactly the opposite effect, instead providing fuel to the Brexiteers.

The Message from the UK: Stay Out of It

It has been reported that the Brits themselves requested German and other EU leaders to remain restraint on the issue. British Prime Minister David Cameron reportedly made the request as he negotiated for special concession for the United Kingdom in February with other EU leaders in order to make continued membership more attractive to his people. The message was to stay out of the debate -- no interviews with the British press and no appearances addressing the issue in the UK, so that Brexit backers wouldn't be able to turn around and say: This is exactly what bothers us, this endless paternalism and heavy-handedness from Berlin and Brussels. In a recent interview with SPIEGEL ONLINE, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said, it would be "intelligent and correct to remain as silent as possible."

At the same time, the German government has many reasons not to keep mum, because the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU would be a disaster for Germany.

And it's by no means just the threat of turbulence on the financial markets or other economic consequences that concerns German politicians. Britain is Germany's third largest trading partner, with an export volume of €€89 billion in 2016. More than 2,500 German companies are active in the country. Conversely, around 3,000 British companies also have subsidiaries in Germany. In the absence of the single market, these tight connections would become more complicated.

For Germany, however, what is at stake is more fundamental. European consensus is an intrinsic part of Germany's postwar identity; the aim of a united Europe as an official national goal is anchored in the German federal constitution. If Britain were to bid adieu, it would deal a blow to the EU from which it would be very difficult to recover. And this at a time when the EU already finds itself in the middle of an historic crisis.

In Berlin, politicians fear that Brexit would further strengthen those forces that appear to be pulling the EU apart. In the east, where much-cited European solidarity has been pushed to the limits. In the south, where economies still haven't recovered from the euro crisis. And everywhere where right-wing populists and euroskeptics are on the rise. If the Brits go, it could send the signal that Europe is cracking.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble believes it is entirely plausible that other European countries could follow the British example and then leave the EU. "That cannot be ruled out -- it is conceivable theoretically," the politician, a member of Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union, told SPIEGEL. "How, for example, would the Netherlands react, as a country that has traditionally had very close ties to Britain?"

German Needs Britain as a Counterweight to France

But that's not all. The cherry picking and eternal special requests from other EU member states in the future may be irritating, but there's an even bigger issue: Germany needs Britain inside the EU as a partner and as a market-friendly counterweight to socialist ruled France. This has become even more important with the recent cooling of relations between Germany and France, a pairing once described as the motor of Europe. In many areas -- including the single market, free trade, competitiveness, cutting of red tape, and particularly in economic and finance policy -- Germany and Britain have similar interests.

Without Britain, which is also a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a nuclear power, the EU's importance in foreign and security policy would also decline dramatically. "This Europe would be taken less seriously," warns Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel of the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). Merkel's foreign policy advisor in the Chancellery, Christoph Heusgen, says: "Without having the British as a partner, the EU would not have the same weight as an EU with the British." And even though Britain wouldn't, of course, disappear from the world stage, Brexit would still force Germany to take on greater responsibility within the EU.

It's little surprise, then, that officials in the Chancellery these days are closely monitoring each new poll in Britain. In or out? At the moment, the race is extremely close, but it is safe to say that Brexit fans have definitely caught up in recent weeks.

So far, the word has been that Merkel still has no plans to woo the British in the final leg of the Brexit campaign. But behind the scenes, officials have been preparing for the worst for some time now. In his SPIEGEL interview, however, Merkel's finance minister, Schäuble, sought to reassure, saying, "Europe will also work without Britain if necessary."

Germany and Brexit: Berlin has everything to lose if Britain leaves - SPIEGEL ONLINE
 
Top