Ukraine wants to stand up to Russia so it turns to the US.
The US gives Ukraine full support and reaches out to its European allies to put several feet unto Russia's neck.
Russia has no choice but to threaten Nuclear war in order not to lose the Ukrainian territory to foreigners, used nuclear weapons as a deterrent for military deployment into Ukraine from several countries.
The US and the allies stick to economically attacking Russia. Russia is forced to change it's economic models to survive this ordeal.
Russia is livid at the US.
Meanwhile, an american citizen slips up in Russia. Russia does not interpret the case as just a civil case, but a case to flip the tables unto the US AND get a Russian asset at the same damn time. Their way of showing that "we're not gonna be lenient with our enemies, but we're always open to negotiations". So if the US want Griner back, they may as well bow to Russian pressure and give the arms dealers in exchange.
This is chess, not checkers.
