California is losing it's luster

Chrishaune

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California population growth slowest since 1900 as residents leave, immigration decelerates


The Golden State remains stuck in the slow lane when it comes to population.

The number of Californians increased to 39.96 million, with new data from the Department of Finance showing mostly downward trends.

They are rooted in fewer births, coupled with increased deaths among an aging population. The Golden State, however, has also seen changes in international migration, along with more and more residents leaving the state.

The estimates, which indicate that California’s population grew by 141,300 people between July 1, 2018, and July 1, 2019, nonetheless signal a 0.35% growth rate, “down from 0.57% for the prior 12 months — the two lowest recorded growth rates since 1900,” department officials underscored

According to the agency, natural increase (with 452,200 births and 271,400 deaths) accounted for an additional 180,800 people to the state. Still, these gains were offset by losses in net migration — that is, the total amount of people moving into the state minus the total amount of people moving out. Notably, said Eddie Hunsinger, a demographer with the Department of Finance, even though the net international migration added to the state’s population, there was substantial negative domestic net migration, which resulted in a loss of 39,500 residents. This, said the department, marks “the first time since the 2010 Census that California has had more people leaving the state than moving in from abroad or other states.”

William Frey, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Friday’s findings follow a trend that demographers have seen over several years. While California has always seen domestic outmigration — people moving to other states — the rate has grown over the last decade.

“For some years after the Great Recession housing crunch, California was losing domestic migrants — but not as much as it could have. Now that’s starting to push up again,” Frey said.

The most common destinations for those leaving the state were Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Texas and Washington, he said, as the economy has picked up throughout the west and other parts of the country. Aside from a lower cost-of-living, some Californians are drawn to areas with no state income tax.

In Los Angeles County, the region saw overall outmigration even when counting the influx of immigrants. Orange, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara and San Diego counties also had negative net migration, even with gains from immigration.

“California was the place, the big destination, for people around the country and around the world,” he said. “It’s lost its luster a little bit. The question is whether it’s short-term or long-term. I think the jury is still out. To me, it’s kind of a stunner to see that California is losing migrants. The land of dreams and the gold rush and all that, now turned the other direction.”

Dowell Myers, an expert in demographics at USC, said the population growth in California has been slowing down for three years. The state recovered from the recession he said, but as things have “perked up” in California, not everyone has felt the benefits.

“Jobs are getting better, but people’s recovery has turned around and gone bad,” Myers said. “I think because of housing prices. The peak millennial is turning 30 in 2020. It’s a pivotal moment and they can’t find housing. So people aren’t coming as much, and they’re leaving here more.”

Myers noted that a big part of the lack of growth is the decline in birth rates — something he attributes to young couples’ inability to “find a nest,” or affordable housing, where they would want to raise children.

“People need to feel secure in having housing before they can start a family, " Myers said. “Other people won’t come because they have heard the news.”

He added: “We better get our act together pretty darn quick. This is as good as it’s going to get. People should be flourishing. The fact that the number of babies is going down is really worrisome.”

Los Angeles County saw a 17% decline in the amount of children in the area over the last decade, Myers said.

“We are worse off and we have the best economy,” he said.


“It’s not sustainable,” Myers added. “I think we need to have enough housing for workers to live in and for people to start families. Older people have the right to stay in their houses, but we need to make room for the young people or else we will turn into a retirement city by the sea.”
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This is primarily driven by COL... not waning appeal. Ask anyone whose left California if they'd still leave if not for that.

I've lived in many places in the U.S. and SoCal is easily the best region. I personally plan on buying property in L.A. or Long Beach in the next five years. :yeshrug:
 
murksiderock

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adgv85 said:
This is primarily driven by COL... not waning appeal. Ask anyone whose left California if they'd still leave if not for that.

I've lived in many places in the U.S. and SoCal is easily the best region. I personally plan on buying property in L.A. or Long Beach in the next five years. :yeshrug:
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That's all it is, is COL...which is a major issue the state gotta figure how to deal with for the future decades...

This imminent recession as well as the eventual tech burst could help reset the market, but the social issues that persist in Cali will take some special kind of leadership to solve...

But as you said, it mostly isn't waning appeal. I can't tell you how often I meet someone who tells me they want to either visit or move to Cali, multiple times a month. Asking me what LA or The Bay or Sac is like...

I would love to move back, selfishly, and probably would if I didn't have kids, but my girls are gonna be out here and at this stage in their lives I'm not compromising my selfish desires to be way across the country from them. Not happening...

Besides that, I'd move back instantly, and still may come back when they get older. There is nowhere better to live in The States if you can afford it, I have always believed that and continue to feel that way!
 
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