Your assuming a mix of populations. There will be groups of people without the vaccine who organize around the fact they are anti-vaxxers.
It’s Darwinism in real time, but a side effect is passports will become a more popular idea to keep the unvaccinated From spreading it amongst themselves.
Even still. At this rate of vaccination by July 4th we could have more than 70% with one shot (which is very good protection, enough not to fall really ill or even need to test). 2nd shot follow up rates are at 92%.
The vaccine puts a “limit” of sorts on how many hospitalizations are reasonably possible. There may be a another “wave” but relative to the spikes we had back in Nov, it’ll look like a mere blip.
Ex: If you have 100 people and Covid has a 20% hospitalization rate, if those 100 people get infected, you can expect 20 to go to the hospital. Now in that same scenario, if 50 of those 100 people have been vaccinated and those same 100 people get infected, we already know the vaccinated won’t get hospitalized. So 20% of 50 is 10. Barring a viral breakthrough, 10 is the “ceiling” on how many people can reasonably get hospitalized. As more and more people get vaccinated, that number will decline. This is essentially where we are now.
This anti-vaxx thing out of proportion. Vaccination rates are showing this to be the case.
Also, once you get general herd immunity, the need for a domestic vaccine passport becomes a moot point as the virus would get choked out because enough of the population is immune. For travel, yeah. Anything else, not really needed.
It’s over.
@ the swipe against CAC Mamba