ChatGPT-5 dropping this summer.

IIVI

Superstar
Joined
Mar 11, 2022
Messages
14,260
Reputation
3,707
Daps
50,955
Reppin
Los Angeles

Chrishaune

Veteran
Joined
Jun 28, 2012
Messages
37,685
Reputation
2,696
Daps
92,134
Reppin
Huntsville
4 is crazy, I don’t know what 5 does but it better be notably better than Deepseek. If the Chinese make another near copy for a fraction of the cost the whole AI bubble might collapse.

They have more people working, so of course they can develop faster. But the West is trying to keep the more cutting edge chips away from them. So they will still have a hurdle. This is going to end up in war.
 

Wargames

One Of The Last Real Ones To Do It
Joined
Apr 1, 2013
Messages
28,202
Reputation
5,598
Daps
106,709
Reppin
New York City
They have more people working, so of course they can develop faster. But the West is trying to keep the more cutting edge chips away from them. So they will still have a hurdle. This is going to end up in war.
It doesn’t need to be and honestly the fact that China is keeping up for cheap means they are more likely to win long term. 5.0 needs to set a bench mark that China won’t be able to reach for a while.
 

IIVI

Superstar
Joined
Mar 11, 2022
Messages
14,260
Reputation
3,707
Daps
50,955
Reppin
Los Angeles
They have more people working, so of course they can develop faster. But the West is trying to keep the more cutting edge chips away from them. So they will still have a hurdle. This is going to end up in war.
Yeah, NVIDIA is still the industry leader.

TSM however is the real supplier and why the ownership of Taiwan is such a big deal. TSM keeps everybody one generation behind what they’re currently working on. They have the true moat down to the metal.
 

IIVI

Superstar
Joined
Mar 11, 2022
Messages
14,260
Reputation
3,707
Daps
50,955
Reppin
Los Angeles
It doesn’t need to be and honestly the fact that China is keeping up for cheap means they are more likely to win long term. 5.0 needs to set a bench mark that China won’t be able to reach for a while.
Yeah, not trying to be a “Chinese Warhawk” here but there’s honestly nothing stopping them from focusing on Chips like they did batteries, which I think their next move is. Once they commit it’s basically a guarantee they figure it out at this point.

Supplying them chips this whole time honestly meant they wouldn’t have to build their own, which I think was a great way to keep them in check. You can thank Donald Trump and Biden (being honest) because those tariffs and restrictions pushed them to open up their Chipmaking and Semiconductor industry now.

I say this purely as an investor. I’m very interested to see which company sets it off for them.

Good discussion here:


 
Last edited:

bnew

Veteran
Joined
Nov 1, 2015
Messages
64,831
Reputation
9,895
Daps
175,795
Yeah, NVIDIA is still the industry leader.

TSM however is the real supplier and why the ownership of Taiwan is such a big deal. TSM keeps everybody one generation behind what they’re currently working on. They have the true moat down to the metal.

i think nvidia is the industry leader until some other party develops AI that can have novel insights and that will be applied to chip design and other domains to accelerate innovation and competition. after that all presuppositions are irrelevant.
 

IIVI

Superstar
Joined
Mar 11, 2022
Messages
14,260
Reputation
3,707
Daps
50,955
Reppin
Los Angeles
i think nvidia is the industry leader until some other party develops AI that can have novel insights and that will be applied to chip design and other domains to accelerate innovation and competition. after that all presuppositions are irrelevant.
The thing is NVIDIA designs the chips, but TSM is the one who actually builds them as they do for everyone. The fabrication of their designs are what TSM and their facilities do. Their tech to do so is actually what’s really cutting edge from what I understand.

Samsung and Intel are the closest to what TSM does. The question is if NVIDIA ever enters that space, then it’ll be about how long it’ll take.

However, the main question mark for all these companies is if China will BYD them now that they’ve recently started getting into the Semiconductor field.
 
Last edited:

Jimmy from Linkedin

All Star
Supporter
Joined
Oct 10, 2017
Messages
2,410
Reputation
1,666
Daps
7,214
Reppin
Managing Director at Breh & Breh, Inc
The thing is NVIDIA designs the chips, but TSM is the one who actually builds them as they do for everyone. The fabrication of their designs are what TSM and their facilities do. Their tech to do so is actually what’s really cutting edge from what I understand.

Samsung and Intel are the closest to what TSM does. The question is if NVIDIA ever enters that space, then it’ll be about how long it’ll take.

However, the main question mark for all these companies is if China will BYD them now that they’ve recently started getting into the Semiconductor field.
what do you gauge for the possibility-timeline on them BYD-ing ASML?
 

IIVI

Superstar
Joined
Mar 11, 2022
Messages
14,260
Reputation
3,707
Daps
50,955
Reppin
Los Angeles
what do you gauge for the possibility-timeline on them BYD-ing ASML?
I don’t think anytime this decade (meaning 2020’s). However who knows given their manpower, A.I, innovation scale, etc. The way they ganked Tesla is crazy.

I think Trump asking them to put companies like NVIDIA, Google, etc. in China may be a way to slow them down from them having a BYD-type of growth. That way you can leverage the Chinese brainpower that decided to stay in China and still work on those companies’ projects. It just creates a lane for them to go to rather than go full-throttle into a BYD-type of company.

ChatGPT says they’ll most likely have complex tech breakthroughs by 2030. By 2035 they’ll be kicking.
 
Last edited:

bnew

Veteran
Joined
Nov 1, 2015
Messages
64,831
Reputation
9,895
Daps
175,795
I don’t think anytime this decade (meaning 2020’s). However who knows given their manpower, A.I, innovation scale, etc. The way they ganked Tesla is crazy.

I think Trump asking them to put companies like NVIDIA, Google, etc. in China may be a way to slow them down from them having a BYD-type of growth. That way you can leverage the Chinese brainpower that decided to stay in China and still work on those companies’ projects. It just creates a lane for them to go to rather than go full-throttle into a BYD-type of company.

ChatGPT says they’ll most likely have complex tech breakthroughs by 2030. By 2035 they’ll be kicking.

yeah i think they do it within 5 ten years too.
 

Wig Twistin Season

Superstar
Supporter
Joined
May 24, 2022
Messages
7,911
Reputation
5,579
Daps
43,642
Reppin
San Diego
IMG-3269.jpg
 
Top