DrBanneker
Space is the Place
You will soon see huge jumps in the price of pork at the market given African swine flu has jumped to China (via Europe and Central Asia) and is expected to kill 1/3 of all their pigs -- 130 million in total. This is not just a supply issue but also a huge medical risk if it jumps to humans through those individuals contacting the pigs.
Financial Times
Gregory Meyer in New York, Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and Andres Schipani in São Paulo
April 22, 2019
As millions of pigs disappear in China, the rest of the world is beginning to notice. The country’s pig population, the largest in the world, is likely to shrink by almost a third, losing 130m animals as African swine fever ravages the country’s farms. The outbreak will reshape protein markets across the globe, driving up meat prices as China, the leading consumer and producer of pork, braces for years of shortages and disruptions to its food supply.
“This has been a game-changer,” says Jais Valeur, group chief executive at Danish Crown, Europe’s leading pork processor. “We’re only starting to see the real impact of African swine fever.” The ASF virus, endemic to Africa, is fatal to pigs and has no cure. The current wave of cases began in Georgia in 2007 and spread to parts of eastern Europe and Russia before reaching China in August. After eight months of Beijing claiming the situation was under control, the crisis has now become undeniable. The Ministry of Agriculture said last week that a preliminary estimate forecasts pork prices to rise more than 70 per cent year on year in the second half of 2019. It’s a big deal. They have half the world’s pigs and they’ve lost 30 per cent of that production Christine McCracken, Rabobank
The sharp drop in China’s pig population has sent shockwaves through the world food industry. Hog futures have leapt in Chicago. Shares of meat companies have soared in São Paulo and New York. US pork sales to China recently hit a record high despite a 62 per cent tariff imposed during the course of the trade war between the countries. China’s 1.4bn people consume 55m tonnes of pork products a year, by far the most of any country. Household meat consumption has steadily risen alongside incomes, with the bulk of demand met by a domestic pig population more than 430m-strong before the outbreak. But deaths from the disease and culling are expected to leave 130m fewer pigs in China by year-end, estimates Christine McCracken, a New York-based analyst at Rabobank.
Financial Times
Gregory Meyer in New York, Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and Andres Schipani in São Paulo
April 22, 2019
As millions of pigs disappear in China, the rest of the world is beginning to notice. The country’s pig population, the largest in the world, is likely to shrink by almost a third, losing 130m animals as African swine fever ravages the country’s farms. The outbreak will reshape protein markets across the globe, driving up meat prices as China, the leading consumer and producer of pork, braces for years of shortages and disruptions to its food supply.
“This has been a game-changer,” says Jais Valeur, group chief executive at Danish Crown, Europe’s leading pork processor. “We’re only starting to see the real impact of African swine fever.” The ASF virus, endemic to Africa, is fatal to pigs and has no cure. The current wave of cases began in Georgia in 2007 and spread to parts of eastern Europe and Russia before reaching China in August. After eight months of Beijing claiming the situation was under control, the crisis has now become undeniable. The Ministry of Agriculture said last week that a preliminary estimate forecasts pork prices to rise more than 70 per cent year on year in the second half of 2019. It’s a big deal. They have half the world’s pigs and they’ve lost 30 per cent of that production Christine McCracken, Rabobank
The sharp drop in China’s pig population has sent shockwaves through the world food industry. Hog futures have leapt in Chicago. Shares of meat companies have soared in São Paulo and New York. US pork sales to China recently hit a record high despite a 62 per cent tariff imposed during the course of the trade war between the countries. China’s 1.4bn people consume 55m tonnes of pork products a year, by far the most of any country. Household meat consumption has steadily risen alongside incomes, with the bulk of demand met by a domestic pig population more than 430m-strong before the outbreak. But deaths from the disease and culling are expected to leave 130m fewer pigs in China by year-end, estimates Christine McCracken, a New York-based analyst at Rabobank.
Last edited:
