Coronavirus Thread: Worldwide Pandemic
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New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.
May 6, 2021 12:58 PM ET
BECKY SULLIVAN
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Medical workers wait to vaccinate people at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination clinic last month in Hollandale, Miss.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.
Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.
The analysis comes from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who looked at excess mortality from March 2020 through May 3, 2021, compared it with what would be expected in a typical nonpandemic year, then adjusted those figures to account for a handful of other pandemic-related factors.
The final count only estimates deaths "caused directly by the SARS-CoV-2 virus," according to the study's authors. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.
Researchers estimated dramatic undercounts in countries such as India, Mexico and Russia, where they said the official death counts are some 400,000 too low in each country. In some countries — including Japan, Egypt and several Central Asian nations — the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's death toll estimate is more than 10 times higher than reported totals.
medical journal JAMA that examined excess mortality rates in the U.S. through December.
While that team similarly found the number of excess deaths far exceeded the official COVID-19 death toll, it disagreed that the gap could be blamed entirely on COVID-19 and not other causes.
"Their estimate of excess deaths is enormous and inconsistent with our research and others," said Dr. Steven Woolf, who led the Virginia Commonwealth team. "There are a lot of assumptions and educated guesses built into their model."
Other researchers applauded the UW study, calling the researchers' effort to produce a global model important, especially in identifying countries with small reported outbreaks but larger estimates of a true death toll, which could indicate the virus is spreading more widely than previously thought.
"We need to better understand the impact of COVID across the globe so that countries can understand the trajectory of the pandemic and figure out where to deploy additional resources, like testing supplies and vaccines to stop the spread," said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins.
Researchers at UW also released an updated forecast for the COVID-19 death count worldwide, estimating that roughly 2.5 million more people will die of COVID-19 between now and Sept. 1, driven in part by the dramatic surge of cases in India.
In the United States, researchers estimated roughly 44,000 more people will die of COVID-19 by September.
NPR science correspondent Rob Stein contributed to this report.
New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.
May 6, 2021 12:58 PM ET
BECKY SULLIVAN
TwitterInstagram
Medical workers wait to vaccinate people at a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination clinic last month in Hollandale, Miss.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
A new study estimates that the number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. is more than 900,000, a number 57% higher than official figures.
Worldwide, the study's authors say, the COVID-19 death count is nearing 7 million, more than double the reported number of 3.24 million.
The analysis comes from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who looked at excess mortality from March 2020 through May 3, 2021, compared it with what would be expected in a typical nonpandemic year, then adjusted those figures to account for a handful of other pandemic-related factors.
The final count only estimates deaths "caused directly by the SARS-CoV-2 virus," according to the study's authors. SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes COVID-19.
Researchers estimated dramatic undercounts in countries such as India, Mexico and Russia, where they said the official death counts are some 400,000 too low in each country. In some countries — including Japan, Egypt and several Central Asian nations — the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's death toll estimate is more than 10 times higher than reported totals.
medical journal JAMA that examined excess mortality rates in the U.S. through December.
While that team similarly found the number of excess deaths far exceeded the official COVID-19 death toll, it disagreed that the gap could be blamed entirely on COVID-19 and not other causes.
"Their estimate of excess deaths is enormous and inconsistent with our research and others," said Dr. Steven Woolf, who led the Virginia Commonwealth team. "There are a lot of assumptions and educated guesses built into their model."
Other researchers applauded the UW study, calling the researchers' effort to produce a global model important, especially in identifying countries with small reported outbreaks but larger estimates of a true death toll, which could indicate the virus is spreading more widely than previously thought.
"We need to better understand the impact of COVID across the globe so that countries can understand the trajectory of the pandemic and figure out where to deploy additional resources, like testing supplies and vaccines to stop the spread," said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins.
Researchers at UW also released an updated forecast for the COVID-19 death count worldwide, estimating that roughly 2.5 million more people will die of COVID-19 between now and Sept. 1, driven in part by the dramatic surge of cases in India.
In the United States, researchers estimated roughly 44,000 more people will die of COVID-19 by September.
NPR science correspondent Rob Stein contributed to this report.
I don’t know if full herd immunity will be needed to get back to some semblance of normal (nor should it be). I think we might get to a level where COVID lives with us but we have the tools to manage it. The current vaccines offer protection against the variants so thus far, they shouldn’t be of much of a concern.
Early in the pandemic the goal was to slow the spread and not overwhelm the health care system. I think we’re getting there as the most vulnerable are getting vaccinated. IIRC 2.2 Million vaccines were administered yesterday. Still a good rate so far. Even one dose offers very protection.
Barely 3 weeks since vaccine eligibility was opened to everyone. Let’s allow the public vaccination campaign to keep going and not jump to conclusions.
My question to the public health experts is this: If everyone got vaccinated tomorrow and we got to full herd immunity (whatever that level may be) could the general public drop the masks and get back to pre-pandemic living?
What are the targets that as a public we can say once we get past this stage the worst of the pandemic is behind us?
Is it deaths? Hospitalization rates, cases, positivity rates? Etc
did you listen to the podcase episode? they said it'll be with us for years and there will be outbreaks here and there like the measles outbreak in the orthodox jewish community in NY and the measles outbreak in a California community. The focus is on vaccinating as much people as possible.
Why Herd Immunity Is Slipping Away
took me a minute
I misread. NYTimes ran a similar article a few days earlier about not getting to herd immunity and their analysis was very speculative. Regardless, I think we need to let the vaccination drive keep pushing instead of preemptively throwing up our hands in defeat.
they're not giving up on vaccinations, they just made the determination that herd immunity needed much more of the population to be vaccinated and immune to the virus which under the current climate seems unlikely.
I don't think they should give up either. It seems incentives for taking the vaccine for stadium tickets are working.
second shot of moderna kickin my ass brehs, ain't been able to sleep, can't feel arm, fever, chills
Poetical Poltergeist
Precise and cold hearted
Your shedding your proteins. Your becoming one with the Deep State. You'll conform to the identity we give you, eat where we tell you, live where we tell you. From now on you'll have no identifying marks of any kind. You'll not stand out in any way. Your entire image is crafted to leave no lasting memory with anyone you encounter. You're a rumor, recognizable only as deja vu and dismissed just as quickly. You don't exist; you were never even born. Anonymity is your name. Silence your native tongue. You're no longer part of the System. You're above the System. Over it. Beyond it. We're "them." We're "they."