COVID-19 Pandemic (Coronavirus)

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someone pointed out in Dec what an easing would mean for the 5-10% where the vaccines don't work and the unvaccinated.

I suppose what was implied but not made clear by me was the time factor. We might go back to normal at some point in the future (but as I said I believe better treatments will play a role here). The narrative has been that we have turned the corner and we are on a straight-ish-line path to normalcy. Pushing back against that narrative is not just about "endemicity" but that is part of it. I made a post the other day about the time for honest disclosure from our leaders and in my mind that includes the fact that the effect of the vaccine is a great unknown, that if we get transmission rates cut by 50% (as suggested by BioNTech) and then go back to "normal" in the near-term the net effect will most likely be a higher level of live cases circulating in the population than we have now. That means that those who do not take the vaccine or the ~5% where it does not work will be much more likely to catch it than today.

Flu is different because we have effective treatments and vaccines and covid is more than a respiratory disease. Death is not the only marker of significant damage. You have seen the reports of amputees, heart and lung scarring, etc which are normal for a proportion of the infected whether they live or not. Remember too that under 16's will not be vaccinated so in a "back to normal" world covid will spread like widlfire in that group. And if T-cell/Abody-immunity is not long term those numbers will remain high. Consider how much we have distorted our lives and how cases would rise it we went back to "normal" now.

Covid attacks major organs and the immune system itself, the consequences of which are yet to be understood. The "still at risk" group will for their own safety have to avoid millions of walking infected but not showing it timebombs who might put them in hospital at any point..

this also raises the question of vaccines and herd immunity.

"
Two new studies look at the Delta variant (B1617) behind the UK COVID-19 surge, with the first noting that young people are helping drive the exponential growth of COVID-19 cases in England. The second study describes reduced COVID-19 vaccine and antibody efficacy against the more transmissible variant.

Youth test positivity rate five times higher than seniors'
The first study, published today on the Imperial College London preprint server, involved testing a random sample of people from across England for COVID-19 as part of the ongoing Real-Time Assessment of Community Transmission (React 1) study.
"

"
Young people are behind the surge, with a 5-fold higher rate of COVID-19 test positivity among children 5 to 12 years (0.35% prevalence) and adults 18 to 24 (0.36% prevalence) than in those 65 or older.
"

Youth, Delta variant behind UK COVID surge

@Rhakim
 
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Jim Cornette

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