Playoffs: Scouting Cavs-Celtics
This should be cathartic for
LeBron James. In what will assuredly be mentioned many, many times over the next two weeks, the last time James toiled in a playoff series for Cleveland was in 2010. The opponent? The Boston Celtics, who knocked off the 66-win Cavaliers in six games. James was widely accused of quitting in that series, though there might be something to be said for quitters if they can average 27 points, nine rebounds and seven assists as the King did in that matchup. But that was then, and these are very different teams than they were five years ago. For one thing, James never had a power duo of teammates in Cleveland like he does in this stint with
Kyrie Irving and
Kevin Love. After a slow start, the Cavaliers were the league's best team over the second half of the season.
The Celtics enter this series as huge underdogs, but they've played increasingly well over the course of the season under breakout coach Brad Stevens. Boston has been a top-10 defense since the All-Star break and top five in eight games during April, of which the Celtics have won seven. Boston has been doing it will depth, balance, defense and the scoring punch of
Isaiah Thomas off the bench. The rise of the new Celtics might not yet be enough to topple James and the Cavs as they did five years ago, but this could be a surprisingly entertaining series. If so, that might be a blessing in disguise for a Cleveland squad that as a group has not been through the playoff wars before.
QUESTION 1: The Cavs have been the league's best team since January, so what hope does Boston have to stave off the inevitable?
Elhassan: The Celtics can hang their hats on the steady improvement their team made during the season and the development of their young players. With players such as
Avery Bradley,
Marcus Smart and
Jae Crowder, they have the makings of a tough defensive unit, and Thomas gave them a spark offensively during the post-trade deadline stretch. It's a bright future for the Boston Celtics, especially when considering the cap space and draft pick cache they sit on, but no, there's no staving off the inevitable four-game dispatch that awaits them.
Doolittle: No real hope to win the series, but they could steal a game and make a couple of others interesting. Boston did win a couple of games against Cleveland late in the season, but the Cavs were fully in cruise control mode by then and Dave Blatt was resting his stars liberally. While the Celtics defense improved by leaps and bounds over the course of the season, the Cleveland offense was pretty much off the charts after the in-season acquisitions of
Timofey Mozgov,
J.R. Smith and
Iman Shumpert. The Cavs had the league's second-best 2-point percentage during the second half, while the Boston defense was 23rd in defending those shots and dead last in shot-blocking. Cleveland can get a little loose with the ball, but Boston doesn't force a ton of miscues. There are some individual matchups that could be interesting -- Bradley and/or Smart on Irving; Crowder on James, for example -- but that's hoops head stuff.
QUESTION 2: How does Boston best deploy its key defenders against the Cleveland big three?
Elhassan: Bradley's reputation as one of the best on-ball defenders in the league is well-earned, but he'll have his hands full with Irving. Luckily, the availability of backcourt mate Smart and even backup point guard
Phil Pressey allow the C's to throw different types of intense ball pressure at Irving in an effort to slow him down. Up front,
Jared Sullinger and
Brandon Bass both bring the body types that can bang around with Love, but as most of his time will be spent spacing the floor, they'll likely spend more time 24 feet away from the basket than right under it. The big issue, of course, is how to defend James, and the committee of
Evan Turner, Crowder and
Jonas Jerebko all bring decent size and quickness for mere mortals, but expect the Boston defense to collapse frequently, allowing Cleveland to light it up from the perimeter.
Doolittle: One quandary for the Celtics is that they are going to need Thomas on the floor, but he's not a good candidate to defend Irving, much less the bigger Smith or Shumpert. It might help to keep Crowder on Love for stretches, especially if Love ends up spending most of his time spotting up. That leaves Turner on James and Smart can help with Irving. Smith can shoot over Thomas, but if he's going to stay behind the arc -- and this is a guy who recently took all 17 of his shots in a game from 3-point land -- then Thomas can stick up his left hand and hope for the best. The real trouble could come in the paint, where Cleveland's bigs might be able to exploit Boston's lack of a rim protector.
QUESTION 3: Is there any hope the Celtics can close some of the gap between starting units with their Isaiah Thomas-led bench?
Elhassan: The big question is whether Thomas can score more than he gives up in his time on the floor. So far in Boston, he's been able to keep his head above sea level, and much of that credit goes to the other four Celtics on the floor with him, but that will be tested during this series. Blatt has spent all season playing his main guys heavy minutes, so expect that trend to continue in the postseason. In that sense, maybe the Celtics bench is markedly better than the Cavs', but will it matter if they don't play that many minutes against the Cavs bench?
Doolittle: By my bench WARP metric, the Celtics got more from their bench than any team in the league, while Cleveland was 27th. In the postseason, that and $1.50 might get you a candy bar, but bench play can turn games at playoff time. Thomas is a true weapon, and the Cleveland doesn't have an obvious candidate to chase him around. While Thomas ranked third in the league by individual bench WARP,
Kelly Olynyk, Jerebko and Crowder also ranked in the top 25.
Tristan Thompson was the top-ranked Cavalier at No. 28. This is a real edge for Boston, and it could even win the Celtics a game. But Blatt showed a willingness to ride his primary players heavily earlier in the season, and that side of his coaching arsenal might well present itself now that we're in the playoffs. And, not for nothing, it doesn't hurt that Blatt can stagger James, Love and Irving so that he always has a star or two on the floor.
Predictions
Elhassan: Cavs in four. The late-season drubbing of Cleveland's third-string lineup will be fresh in the minds of the Cavs, as many in attendance felt that Boston kept their foot on the accelerator long after the outcome was decided, pressing and trapping with a 20-plus point lead in the late fourth quarter. It's been a great season for Boston, but the offseason beckons.
Doolittle: Cavaliers in five. I see one game at the Garden going Boston's way on the strengths of defense and the scoring of Thomas. However, overall Cleveland is simply a team way ahead of Boston on the success cycle.
Don't be surprised if ...
Elhassan: I mentioned it earlier, but expect some stints for the lightly-used Pressey when the C's are looking for an energy boost. He's tiny, but he can be a nuisance on the defensive end for ball handlers, and offensively, his penetrate-and-kick abilities can create some opportunities.
Doolittle: There could be some real David versus Goliath configurations on the floor. Boston was the third-smallest team this season in terms of average height weighted for minutes, while Cleveland was the fifth biggest. And here's an eclectic observation: In clutch time, Cleveland was still the fifth-biggest team, but Boston was the smallest. Break that little nugget out at your next cocktail party.
BPI projection
89 percent chance Cavaliers win series. Most likely series outcome is Cavaliers in five.
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