DC is closer to becoming a state now than it has ever been

Afro

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DC is closer to becoming a state now than it has ever been

In the current Senate, Democrats actually control a majority (26-24) of seats from the most populous half of the states. Republicans owe their Senate majority to their crushing 29-21 lead in the least populous half of the states.

The GOP’s advantage, moreover, is only likely to grow with time. Right now, more than half the country lives in the nine most populous states. By 2040, according to a University of Virginia analysis, half the country is expected to live in just eight states. About 70 percent of the country will live in 16 states — meaning that 30 percent of the population will control 68 percent of the Senate.

Meanwhile, one of the best predictors of partisan voting patterns is population density. Dense regions tend to prefer Democrats, while sparsely populated regions prefer Republicans. As Stanford political scientist Jonathan Rodden describes this phenomenon, “as you go from the center of cities out through the suburbs and into rural areas, you traverse in a linear fashion from Democratic to Republican places.”

Barring a political realignment, in other words, the United States may be barreling toward a future where Republicans enjoy a permanent majority in the Senate — regardless of who a majority of the country wishes to lead them. Admitting a single urban state probably won’t be enough to level the playing field between Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, but it will mitigate the problem.


Nor is it especially unusual for the party that controls Congress to admit states for political reasons. In 1864, Republican President Abraham Lincoln signed legislation admitting Nevada, then a barely-populated desert with a few thousand residents, into the union as a state. Nevada didn’t have many people, but the few people who did live there were overwhelmingly Republican.

A dozen years later, President Ulysses Grant, also a Republican, signed legislation admitting the state of Colorado. According to the most recent census, Colorado had fewer than 40,00 residents when it became a state. Colorado was also dominated by Republicans at the time.

After Republicans defeated Democratic President Grover Cleveland in the 1888 election, they celebrated by splitting the GOP-dominated Dakota into two territories and admitting both of them as states. Today, there are still two Dakotas because Gilded Age Republicans wanted four senators instead of just two.

Meanwhile, Republicans successfully blocked New Mexico from becoming a state until 1912. Cleveland’s Democrats had hoped to admit New Mexico, which favored Cleveland’s party.

These sorts of tactics are the kind of constitutional hardball that political parties have freely embraced in a nation that, nonsensically, gives two senators to every state regardless of population. It would be best if the Senate were abolished, or at least apportioned by population.

But, until that day comes, admitting DC as a state would make the United States more small-d democratic. It would mean that over 700,000 DC residents were no longer disenfranchised. And it would provide a counterbalance to the arbitrary and anti-democratic advantage that Senate Republicans currently enjoy.

Folks out here playing games with numbers :wow:
 
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