Djibouti seizes control of Dubai-run Doraleh port; Somalia rejects Dubai Port World

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Read my first post in the thread for the Djibouti case http://www.thecoli.com/posts/28518746/

This is my take on the current crisis, although Im sure others will have different views:

As far as Somalia goes, the Gulf Crisis has heated up relations between Somalia and UAE. The UAE wanted Somalia to explicitly side with them, and Somalia refused and publicly said they are neutral on the situation. The Presidents chief of staff is a former AlJazeera Arabic reporter and has links with Qatar.

DPWorld has been expanding its presence throughout Somalia, in response to their dispute with Djibouti. The deal to develop the Berbera port in Somaliland was in fact first signed in 2016, too much less fanfare and criticism because it wasnt against the backdrop of the Gulf Crisis. They also signed a deal to develop Bossaso port in 2017, and its subsidiary signed a deal to develop a port in Southern Somalia (Barawe). A further agreement was signed to give Ethiopia a stake in the port the other week, alongside DPWorld and the UAE. The latter deal, set against the backdrop of GCC Crisis hysteria in Somali media and claims that the UAE is remote controlling the opposition to the President, lead to uproar in the Somali social media sphere. A further interview from a DPWorld chairman and other UAE figures saying Somalia is powerless to stop the deal and Somaliland is an independent state, added to the uproar. The parliamentary motion to ban DPWorld from operating in Somalia and declare the Berbera deal null and void followed.

I think generally this is a silly move, from a Government that appears to be focused on optics and narrative directed to the diaspora. Somalia has little to no leverage against the UAE, and is powerless to enforce any ruling on Berbera. As I said earlier, the more likely outcome would be for Somaliland to dig in and proceed with the deal and that appears to be happening. The SL Parliament passed a motion supporting the deal and their President was in Abu Dhabi the other day. Construction on the port has already started in Berbera. What did the Somali Government get out of this move? Im not quite sure. Qatar appears to be offering various military and port deals, to replace the role DPWorld is playing but I dont see the net benefit. While Somalia did not choose to be implicated in the Gulf dispute, it does not seem smart for the Government to take a boisterous stance it can do little to enforce. I also would not be surprised if Puntland later rejects the ruling as well.

I agree. This situation seems silly. Now, UAE and Saudi will work to undermine the Somali government

 

[thatrapsfan]

I do have to add, I dont think the UAE is going to recognize SL @FAH1223 DPWorld sabre-rattling aside, the actual leadership has not commented publicly on the case or on Somali politics. The SL President was not welcomed in Abu Dhabi, as I thought and is the norm for official visits, but in Dubai and by periphery figures from the Dubai royal family ( who dont control UAE FP).

 

[Max B]

I agree. This situation seems silly. Now, UAE and Saudi will work to undermine the Somali government

I hope they do. There's a motion to kick out the current prime minister soon

 

[Anhur]

I agree. This situation seems silly. Now, UAE and Saudi will work to undermine the Somali government

The main aspect of the Port deal that angered the Somali government was the construction of a UAE military base in Berbera which will be used against the Houtis in Yemen.
The Somali government doesn't want to be involved in another war and doesn't want an Emirati military base being constructed within its borders without their consent.
The Houtis already declared that if the base is complete, they will rain the capital of Somaliland with their missiles. If you didn't already know, their missiles have hit the capital of Saudi Arabia which has the state of the art defence systems.
How would Somaliland fare against it if they can reach Saudi Arabia?

The second aspect of the port deal that angers the Somali government is that Ethiopia has stakes in a Somali asset.
Farmajo, the president, sees Ethiopia as an enemy although he does not openly declare that due to diplomacy and the weak state that the Federal government is currently in.

 

[Max B]

The main aspect of the Port deal that angered the Somali government was the construction of a UAE military base in Berbera which will be used against the Houtis in Yemen.
The Somali government doesn't want to be involved in another war and doesn't want an Emirati military base being constructed within its borders without their consent.
The Houtis already declared that if the base is complete, they will rain the capital of Somaliland with their missiles. If you didn't already know, their missiles have hit the capital of Saudi Arabia which has the state of the art defence systems.
How would Somaliland fare against it if they can reach Saudi Arabia?

The second aspect of the port deal that angers the Somali government is that Ethiopia has stakes in a Somali asset.
Farmajo, the president, sees Ethiopia as an enemy although he does not openly declare that due to diplomacy and the weak state that the Federal government is currently in.

Yeah the man who sent 77 ogaden war veteran to ethiopia see's them as a enemy LMAO




He calls them his brother in this video

Not openly declare kulaha foh with that excuse. If cheeseman was a real nationalist he wouldn't give up that war veteran whos a somali citizen to ethiopia or call them his brothers

 

[Max B]

"Buh buh buh farmaajo hates ethiopia but not openly!"

Why ban only uae why not ethiopia also? fukking hypocrites

 

[Max B]

I do have to add, I dont think the UAE is going to recognize SL @FAH1223 DPWorld sabre-rattling aside, the actual leadership has not commented publicly on the case or on Somali politics. The SL President was not welcomed in Abu Dhabi, as I thought and is the norm for official visits, but in Dubai and by periphery figures from the Dubai royal family ( who dont control UAE FP).

You are wrong musa bixi met with the deputy PM of UAE not the Dubai family.

Mansour bin Zayed receives President of Somaliland

Thats the emirate state news btw.
“H.H. Sheikh Mansour and the President Abdi discussed ways of enhancing bilateral relations to serve mutual interests of the two countries and their peoples."

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Incoming Somaliland recognition

 

[thatrapsfan]

You are wrong musa bixi met with the deputy PM of UAE not the Dubai family.

Mansour bin Zayed receives President of Somaliland

Thats the emirate state news btw.
“H.H. Sheikh Mansour and the President Abdi discussed ways of enhancing bilateral relations to serve mutual interests of the two countries and their peoples."

Yeah that was yesterday, the first day he arrived in Dubai and met with Dubai royals:




Mansour isnt a top royal btw, hes best known for owning Man City

Heads of state meet with Abdullah bin Zayed ( foreign minister) or Mohamed bin Zayed (Crown Prince). Here is Mohamed Bin Zayed with the Turkmenistan President today for example:





They didnt even post about the visit on their foreign affairs account, which publicizes all their diplomatic dealings:

وزارة الخارجية (@MOFAUAE) on Twitter

If they were planning to recognize SL, they would have given the visit higher priority.

 

[thatrapsfan]

The main aspect of the Port deal that angered the Somali government was the construction of a UAE military base in Berbera which will be used against the Houtis in Yemen.
The Somali government doesn't want to be involved in another war and doesn't want an Emirati military base being constructed within its borders without their consent.
The Houtis already declared that if the base is complete, they will rain the capital of Somaliland with their missiles. If you didn't already know, their missiles have hit the capital of Saudi Arabia which has the state of the art defence systems.
How would Somaliland fare against it if they can reach Saudi Arabia?

The second aspect of the port deal that angers the Somali government is that Ethiopia has stakes in a Somali asset.
Farmajo, the president, sees Ethiopia as an enemy although he does not openly declare that due to diplomacy and the weak state that the Federal government is currently in.

Ethiopian troops are in Somalia as we speak breh. The Government rendered a citizen to Ethiopia and has visited often. Farmaajo's Ethiopian rants are pure populism, not serious policy, and not one they are seriously interested in pursuing. Farmaajo is governing for social media props, this move is just pandering to popular sentiment.


The Houthis will not attack Somaliland, that video was fake. If they were really interested in expanding the war, they wouldve attacked Eritrea, whose base UAE and Saudi already using this is just scaremongering.

Even if you accept the premise, there is literally no way the Government can impose this law so what is the point? The downsides are obvious. Greater antagonism towards SL that they wont be able to follow through, and looking even weaker when the port gets built despite their sabre-rattling.

 

[Anhur]

Ethiopian troops are in Somalia as we speak breh. The Government rendered a citizen to Ethiopia and has visited often. Farmaajo's Ethiopian rants are pure populism, not serious policy, and not one they are seriously interested in pursuing. Farmaajo is governing for social media props, this move is just pandering to popular sentiment.

Great point, but I really hope your sentiment isn't the case. I don't even have any evidence to rebuke your claims. I'm just hoping he really means what he used to say.
The way Saudis and Emiratis hate him, he must be doing something right.

The Houthis will not attack Somaliland, that video was fake. If they were really interested in expanding the war, they wouldve attacked Eritrea, whose base UAE and Saudi already using this is just scaremongering.

Even if you accept the premise, there is literally no way the Government can impose this law so what is the point? The downsides are obvious. Greater antagonism towards SL that they wont be able to follow through, and looking even weaker when the port gets built despite their sabre-rattling.

The point still stands that the Somali government did not permit the Emirates to build a military base.
They aren't against development in Somaliland, what they're against is another country building a base in their internationally recognized territory without their permission.
The trash owner of DP world that racially insulted Djibouti has also insulted the government of Somalia by claiming that Somaliland is a separate nation.
Do you really expect the federal government to just be silent after such an attack on their sovereignty?

I don't know why the government is lashing out at like this and raising tensions towards Somaliland and UAE.
I can't see how this is going to help them especially against the formidable UAE who have the ability influence the White House.
Maybe he was forced to speak about this because the citizens would see his silence as a sign of weakness and try to oust him?
Some people in the comment sections of youtube are claiming that the Gulf wants to start another proxy war, but I can't see that happening because Somalia is already stretched thin due to the radicals and another famine.
If I'm being honest, this is a clear victory for Somaliland and the UAE. We'll just have to watch and see how things play out.

 

[FAH1223]

Ethiopian troops are in Somalia as we speak breh. The Government rendered a citizen to Ethiopia and has visited often. Farmaajo's Ethiopian rants are pure populism, not serious policy, and not one they are seriously interested in pursuing. Farmaajo is governing for social media props, this move is just pandering to popular sentiment.


The Houthis will not attack Somaliland, that video was fake. If they were really interested in expanding the war, they wouldve attacked Eritrea, whose base UAE and Saudi already using this is just scaremongering.

Even if you accept the premise, there is literally no way the Government can impose this law so what is the point? The downsides are obvious. Greater antagonism towards SL that they wont be able to follow through, and looking even weaker when the port gets built despite their sabre-rattling.

Great point, but I really hope your sentiment isn't the case. I don't even have any evidence to rebuke your claims. I'm just hoping he really means what he used to say.
The way Saudis and Emiratis hate him, he must be doing something right.



The point still stands that the Somali government did not permit the Emirates to build a military base.
They aren't against development in Somaliland, what they're against is another country building a base in their internationally recognized territory without their permission.
The trash owner of DP world that racially insulted Djibouti has also insulted the government of Somalia by claiming that Somaliland is a separate nation.
Do you really expect the federal government to just be silent after such an attack on their sovereignty?

I don't know why the government is lashing out at like this and raising tensions towards Somaliland and UAE.
I can't see how this is going to help them especially against the formidable UAE who have the ability influence the White House.
Maybe he was forced to speak about this because the citizens would see his silence as a sign of weakness and try to oust him?
Some people in the comment sections of youtube are claiming that the Gulf wants to start another proxy war, but I can't see that happening because Somalia is already stretched thin due to the radicals and another famine.
If I'm being honest, this is a clear victory for Somaliland and the UAE. We'll just have to watch and see how things play out.

 

[Max B]

I wonder how much qatar paid them. Either way nothing is going to stop the deal its happening. Somalia should worry about kenya taking land and building that wall in beled hawo.

 

[FAH1223]

I wonder how much qatar paid them. Either way nothing is going to stop the deal its happening. Somalia should worry about kenya taking land and building that wall in beled hawo.