Djibouti seizes control of Dubai-run Doraleh port; Somalia rejects Dubai Port World

[RadaMillz]

@thatknickfan @RadaMillz @Grano-Grano @Broke Wave @Prynce @BocaRear

Things are heating up between everyone, usual exchange of words between Sland vs SFG, nothing new there but I am surprised UAE openly declared war with internationally backed federal government. This shows that the Turkish influence in Mugadisho is really bothering UAE/Saudi.

Things are definitely getting interesting!

 

[Broke Wave]

I don’t like these geopolitics games from a country trying to pick up the pieces from 20+ years of famine civil war and lawlessness. Just such a disconnect between leadership and he reality on the ground.

 

[RadaMillz]

How will this be enforced in SL? Seems like theatre. My bet is the Berbera port construction will go on unabated. Also interested to see how PL reacts. There was also a third deal with Sharif Sakiin in Barawe with the DP World subsidiary. Doesn't seem like it was mentioned.

At the moment, obviously nothing can be done through force but u are also underestimating SFG, the country is slowly getting back full control of its sovereignty. The recent handover of its air space (Somaliland included) and also with .SO domain this week etc.

Kenya tried to be slick and steal southern Maritime with bought signatures from corrupt politicians knowing they will lose in Court. In the long run, DP is setting themselves up for failure. I don’t think anyone is against the developement of Berbera Port but the deal is blatant robbery even with prominent individuals from Sland opposing it.

 

[thatrapsfan]

I don’t like these geopolitics games from a country trying to pick up the pieces from 20+ years of famine civil war and lawlessness. Just such a disconnect between leadership and he reality on the ground.

Agree.

 

[thatrapsfan]

At the moment, obviously nothing can be done through force but u are also underestimating SFG, the country is slowly getting back full control of its sovereignty. The recent handover of its air space (Somaliland included) and also with .SO domain this week etc.

Kenya tried to be slick and steal southern Maritime with bought signatures from corrupt politicians knowing they will lose in Court. In the long run, DP is setting themselves up for failure. I don’t think anyone is against the developement of Berbera Port but the deal is blatant robbery even with prominent individuals from Sland opposing it.

Re: Berbera, how exactly does this ruling change anything? Its one thing if the SL Government backs out on the deal, but how will a ruling of the Somali Parliament slow down the deal? If anything, I anticipate that they will dig in and accelerate the development.

Its also easy to forget the UAE has a lot of leverage over Somalia. A very large amount of imports into the country from food to construction material to vehicles come through Dubai. Tons of Somali import-export businesses are based there, not to mention the Somali businesses based in Dubai. How do they anticipate to replace this, if the UAE escalates in return? Qatar will not be able to fill in this role.


Things like the control of airspace are the bare minimum for any state. The FGS has been moving forward at a snail's pace but the challenges are still massive and should not be understated. I find the rhetoric of the current government tends to overstate and exaggerate its accomplishments. This is a Government that still doesn't provide any semblance of services, has no control or provision of education, no control or provision of healthcare, and a budget smaller than a rural Western municipality. The extension of its mandate in the regional states also has barely moved at any significant level. Same goes for security reform and the integration of armed forces in the regional states with the national army. None of this will move, because there is no real political reconciliation.

The security situation is also much worse than they are letting on. AlShabab was 30km out of Mogadisu in Balcad last week. People in Mogadishu itself are complying with their orders: al-Shabab - BBC News

I am not very optimistic about this Government or its trajectory. I think Mogadishu is developing despite it, because of business activity, but at the political level I dont see anything that tells me this admin is much different from the last one.

 

[Max B]

@thatknickfan @RadaMillz @Grano-Grano @Broke Wave @Prynce @BocaRear

This is the same government that hardly even controls its own country.

 

[Grano-Grano]

Jeeganland is crying


I'm in heaven

 

[Max B]

Jeeganland is crying


I'm in heaven

Nobody is crying cause this ban won't have any effect. The mayor farmaajo needs to get his priorities in order and worry about al shabaab and amisom never leaving. The port will continue to be developed cause UAE does not respect the SFG.

Only reason why SFG are so worked about this is cause they won't get a single dime from this deal.

 

[Grano-Grano]

Nobody is crying cause this ban won't have any effect. The mayor farmaajo needs to get his priorities in order and worry about al shabaab and amisom never leaving. The port will continue to be developed cause UAE does not respect the SFG like most nations.

Your treachery has united the southern clans. It's a matter of time until we force you back in line. I don't care. Thanks for uniting us, jeeganland

 

[Max B]

Your treachery has united the southern clans. It's a matter of time until we force you back in line. I don't care. Thanks for uniting us, jeeganland

Nothing has changed so i don't get what your celebrating about



Minority qabils who are getting harassed by bigger qabils are joining al shabaab in droves you guys should worry about that more instead of a port deal in a region you are not from. Get your priorities in check.

 

[Max B]

Also why does farmaajo sound like a retard whenever he does public speaking?




reminds me of this kid

 

[Grano-Grano]

The tears is real wallahi

You

 

[The Odum of Ala Igbo]

Can someone give me a short summary of this situation?

 

[Trajan]

Can someone give me a short summary of this situation?

Somali fukkery exacerbated by the gulf crisis between Qatar/Turkey v UAE/Saudi

I'll drop a summary tomorrow if no one has by then.

 

[thatrapsfan]

Can someone give me a short summary of this situation?

Read my first post in the thread for the Djibouti case http://www.thecoli.com/posts/28518746/

This is my take on the current crisis, although Im sure others will have different views:

As far as Somalia goes, the Gulf Crisis has heated up relations between Somalia and UAE. The UAE wanted Somalia to explicitly side with them, and Somalia refused and publicly said they are neutral on the situation. The Presidents chief of staff is a former AlJazeera Arabic reporter and has links with Qatar.

DPWorld has been expanding its presence throughout Somalia, in response to their dispute with Djibouti. The deal to develop the Berbera port in Somaliland was in fact first signed in 2016, too much less fanfare and criticism because it wasnt against the backdrop of the Gulf Crisis. They also signed a deal to develop Bossaso port in 2017, and its subsidiary signed a deal to develop a port in Southern Somalia (Barawe). A further agreement was signed to give Ethiopia a stake in the port the other week, alongside DPWorld and the UAE. The latter deal, set against the backdrop of GCC Crisis hysteria in Somali media and claims that the UAE is remote controlling the opposition to the President, lead to uproar in the Somali social media sphere. A further interview from a DPWorld chairman and other UAE figures saying Somalia is powerless to stop the deal and Somaliland is an independent state, added to the uproar. The parliamentary motion to ban DPWorld from operating in Somalia and declare the Berbera deal null and void followed.

I think generally this is a silly move, from a Government that appears to be focused on optics and narrative directed to the diaspora. Somalia has little to no leverage against the UAE, and is powerless to enforce any ruling on Berbera. As I said earlier, the more likely outcome would be for Somaliland to dig in and proceed with the deal and that appears to be happening. The SL Parliament passed a motion supporting the deal and their President was in Abu Dhabi the other day. Construction on the port has already started in Berbera. What did the Somali Government get out of this move? Im not quite sure. Qatar appears to be offering various military and port deals, to replace the role DPWorld is playing but I dont see the net benefit. While Somalia did not choose to be implicated in the Gulf dispute, it does not seem smart for the Government to take a boisterous stance it can do little to enforce. I also would not be surprised if Puntland later rejects the ruling as well.