ESPN NBA Forecast: 2016-17 West standings

Skooby

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Western Conference projections
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1. Golden State Warriors
Projected record: 67-15
Last season: 73-9

The Warriors became the first team in NBA history to finish a season with the league's best record and then add a former MVP still under the age of 30 in the following offseason. Despite the addition of Kevin Durant, our forecast projects the record-breaking Warriors will come back down to earth -- slightly -- to the tune of 67 wins. The folks in Las Vegas have placed Golden State's over/under win total at 68.5. You can also get +500 odds for the Dubs to win 74 or more games.

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2. San Antonio Spurs
Proj. record: 57-25
Last season: 67-15

For the first time since 1996-97, the Spurs will open a season without Tim Duncan, who retired this summer after 19 seasons. While losing Duncan is certainly the headliner, San Antonio's frontcourt must also replace the production of David West, Boris Diaw and fan favorite Boban Marjanovic. The main addition is Pau Gasol, who made the All-Star team in each of the past two seasons and is one of three players to average at least 15 points and 10 rebounds per game in each of the past two seasons. The others? Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.

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3. Los Angeles Clippers
Proj. record: 52-30
Last season: 53-29

Our panel sees a similar regular season for the Clippers, whose promising postseason ended with injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. It's mostly the same roster, with Doc Rivers re-signing Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Wesley Johnson, while adding Raymond Felton, Brandon Bass and Marreese Speights. This could be the group's last run together, as both Paul and Griffin can become unrestricted free agents after this season.

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4. Portland Trail Blazers
Proj. record: 46-36
Last season: 44-38

As last season's surprise, our panel sees further progress for a Portland team that spent serious dough this summer to keep its roster intact. The Blazers spent just north of $290 million dollars this offseason on new deals for C.J. McCollum, Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard and Evan Turner. And with Damian Lillard's five-year, $139.9 million contract kicking in this season, Portland is going all-in to return to contention in the West.

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5. Utah Jazz
Proj. record: 45-37
Last season: 40-42

With veterans George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw joining a young and promising nucleus led by Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, our forecast has Utah leaping from the lottery to the No. 5 seed. In addition to the stable of veteran support, Dante Exum -- the No. 5 overall pick in 2014 -- is set to return after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. A methodical squad, the Jazz ranked third in defensive efficiency after the All-Star break, while playing at the league's slowest pace.

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6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Proj. record: 44-38
Last season: 55-27

Despite OKC's losing Kevin Durant and trading away Serge Ibaka for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and Domantas Sabonis, our panel still likes the Thunder's chances of making the playoffs. Over the past two seasons, Russell Westbrook played 48 games without Durant; he averaged 30.5 points, 9.2 assists and 7.6 rebounds, and he registered 11 triple-doubles. Oklahoma City went 25-23 in those 48 games, which would equate to 43 wins, just barely south of where our forecast places the Thunder in 2016-17.

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7. Memphis Grizzlies
Proj. record: 43-39
Last season: 42-40

A total of 28 players saw action for the Grizzlies last season, an NBA single-season record, so why does our panel project an improvement of only one win, despite the Grizzlies adding Chandler Parsons and re-signing Mike Conley? Age and health are factors. Zach Randolph turned 35 in July and saw declines in scoring and rebounding last season. And Marc Gasol, who will be 32 by season's end, is recovering from a broken foot and has missed 20 or more games in two of the past three seasons.

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8. Houston Rockets
Proj. record: 41-41
Last season: 41-41

We know a bit about how Houston will play. The already 3-oriented offense should get a boost with new coach Mike D'Antoni arriving in town and the additions of Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, who both averaged 15 points and two 3-pointers per game last season in New Orleans. But the departure of Dwight Howard cost Houston a strong interior presence on defense. Our panel expects the Rockets to hover around .500 once again.

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9. Dallas Mavericks
Proj. record: 40-42
Last season: 42-40

The Mavericks added Harrison Barnes, Andrew Bogut and a player named Curry (Steph's brother, Seth) this offseason, but don't expect this team to become the Dallas Warriors. Our panel projects the Mavericks to see a decrease in wins this season. Age is a big issue here: Dirk Nowitzki is 38; Deron Williams is 32; Wesley Matthews will be 30 in October; and Bogut will be 32 in November.

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10. Minnesota Timberwolves
Proj. record: 39-43
Last season: 29-53

One of the biggest projected win increases next season belongs to the Timberwolves, and it's not hard to see why. Look at the young talent new coach Tom Thibodeau has on hand. Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 18 points and 10 rebounds per game in his rookie season; the last five rookies to do that before him were Blake Griffin, Elton Brand, Tim Duncan, Alonzo Mourning and Shaquille O'Neal. The 2014 No. 1 overall pick, Andrew Wiggins, averaged 20 points per game last season. Kris Dunn, whom the Wolves took fifth overall in June's draft, looks like the next young star in line.

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11. New Orleans Pelicans
Proj. record: 35-47
Last season: 30-52

After winning 45 games and making the playoffs in 2014-15, the Pelicans fell well below expectations with a 30-win effort last season. Anthony Davis missed 21 games and posted the worst shooting percentage of his career as the Pelicans finished 12th in the West. Our panel is expecting a rebound of sorts for New Orleans this season, but until Davis proves he can play a full season (he has missed at least 14 games every year), the Pelicans' ceiling might go only so high.

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12. Denver Nuggets
Proj. record: 34-48
Last season: 33-49

The Nuggets' youth movement continued this offseason, as the franchise had three first-round picks. Jamal Murray (19 years old), Malik Beasley (19) and Juan Hernangomez (20) will join the likes of Emmanuel Mudiay (20), Nikola Jokic (21) and Jusuf Nurkic (21). Our panel doesn't project the Nuggets' showing much immediate improvement, but it depends on how quickly the young pieces come together.

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13. Sacramento Kings
Proj. record: 30-52
Last season: 33-49


Last season, the Kings won their most games (33) since the 2007-08 season, but our projections have the team regressing once again. DeMarcus Cousins set a career high in scoring last season with 26.9 points per game, but the disgruntled superstar was once again unhappy with the Kings' draft after the team took Greek big man Georgios Papagiannis (via trade) and drafted another Kentucky big in Skal Labissiere.

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14. Phoenix Suns
Proj. record: 26-56
Last season: 23-59

The Suns walked away from the 2016 NBA draft with two of the top eight picks in power forwards Dragan Bender (fourth overall) and Marquese Chriss (eighth overall). Throw in the 13th overall pick from 2015 in Devin Booker and the Suns have a trio of players who will be no older than 20 by season's end. The youthful talent is intriguing, and our panel expects improvement from Phoenix, but it also knows that inexperience doesn't lead to wins in the NBA.

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15. Los Angeles Lakers
Proj. record: 25-57
Last season: 17-65

The 2016-17 season will be the first since 1995-96 without Kobe Bryant in a Lakers uniform. Kobe's retirement might not help ticket sales, but it will give D'Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram a chance to shine in L.A.'s spotlight. That should allow the Lakers a chance to improve on a franchise-worst 17 wins last season.
 

Skooby

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Projected East standings
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1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Proj. record: 57-25
Last season: 57-25

The Cavaliers cruised to 57 wins last season and will face an even lighter challenge in the East this season, according to our forecast. While free agent LeBron James is expected to return, J.R. Smith could still sign elsewhere this summer. Smith led the Cavaliers with 204 3-pointers last season, 46 more than anyone else on the roster.

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T-2. Boston Celtics
Proj. record: 51-31
Last season: 48-34

Our panel sees the Celtics improving their record for the third straight season and breaking the 50-win barrier. Does it shortchange Boston to suggest Al Horford and No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown are worth only three wins? Perhaps. But though accomplished, Horford has been a part of only two 50-win teams in his nine-year NBA career.

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T-2. Toronto Raptors
Proj. record: 51-31
Last season: 56-26

The Raptors' frontcourt lost depth this offseason, as both Bismack Biyombo (82 games played last season) and Luis Scola (76 games) signed elsewhere, to be replaced by Jared Sullinger and rookie Jakob Poeltl. If the Raptors do win their projected 51 games next season, it would still be the second-most wins in a season in franchise history.

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T-4. Detroit Pistons
Proj. record: 45-37
Last season: 44-38

The Pistons are bringing back virtually the same roster they fielded last postseason, which would explain an increase of only one win by our panel. Last season, the Pistons didn't have many peaks or valleys: They never finished a month more than three games above or below .500.

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T-4. Indiana Pacers
Proj. record: 45-37
Last season: 45-37

Upon first glance, the 3-team trade that brought in Jeff Teague and shipped out George Hill might appear to be a win for the Pacers. Teague is two years younger and is coming off a 2015-16 season in which he averaged more points and assists per game than Hill. But ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM) paints a different picture. In 2015-16, Hill ranked 17th among point guards while Teague ranked 29th. Hill had ranked ahead of Teague in RPM each of the past three seasons.

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6. Atlanta Hawks
Proj. record: 44-38
Last season: 48-34

On the surface, Dwight Howard brings more rebounds, blocked shots and a better ability to finish at the hoop. However, according to RPM, which estimates on-court team performance, former Hawk Horford ranked 27th with a 2.97 rating last season, while Howard had a -0.04 rating. Atlanta still projects as a playoff team, but our forecast thinks it'll take a hit with Dwight.

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7. Charlotte Hornets
Proj. record: 43-39
Last season: 48-34

Kemba Walker took a step forward last season, averaging a career-best 20.9 points per game. His potential has the Hornets still above .500 according to our projections, but the losses of Al Jefferson, Jeremy Lin and Courtney Lee will make it hard for the Hornets to get back to such heights.

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8. Washington Wizards
Proj. record: 41-41
Last season: 41-41

Having spent seven seasons with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, new Wizards coach Scott Brooks has experience winning with a pair of young stars. And while John Wall is a proven All-Star, there are still questions about Bradley Beal, who inked a max contract this summer. For Brooks to get the most out of them, Beal needs to be healthy. In four seasons, the now 23-year-old shooting guard has played in 65 or more games just once (179 players have appeared in more games than Beal in the past four seasons).

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T-9. New York Knicks
Proj. record: 40-42
Last season: 32-50

The Knicks were the most improved team last season in terms of win-loss record, and now they've added former MVP Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah to the fold. If healthy, our projections could short the Knicks. However, our panel knows that Rose has missed 244 games the past five seasons and Noah has missed 68 games the past two seasons.

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T-9. Chicago Bulls
Proj. record: 40-42
Last season: 42-40

The Bulls made some of the biggest splashes of the offseason, trading Rose while bringing in assist machine Rajon Rondo and three-time NBA champion Dwyane Wade. But is this Bulls team built for the modern NBA? The Bulls' starting perimeter -- Rondo, Wade and Jimmy Butler -- combined to make 133 3-pointers last season on 31.7 percent shooting.

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11. Milwaukee Bucks
Proj. record: 39-43
Last season: 33-49

The Bucks' size continues to intrigue and leads our panel to believe the team can improve despite Matthew Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic being the big offseason additions. But a starting lineup of five players all 6-foot-6 or taller, and the potential of more Giannis Antetokounmpo at the point, should get the Bucks closer to .500.

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12. Miami Heat
Proj. record: 36-46
Last season: 48-34


The franchise leader in scoring and the guy who helped bring three titles to Miami is gone, as are Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. But our panel isn't totally crushing the Heat, because a youth movement built on Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson could keep Miami in the hunt.

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13. Orlando Magic
Proj. record: 35-47
Last season: 35-47

Are the Magic any better or worse off for trading Victor Oladipo for Serge Ibaka? Both play great defense but struggle to get involved offensively. You could say the same for other Magic additions in Bismack Biyombo and Jeff Green.

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T-14. Philadelphia 76ers
Proj. record: 20-62
Last season: 10-72

Our projections have the 76ers doubling their win total from last season thanks in part to No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons. While it's a projection of "only" 20 wins, for Philadelphia that would be the franchise's most since 2012-13 when the Sixers won 34 games.

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T-14. Brooklyn Nets
Proj. record: 20-62
Last season: 21-61

Despite mainstay Brook Lopez and Linsanity hitting Brooklyn, the Nets are projected to drop a win, according to our panel. The Nets had the second-worst defensive efficiency last season, and offensive-minded additions like Lin, Luis Scola and Greivis Vasquez aren't going to help matters.
 

DlAMONDZ

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If Gobert stays healthy I see Utah taking that 4th spot

The West fell the fukk off doe. After 1-3, the rest are mediocre at best
 

AVXL

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I can see minny getting up to top 5 in the west

I think okc will make the playoffs but I don't think they getting up to 6th

I also think Memphis could be better than expected

Based on these projections you see Minny being 17 games better than last year? :dwillhuh:

Can they be a .500 team first before you start talking crazy?
 

SchoolboyC

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Based on these projections you see Minny being 17 games better than last year? :dwillhuh:

Can they be a .500 team first before you start talking crazy?

I mean, it's not impossible. They improved by 13 wins in 2015-16 compared to 2014-15. You don't think adding an elite coach in Thibs, and with the development of Towns/Wiggins/LaVine/Dunn that they could make another big jump?
 
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