1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Age: 24 |
Highest ranking: 1 |
Lowest ranking: 4
Nearly 30 voters were polled, and all but one picked Mahomes first overall.
"Everything else is a grab bag," one AFC exec said. "He's the face of the league." That was evident by
the Chiefs' signing Mahomes to a record 10-year, $450 million extension Monday, with a total package that can push the 12-year pact (he had two years left on his rookie deal) up to $503 million.
It's easy to detail Mahomes' dominance statistically and anecdotally:
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- second player to win a Super Bowl and MVP in his first three seasons
- QB ratings of 113.8 and 105.3 as a two-year starter
- 304 yards and 2.53 passing touchdowns per game
- arm talent to complete passes from all bodily contortions
- leads NFL with 22 touchdown passes of 20-plus yards downfield and 17 touchdown passes on the run since 2018
But the biggest impact is creating big plays when he decides it's time to win -- like uncorking a 44-yarder to
Tyreek Hill from deep in the pocket on third-and-long in the Super Bowl.
"Talk to 31 defensive coordinators, they'd all say they are least excited about playing this guy," one NFL veteran assistant coach said. "Only getting better with dealing with defenses, too."
The Chiefs rave about his relatability and leadership, as well.
One knock is unnecessary risk-taking.
"Our coach came in our meeting room [before a Chiefs game] and said, 'Listen guys, his model is touchdown or touchback,'" one veteran NFL cornerback said. "He's gonna launch it. You saw it in the Super Bowl. They keep airing it out. So there are chances to get him."
2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Age: 31 |
Highest ranking: 2 |
Lowest ranking: 9
Wilson dominated the second-place voting as he leans into his prime years, gaining strength while his peers age. He's coming off one of his most efficient seasons with a 6.2 touchdown-interception ratio, tops for anyone who also ranked top-10 in passing yardage.
He was the only NFL quarterback to rank top-five in QBR inside the pocket (fifth, 67.9) and outside (fourth, 82.8).
"He can do it all: stand in the pocket, extend plays, kills you on the move, has the magic to him," one veteran offensive coach said. "Stage gets bigger, he plays better."
Wilson thrives off unscripted plays so much that some don't consider him a rhythm-and-timing passer. Former Seahawks receivers are known to have to recalibrate their route running after years of just scrambling to get open in Seattle.
But who really cares when Wilson is tied with Mahomes with 17 touchdowns under duress since 2018, despite having a lesser supporting cast?
"He's never really had a top-10 receiver, his tight ends are just OK, line isn't great, and yet he keeps doing it every year," one NFC exec said.
3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Age: 36 |
Highest ranking: 2 |
Lowest ranking: 7
What's shocking about the Packers' decision to draft
Jordan Love is that Rodgers isn't a fringe guy. He was No. 3 on this list by a wide margin, and voters swear it's not based on reputation.
"When he's humming, he's still Tier 1, without question," one NFL coordinator said. "The things he can do, maybe outside Mahomes, nobody can do. He's lost a little bit of athleticism. But when he can move around, and beat you inside out, holy s---, he's scary."
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Rodgers' numbers from the past few years are just OK. The Packers looked woefully underwhelming at times in 2019. A player who used to reside annually in the 100-plus QB rating tier sagged to 95.4 last season.
But many believe Rodgers will be much better in Year 2 of Matt LaFleur's system -- and expect a huge response in light of the Love pick. Rodgers was Mahomes before Mahomes with the arm strength, and stories of his football mind are legendary. He can still attack anywhere on the field on split-second reaction plays.
One prominent NFL defensive coach recalled Rodgers trying to toy with him between each snap, looking his way from the line of scrimmage and saying, "Call it," knowing he's got the perfect counter for whatever the defense does. Call it justified arrogance.
"One time our safety ran out with the running back, Rodgers checked into something to beat the safety, then proceeded to kill him all game," a veteran NFL defensive back said. "He notices matchups like no other."
4. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Age: 24 |
Highest ranking: 3 |
Lowest ranking: 11
Watson was engaged in a tight race with
Drew Brees for much of the voting, but he was consistently in the top six because of his toughness and the dynamic plays he creates.
"That Buffalo playoff game -- they won that game because of that guy. Nobody else," one veteran offensive coach said. "They had at least three free runs on him late and he made huge plays."
Added an NFC exec: "He's running for his life and he's still doing some special stuff."
That has played out in Watson's late-game consistency. Watson has 10 game-winning drives since 2018, the most of any NFL quarterback during that span.
One NFC exec says Watson isn't an easy evaluation because his skill set isn't overwhelming and he isn't a true pocket passer, but he just "makes things happen. He's comfortable doing what he's been doing all his life."
Scouts see shades of Wilson, with slightly less in the instincts and lower-body strength departments. He reduced his sacks from 62 to 44 in 2019, and finished sixth in completion percentage (67.3).
"Deshaun needs a little more structure," one coordinator said. "Not as dynamic as Russell or
Kyler [Murray] with getting it done. He plays too much streetball and they let him. I don't see him coached."
5. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Age: 41 |
Highest ranking: 2 |
Lowest ranking: 11
This is where the QB picture gets complicated. Brees got many top-three votes because his pocket savvy is unreal and he's working with a true guru in coach Sean Payton. He just posted a career-high 116.3 passer rating and can complete 70% of his passes without sweating at this point.
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But more than a few people noticed when
Taysom Hill had to enter a game just to throw a deep ball. Even so, Brees was eighth in air yards per attempt, at 8.8.
"The system he's in is so ideal that I don't necessarily feel like he's dropped off that much," an AFC scout said. "I would be more concerned about Brees than Brady if I were a DC."
It's all about anticipation and smarts at this stage, and since the ball is usually out of his hands in two seconds or less, arm strength can be minimized.
Many expect Brees to be off this list next year, thanks to retirement.
"I think this is it, so we should all enjoy it," one NFL veteran linebacker said. "He's got the weapons around him to win another one."
