Five Thirty Eight's breakdown of the SB interception - Statistical data

[nalej]

After reading this I'll say I feel slightly better about that call. Numbers don't lie.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-of-the-super-bowl-and-it-wasnt-pete-carroll/

 

[Teko]

Thats a long ass article. I still cant believe they fukked up a money play.

 

[Virtual Ninja]

My thing is, why not try a bootleg play if you want to pass? That gives you the option for a RW run to the pylon, throw it away or even go down in bounds on a run.

It isn't so much that they passed to me, but the type of pass they called.

 

[nalej]

Thats a long ass article. I still cant believe they fukked up a money play.

Just read the last portion. But in summary

That’s right. On the 1-yard line, QBs threw 66 touchdowns with no interceptions prior to Wilson’s errant toss.3 Not mentioned: They also scored four touchdowns on scrambles (which Wilson is pretty good at last I checked). That’s a 60.9 percent success rate.

Just for comparison’s sake, here’s how more than 200 runs fared this year in the same situation:

• 125 led to touchdowns.
• 94 failed to score.
• Of those, 23 were for loss of yardage.
• Two resulted in lost fumbles.

So overall, runs do a bit worse than passes (57.1 percent vs. 60.9 percent).

 

[South Paw]

@nalej the problem isnt even the pass, its the pass that was called. a quick slant when they already in goalline d? Thats the most cluttered part of the endzone. pa, rollout, something....

 

[Mr Hate Coffee]

@nalej the problem isnt even the pass, its the pass that was called. a quick slant when they already in goalline d? Thats the most cluttered part of the endzone. pa, rollout, something....

Yup exactly.

It's the type of shyt where in Madden, even if that play was money ALL GAME you wouldn't call it just because of the pure fukkery that could occur.

 

[ghostwriterx]

"Based on Advanced Football Analytics’ Win Probability Calculator, a team starting at the 25-yard line and down three points with 20 seconds left in the game will win about 5 percent of the time."

Stopped reading here.

 

[nalej]

"Based on Advanced Football Analytics’ Win Probability Calculator, a team starting at the 25-yard line and down three points with 20 seconds left in the game will win about 5 percent of the time."

Stopped reading here.

Are you calling this site's cred in question? Do you even know who Nate Silva is

 

[ghostwriterx]

Are you calling this site's cred in question? Do you even know who Nate Silva is

No, just the methodology. All these "probabilities" are based on past events and small sample sizes, making them relatively useless.

 

[resurrection]

I still don't buy the explanation that they were just trying to run clock. If you want to let it run down, how bout you roll the QB out and only let him attempt a pass if it's wide open. Other than that, throw it away and play another down. You throw a slant into traffic and you're just asking to get picked

 

[ThaGlow]

Just read the last portion. But in summary

That’s right. On the 1-yard line, QBs threw 66 touchdowns with no interceptions prior to Wilson’s errant toss.3 Not mentioned: They also scored four touchdowns on scrambles (which Wilson is pretty good at last I checked). That’s a 60.9 percent success rate.

Just for comparison’s sake, here’s how more than 200 runs fared this year in the same situation:

• 125 led to touchdowns.
• 94 failed to score.
• Of those, 23 were for loss of yardage.
• Two resulted in lost fumbles.

So overall, runs do a bit worse than passes (57.1 percent vs. 60.9 percent).

OR just make it easier. What are the +/- for Seahawks last night's Super Bowl game every time Marshawn Lynch got the ball????????

 

[Numpsay]

I could have read that article prior to the play call and I still would felt they should have run the ball there. Numbers don't lie, but common sense is common sense.

 

[nalej]

I still don't buy the explanation that they were just trying to run clock. If you want to let it run down, how bout you roll the QB out and only let him attempt a pass if it's wide open. Other than that, throw it away and play another down. You throw a slant into traffic and you're just asking to get picked

Agreed. And if that pass was complete that argument would have been mute anyways because they wouldn't have run the clock down.

 

[Greenstrings]

Agreed. And if that pass was complete that argument would have been mute anyways because they wouldn't have run the clock down.

The elements of the article you've picked out refer to generalised stats that don't reflect the talents of the individual players involved. Marshawn Lynch is not your average RB over a season so those numbers in this context mean very little. Plus over a 4 year period passes over a similar distance weren't as effective as rushes.

Doesn't matter who Nate Silver is, he didn't write that article.

There is no reason why anybody should feel anything approaching 'good' about that play.

 

[nalej]

The elements of the article you've picked out refer to generalised stats that don't reflect the talents of the individual players involved. Marshawn Lynch is not your average RB over a season so those numbers in this context mean very little. Plus over a 4 year period passes over a similar distance weren't as effective as rushes.

Doesn't matter who Nate Silver is, he didn't write that article.

There is no reason why anybody should feel anything approaching 'good' about that play.

Well if you read the cotdamn article you would see they factored Lynch's edge into the stat and it still came out pretty even to pass or run. We can all make an opinion on if it was a good or bad call but the numbers tell that probability was about even. That is all.