FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO NBA Projections
Some mumbo-jumbo:
FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player's future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2017. Minutes played is prorated to 82 games.
First thing I looked up:
Nerlens Noel: Future All-Star
5-YR MARKET VALUE:
$140.2m
Jahlil Okafor: Prospect
5-YR MARKET VALUE:
$29.5m
Just type in any current player.
Some mumbo-jumbo:
FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player's future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2017. Minutes played is prorated to 82 games.
First thing I looked up:
Nerlens Noel: Future All-Star
5-YR MARKET VALUE:
$140.2m
Jahlil Okafor: Prospect
5-YR MARKET VALUE:
$29.5m
Just type in any current player.
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