Dirty_Jerz
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fukk the hawks
Nets in 5
Nets in 5
From Bankhead to Brooklyn: The Official Hawks vs Nets Thread
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Rickdogg44
RIP Charmander RIP Kobe
Chrishaune
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Playoffs: Scouting Hawks-Nets
How do you judge NBA organizations? We often default to the obvious. If a team spends a lot and fails, it is poorly run. If it spends little and wins, then you're giving awards to its executives. The reality of that sort of evaluation is infinitely more nuanced than that, but if surface-level judgments are as deep as you care to go, the series between the Hawks and Nets is one of polar opposites.
The Hawks spent about $58 million dollars to win 60 games for the first time in the history of a 66-year old franchise. Meanwhile, the Nets spent $88.4 million in pre-tax payroll to eke into the playoffs with 38 wins on the final night of the season. If you use the old marginal dollars per marginal wins methodology, the Hawks were the fifth-most efficient organization in the league. Brooklyn, on the other hand, ranked 27th, better than only the triumvirate of the Knicks, Lakers and Timberwolves, who exceeded the salary cap in order to win 54 combined games, fewer than six teams did all on their own.
The Hawks were the eighth seed in the East last spring, a spot that normally serves as a first-round sacrificial lamb for some powerhouse top seed. But Atlanta pushed the Pacers to the limit, and roared through the regular season this year to take Indiana's top spot in the bracket. In the 32 years since the NBA went to eight playoff teams per conference, it's a leap that's happened just once before, when Chicago went from eighth to first in 2010. Meanwhile, despite all its spending, Brooklyn has gone from 49 to 44 to 38 wins during the past three seasons, while its seed has gone from four to six to eight. Nevertheless, since the All-Star break, the Nets have gone 17-13, just one game worse than Atlanta's 17-11 mark. Could the Nets do to the Hawks what the Hawks did to the Pacers this time last year? We'll soon find out.
QUESTION 1: The Hawks didn't exactly light up the league after clinching the East's top seed early. Any chance of a hangover?
Amin Elhassan: It's not just a hangover: This Hawks team had several missed games during the second half of the season due to either scheduled rest (most notably March 28 against Charlotte and April 12 vs. Washington) or legitimate injury. Kyle Korver missed three games in mid-March after fracturing his nose, Paul Millsap missed five of the team's last six games nursing a shoulder sprain, and of course, most importantly, Thabo Sefolosha missed a ton of time in February and March due to a calf strain, only to return and suffer a season-ending broken leg in a scuffle with the NYPD. The severity of Sefolosha's calf injury gave us a glimpse of life for the Hawks without him, and as I wrote on Insider Daily, while Atlanta posted a solid record in his absence (15-10), the team missed his defensive impact, as well as his ability to handle the rock and operate the secondary pick-and-roll. Having said all that, drawing the Nets in the first round will disguise many of those issues.
Bradford Doolittle: Because the Hawks under the Danny Ferry-Mark Budenholzer regime have mirrored the operations of the San Antonio Spurs so precisely, it's hard to worry too much about Atlanta's lackluster finish. Budenholzer rested his starters liberally, sometimes keeping out his entire starting five for entire games at a time. It's a page straight out of the Popovich handbook, at least for the seasons when the Spurs don't have to turn it on late. What is worrisome about the Hawks is that there is always the possibility that they were overachieving when rolling up so many early-season wins. While they might be better than their 17-11 finish, that mark may be closer to their true talent level. To wit: The starting five of Al Horford, Jeff Teague, DeMarre Carroll, Korver and Millsap outscored opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions in 674 minutes before the All-Star break, per NBA.com/stats. But in 241 minutes after the break, that number was down to 3.6. The real Hawks are probably somewhere between those arbitrary end points, which frankly should be more than good enough to beat Brooklyn.
QUESTION 2: Deron Williams and Brook Lopez were resurgent after the All-Star break, at least until they weren't, as they kind of limped to the finish line. What can we expect from them, and how do whatever hopes the Nets have rest on their production?
Elhassan: Brooklyn's moonwalk into the postseason is hardly inspiring, especially when you consider they almost lost their must-win game against the Orlando Magic on the last day of the season. Of course, this rough patch also coincided with the Jackie MacMullan article in which former Net Paul Pierce revealed that he felt that Williams struggled with the pressures of his salary and playing in New York. Specifically against Atlanta, it should come as no surprise that Lopez experienced some of his best basketball, as the Hawks' lack of size up front allowed him to thrive to the tune of 18.8 points per game and 7.5 rebounds (3.5 on the offensive glass). Williams, by contrast, predictably struggled against the Hawks defense, which is better geared to defuse perimeter threats.
Doolittle: The Nets' hopes have rested on Williams and Lopez for years now, even if injuries and the glossy names around them have obscured that fact far too often. Few players in the league were more improved over the season's second half than Lopez, whose winning percentage jumped 126 points over the first half. Williams, on the other hand, was actually better in the first half, even if he did have a stretch of big games after the All-Star break. As always, you get the feeling that the performances of Lopez and Williams hinge on how they feel. And no one really knows how they're going to feel. But how important is it that they both do well? According the Game Score metric from Basketball-Reference.com, there were 23 games in which both Williams and Lopez both posted a score of at least 10. The Nets won 17 of those. They were 21-38 the rest of the time.
QUESTION 3: Atlanta's elite offense begins the postseason against a Nets defense that was porous during the second half of the season. Is there anything Brooklyn can do to keep the scoreboard from spinning out of control?
Elhassan: Playing the Hawks becomes a "pick your poison" affair. By playing to your strength (and their weakness), it makes sense to punish them with size, but in order to effectively defend against them, it's imperative to be nimble and long on the perimeter. In that sense, continuing to find minutes for defensive perimeter players like Markel Brown and even late-season pickup Earl Clark would probably serve the Nets well. But if we're being perfectly honest, shutting down the Hawks does not seem to be a realistic goal on Brooklyn's agenda.
Doolittle: The Atlanta defense also declined a little during the second half, but its offense was in the top seven in both halves. The Nets' defense, on the other hand, was the second-worst in the league during the second half, undermining a much-improved offense. The Hawks are an elite-shooting team, and they do their damage both inside and outside the arc. To start, Williams will need to keep Teague and Dennis Schroder out of the lane, while Lopez will have to hold his own against Horford despite owning a negative defensive real plus-minus, (which is not easy for a center to obtain). Another key will be for Bogdanovic and his minus-3.89 defensive RPM to maintain the integrity of his assignment against Atlanta's deep shooters, particularly Korver. Bogdanovic has been key for the Nets off the bench of late, and Brooklyn needs to be able to keep him on the floor to give Korver someone to chase.
Predictions
Elhassan: Hawks in four. This Nets team did not deserve to be in the playoffs, despite their late-season hot stretch. They're uninspiring offensively and ineffective defensively, and while Atlanta has its issues that it will have to reckon with in the postseason, the Hawks will manage to avoid confronting those issues for at least one round. .
Doolittle: Hawks in five. Atlanta's defense is much better as a group than they are as individuals and ranked 28th in points per play against isolations, according to Synergy Sports Technologies. In the past, that could have meant a heavy dose of Joe Johnson, who would surely love to light up his former club. However, Johnson is no longer at the level where he's going to beat a No. 1 seed alone. Atlanta may have come down from its high-flying (no ornithological pun intended) ways earlier this season, but this is a sound, consistent basketball team. Atlanta will be tested in the East bracket, but not this round. The Hawks won all four regular-season meetings by an average of 17.2 points.
Don't be surprised if ...
Elhassan: None of these games' outcomes hang in the balance in the last five minutes.
Doolittle: Korver gets his due as a clutch performer. If any of the games are close, that is. Korver ranked 15th in the league in clutch WARP, and second on the Hawks behind 11th-place Teague. But here is the staggering number: In 91 clutch minutes, Korver posted a true shooting percentage of .903 and shot 56.3 percent on 3s.
BPI Projection
83 percent chance Hawks win series. Most likely series outcome is Hawks in five.
How do you judge NBA organizations? We often default to the obvious. If a team spends a lot and fails, it is poorly run. If it spends little and wins, then you're giving awards to its executives. The reality of that sort of evaluation is infinitely more nuanced than that, but if surface-level judgments are as deep as you care to go, the series between the Hawks and Nets is one of polar opposites.
The Hawks spent about $58 million dollars to win 60 games for the first time in the history of a 66-year old franchise. Meanwhile, the Nets spent $88.4 million in pre-tax payroll to eke into the playoffs with 38 wins on the final night of the season. If you use the old marginal dollars per marginal wins methodology, the Hawks were the fifth-most efficient organization in the league. Brooklyn, on the other hand, ranked 27th, better than only the triumvirate of the Knicks, Lakers and Timberwolves, who exceeded the salary cap in order to win 54 combined games, fewer than six teams did all on their own.
The Hawks were the eighth seed in the East last spring, a spot that normally serves as a first-round sacrificial lamb for some powerhouse top seed. But Atlanta pushed the Pacers to the limit, and roared through the regular season this year to take Indiana's top spot in the bracket. In the 32 years since the NBA went to eight playoff teams per conference, it's a leap that's happened just once before, when Chicago went from eighth to first in 2010. Meanwhile, despite all its spending, Brooklyn has gone from 49 to 44 to 38 wins during the past three seasons, while its seed has gone from four to six to eight. Nevertheless, since the All-Star break, the Nets have gone 17-13, just one game worse than Atlanta's 17-11 mark. Could the Nets do to the Hawks what the Hawks did to the Pacers this time last year? We'll soon find out.
QUESTION 1: The Hawks didn't exactly light up the league after clinching the East's top seed early. Any chance of a hangover?
Amin Elhassan: It's not just a hangover: This Hawks team had several missed games during the second half of the season due to either scheduled rest (most notably March 28 against Charlotte and April 12 vs. Washington) or legitimate injury. Kyle Korver missed three games in mid-March after fracturing his nose, Paul Millsap missed five of the team's last six games nursing a shoulder sprain, and of course, most importantly, Thabo Sefolosha missed a ton of time in February and March due to a calf strain, only to return and suffer a season-ending broken leg in a scuffle with the NYPD. The severity of Sefolosha's calf injury gave us a glimpse of life for the Hawks without him, and as I wrote on Insider Daily, while Atlanta posted a solid record in his absence (15-10), the team missed his defensive impact, as well as his ability to handle the rock and operate the secondary pick-and-roll. Having said all that, drawing the Nets in the first round will disguise many of those issues.
Bradford Doolittle: Because the Hawks under the Danny Ferry-Mark Budenholzer regime have mirrored the operations of the San Antonio Spurs so precisely, it's hard to worry too much about Atlanta's lackluster finish. Budenholzer rested his starters liberally, sometimes keeping out his entire starting five for entire games at a time. It's a page straight out of the Popovich handbook, at least for the seasons when the Spurs don't have to turn it on late. What is worrisome about the Hawks is that there is always the possibility that they were overachieving when rolling up so many early-season wins. While they might be better than their 17-11 finish, that mark may be closer to their true talent level. To wit: The starting five of Al Horford, Jeff Teague, DeMarre Carroll, Korver and Millsap outscored opponents by 9.8 points per 100 possessions in 674 minutes before the All-Star break, per NBA.com/stats. But in 241 minutes after the break, that number was down to 3.6. The real Hawks are probably somewhere between those arbitrary end points, which frankly should be more than good enough to beat Brooklyn.
QUESTION 2: Deron Williams and Brook Lopez were resurgent after the All-Star break, at least until they weren't, as they kind of limped to the finish line. What can we expect from them, and how do whatever hopes the Nets have rest on their production?
Elhassan: Brooklyn's moonwalk into the postseason is hardly inspiring, especially when you consider they almost lost their must-win game against the Orlando Magic on the last day of the season. Of course, this rough patch also coincided with the Jackie MacMullan article in which former Net Paul Pierce revealed that he felt that Williams struggled with the pressures of his salary and playing in New York. Specifically against Atlanta, it should come as no surprise that Lopez experienced some of his best basketball, as the Hawks' lack of size up front allowed him to thrive to the tune of 18.8 points per game and 7.5 rebounds (3.5 on the offensive glass). Williams, by contrast, predictably struggled against the Hawks defense, which is better geared to defuse perimeter threats.
Doolittle: The Nets' hopes have rested on Williams and Lopez for years now, even if injuries and the glossy names around them have obscured that fact far too often. Few players in the league were more improved over the season's second half than Lopez, whose winning percentage jumped 126 points over the first half. Williams, on the other hand, was actually better in the first half, even if he did have a stretch of big games after the All-Star break. As always, you get the feeling that the performances of Lopez and Williams hinge on how they feel. And no one really knows how they're going to feel. But how important is it that they both do well? According the Game Score metric from Basketball-Reference.com, there were 23 games in which both Williams and Lopez both posted a score of at least 10. The Nets won 17 of those. They were 21-38 the rest of the time.
QUESTION 3: Atlanta's elite offense begins the postseason against a Nets defense that was porous during the second half of the season. Is there anything Brooklyn can do to keep the scoreboard from spinning out of control?
Elhassan: Playing the Hawks becomes a "pick your poison" affair. By playing to your strength (and their weakness), it makes sense to punish them with size, but in order to effectively defend against them, it's imperative to be nimble and long on the perimeter. In that sense, continuing to find minutes for defensive perimeter players like Markel Brown and even late-season pickup Earl Clark would probably serve the Nets well. But if we're being perfectly honest, shutting down the Hawks does not seem to be a realistic goal on Brooklyn's agenda.
Doolittle: The Atlanta defense also declined a little during the second half, but its offense was in the top seven in both halves. The Nets' defense, on the other hand, was the second-worst in the league during the second half, undermining a much-improved offense. The Hawks are an elite-shooting team, and they do their damage both inside and outside the arc. To start, Williams will need to keep Teague and Dennis Schroder out of the lane, while Lopez will have to hold his own against Horford despite owning a negative defensive real plus-minus, (which is not easy for a center to obtain). Another key will be for Bogdanovic and his minus-3.89 defensive RPM to maintain the integrity of his assignment against Atlanta's deep shooters, particularly Korver. Bogdanovic has been key for the Nets off the bench of late, and Brooklyn needs to be able to keep him on the floor to give Korver someone to chase.
Predictions
Elhassan: Hawks in four. This Nets team did not deserve to be in the playoffs, despite their late-season hot stretch. They're uninspiring offensively and ineffective defensively, and while Atlanta has its issues that it will have to reckon with in the postseason, the Hawks will manage to avoid confronting those issues for at least one round. .
Doolittle: Hawks in five. Atlanta's defense is much better as a group than they are as individuals and ranked 28th in points per play against isolations, according to Synergy Sports Technologies. In the past, that could have meant a heavy dose of Joe Johnson, who would surely love to light up his former club. However, Johnson is no longer at the level where he's going to beat a No. 1 seed alone. Atlanta may have come down from its high-flying (no ornithological pun intended) ways earlier this season, but this is a sound, consistent basketball team. Atlanta will be tested in the East bracket, but not this round. The Hawks won all four regular-season meetings by an average of 17.2 points.
Don't be surprised if ...
Elhassan: None of these games' outcomes hang in the balance in the last five minutes.
Doolittle: Korver gets his due as a clutch performer. If any of the games are close, that is. Korver ranked 15th in the league in clutch WARP, and second on the Hawks behind 11th-place Teague. But here is the staggering number: In 91 clutch minutes, Korver posted a true shooting percentage of .903 and shot 56.3 percent on 3s.
BPI Projection
83 percent chance Hawks win series. Most likely series outcome is Hawks in five.
Illuminatos
#OVOXO
Ayy shout out to the Hawks fans. Ya'll finally made it off NBA TV and on to primetime ESPN. 
EDIT: Nevermind Game 2 is on NBA TV.
EDIT: Nevermind Game 2 is on NBA TV.
@charmander sweep em
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Rickdogg44
RIP Charmander RIP Kobe
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Hawks in 4