How valuable are 1st round NBA picks if you're not in the lottery?

[Remote]

A lot has been made of all the 1st round picks the Orlando Magic gave up to acquire Desmond Bane from the Memphis Grizzlies.
Four 1st rounders is a fairly hefty price. But how hefty is it?

The Orlando Magic were 41-41 this past season, just good enough to get bounced in the 1st round by the Boston Celtics.
Barring certain circumstances, when you're a near .500 team you'll likely be drafting somewhere in the middle of the 1st round -- let's call it Pick 14 to Pick 17 as an arbitrary range for the sake of discussion.

How many 1st round draft picks going in the middle of the 1st round become solid contributors? How many become impactful starters?
Do you think it's likely the Orlando Magic could find their own Desmond Bane in the NBA draft if they remain a moderate contending team drafting in the middle of the 1st round?

Here is a list of players from 2014 through 2023 who were drafted 14th to 17th overall:

2014: TJ Warren, Adreian Payne, Jusuf Nurkic, James Young
2015: Cameron Payne, Kelly Oubre, Terry Rozier, Rashad Vaughn
2016: Denzel Valentine, Juancho Hernangomez, Guershon Yabusele, Wade Baldwin
2017: Bam Adebayo, Justin Jackson, Chris Patton, DJ Wilson
2018: Michael Porter Jr, Troy Brown, Zhaire Smith, Donte DiVincenzo
2019: Romeo Langford, Sekou Doumbouya, Chuma Okeke, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
2020: Aaron Nesmith, Cole Anthony, Isaiah Stewart, Aleksej Pokusevski
2021: Moses Moody, Corey Kispert, Alperen Sengun, Trey Murphy III
2022: Ochai Agbaji, Mark Williams, AJ Griffin, Tari Eason
2023: Jordan Hawkins, Kobe Bufkin, Keyonte George, Jalen Hood-Schifino

To be sure, there are some valuable players there.
There are also quite a few duds.

The irony here: Desmond Bane himself was the 30th overall pick of the 2020 NBA draft -- so I'm not suggesting diamonds cannot be found or developed among the later picks -- as Bane has become one of the better guards in the league. I just wonder if we're being a bit too optimistic about the non-lottery talent in the NBA draft these days. And maybe Orlando wasn't as foolish as it seemed to gamble on a more proven commodity.

Discuss.

 

[blackestofpanthers]

A spurs fan asking this when they drafted two HOF with late first/second round picks is pretty funny.

 

[Remote]

A spurs fan asking this when they drafted two HOF with late first/second round picks is pretty funny.

Great.
It's funny.

Now that we got that out of the way, maybe you could state something relevant to the thread.

 

[AlbertPullhoez]

Yes they matter if the team know how to draft and develop players

 

[SchoolboyC]

Draft picks are like cars, almost always more valuable before they actually get used

 

[badboys11]

Invaluable if u know how to judge talent


First draft I watched was 93, Nick Van Exel was the best pg in the draft after Penny IMO, should've been a piston at #10. He went 37th, I didn't even see him get picked



This happens just about every year


The problem is nba front offices are crippled from nepotism and the college frat boy network, just look at the war rooms draft night. Very few front office types who can relate much less judge the potential of some of these players.


Tyrese Haliburton, Devin booker and Donovan mitchell were all drafted by the pistons if u went by the private fan pages discretion. Booker's from Michigan. Instead we got Stanley Johnson, Luke Kennard and Killian Hayes


Your not gonna win a championship without hitting on some of your later picks


And let me add, the irony of this conversation being started over a player picked 30th to begin with

 

[jwinfield]

I think they've become more valuable with the new CBA making it harder to keep good teams together. The ability to add cheap talent is critical to improving or maintaining a team. Of course, the team needs to know how to scout...

 

[Harry B]

If we disregard a teams player development abilities then every other year someone is lucky and we never know who it is.

People are drafted with 1 year in college and a lot of them develop exponentially in their 20s. Even harder is probably when you have people in Europe and shyt who play against questionable teams.


So you are still in a “lottery” just another lottery with much worse odds. But still a real probability that the one you choose might become something of solid value.

What makes it even harder is that the lower you are drafted the less chances you get and the less they invest in you

 

[SchoolboyC]

I’ll also say if there’s any team in recent history that’s shown to be able to identify quality players outside of the lottery it’s Memphis:

Dillon Brooks
Brandon Clarke
Desmond Bane
Santi Aldama
GG Jackson
Jaylen Wells

All taken between picks 21-48

One of the cheat codes to contention especially with these apron rules, is being able to hit on these picks

But that said, I don’t think it’s a bad move for Orlando. Bane doesn’t solve all their weaknesses but he makes them a better team

 

[Remote]

I think they've become more valuable with the new CBA making it harder to keep good teams together. The ability to add cheap talent is critical to improving or maintaining a team. Of course, the team needs to know how to scout...

Well the context of this is...how do you weigh the ability to get a proven guy like Bane (putting aside that he went late and BECAME a proven commodity)....how do you weigh getting a proven guy with what you MAY get in the middle of the 1st round?

Right?

It's easy to say "OMG! How dare you give up 1 first rounders for Bane???"
Well what if those 4 first rounders are four Rashad Vaughns? Because if you're on the edge of contending each year, you're likely not cracking the top 8 picks to find the truly high ceiling players.

 

[Lil Bape the PostGod]

GMs don’t care about future picks

They most likely ain’t gonna be there anyway in 2030 so who cares if you get their #2 pick 5 years from now

But if the trade works, they looked at as a goat and probably got a deep run or championship on their resume for their next team

 

[10bandz]

A spurs fan asking this when they drafted two HOF with late first/second round picks is pretty funny.

He's just on some try hard shyt because he got exposed for not watching the finals but loves to play mr officer on how NBA fans should behave.

 

[Thavoiceofthevoiceless]

I’ll also say if there’s any team in recent history that’s shown to be able to identify quality players outside of the lottery it’s Memphis:

Dillon Brooks
Brandon Clarke
Desmond Bane
Santi Aldama
GG Jackson
Jaylen Wells

All taken between picks 21-48

One of the cheat codes to contention especially with these apron rules, is being able to hit on these picks

But that said, I don’t think it’s a bad move for Orlando. Bane doesn’t solve all their weaknesses but he makes them a better team

They've whiffed on a lot of picks in recent years, so I can see why they'd go for a proven commodity over those picks.

Another detail of importance that people are overlooking when questioning the value of first round picks is that you can use them to help offload bad contracts like what Orlando just did with KCP.

 

[SchoolboyC]

They've whiffed on a lot of picks in recent years, so I can see why they'd go for a proven commodity over those picks.

Another detail of importance that people are overlooking when questioning the value of first round picks is that you can use them to help offload bad contracts like what Orlando just did with KCP.

They take Gradey dikk over Jett Howard and this trade may not have even gotten made

 

[tremonthustler1]

Adding cheap talent is one thing, but it depends on where you are as a team and whether your coaches will play those guys.


If you have cheap talent that isn't being used, then they're placeholders. Memphis at least plays their guys and gets usage out of them. Most mid to late 1's tend to either get limited PT or they're in G League. It's kinda meaningless to the lux tax or 2nd apron if they're gonna be playing behind some vet with a huge deal anyway.

Orlando is partially in this situation because not only did they draft some garbage, but also you have guys like Da Silva who don't play much, so we won't know how good he can be til later if at all.