I disagree with the bolded, but agree with almost everything else. I think the US beats China to fusion...we already had major news reports on this in the last 3 months. I think the US beats China to AI; midJourney and ChatGPT show you what can be done in the public realm, I also think the US beats China to quantum computing. The US's problem is we invent this shyt, and then DO NOTHING with it due to the bureaucracy.
Russia, China, DPRK...toss in Iran and Saudia Arabia I could see forming a union. Everyone of those countries have glaring weaknesses that will make them permanently subordinate to the US given the status quo.
- Russia, is broke and undergoing a population timebomb.
- China, has a slowing, shaky economy, devoid of resources internally capable of sustaining its current size coupled with an authoritarian regime that their rapidly shrinking population won't stand for if the economy slows too much.
- DPRK, is a failed pariah state that can't show its face on the world stage, so they have pop off with nuclear rhetoric everytime someone invalidates their existence.
- Iran, authoritarian regime that is dangerously close to their own population rising against them and really don't possess the knowledge or weaponry to hold it down without external help.
- Saudi Arabia, single-sourced economy that will be in serious trouble when and IF...and its a big IF the rest of the world moves away from oil. Tourism will not sustain them.
But together they cancel out the worst of each and have the ability to be each others crutches. If they can check their egos momentarily while the US fractures from the inside and Europe declines demonstratively over the next 30 years, who knows.
I don't want this scenario, but the US can't get their head out of their ass and might take several steps back due to sheer bigotry and bureaucratic gridlock. The strange irony is, common enemy may unite the US and it's allies in ways not seen in a long time. Funny how you need a clear and present danger, not an ambiguous one to get your shyt together.
Personally, I think China is playing both sides and has their eyes on far eastern Siberia should Russia fracture into multiple states. They will play both hands.