We have never seen anything like this year's Portland Trail Blazers
Before the start of the 2015-16 NBA season, some four months ago, it would have been hard to imagine that a March matchup between the
Houston Rockets and
Portland Trail Blazers would be key to the playoff race in the Western Conference.
While nobody envisioned then that Houston would be ninth in the West -- and outside the playoffs if the season ended today -- Portland's relevance was even more difficult to foresee. After losing four starters from last season's team that won 51 games, the Blazers were originally given
a line of 26.5 wins at the Westgate SuperBook Las Vegas -- a total they surpassed by beating the Rockets in their last game before the All-Star break.
No team in modern NBA history has rebuilt on the fly quite like Portland. How have the Blazers done it?
Portland's unique path back to the playoff race
Skepticism about the Blazers' chances this season was understandable. There's virtually no precedent in NBA history for what they've done the past two years.
Because the four starters who departed missed time due to injuries, Portland didn't quite lose 80 percent of its games started, but it was close: 72.2 percent, or an average of 3.6 starters per game.
Basketball-Reference.com has complete data on games started from 1981-82. Since then, 12 teams have returned a smaller percentage of their starts than the Blazers did this season.
For the most part, these teams weren't nearly as successful as Portland. Combined, they won at a 37.3 percent clip the following season -- that's 30 or 31 wins on average.
Just four of the 12 teams were better than .500, and only one -- the 1998-99
Orlando Magic, who traded away star guard
Penny Hardaway as part of a youth movement -- had a better record than the Blazers. Those teams were shuffling the deck hoping to improve, not making major changes because free agency forced their hand.
Portland could become the second team in the past three-plus decades to make the playoffs, have so much turnover, then return to the playoffs the following season.
The other one deserves a big asterisk. The only reason the 1985-86
Chicago Bulls returned so few starts was because their second-year shooting guard started just seven games due to a broken bone in his foot. As it turned out, that shooting guard's return was pretty important, because his name was
Michael Jordan. (The Bulls also won only 30 games that season.)
The Blazers' story is a bit different.
Rebuilding the roster
In fairness, saying that Portland's hand was forced slightly understates how much control the team had last summer. The Blazers worked to retain All-Star forward
LaMarcus Aldridge, but after he decided to leave for the
San Antonio Spurs, general manager Neil Olshey opted not to pursue new contracts for fellow starters
Robin Lopez and
Wesley Matthews. Previously, Olshey had traded forward
Nicolas Batum to the
Charlotte Hornets.
Olshey replaced the lost starters with younger, cheaper alternatives that have been more cost-effective, according to
ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM). Compare the production in terms of RPM wins Portland has gotten from newcomers
Al-Farouq Aminu,
Ed Davis and
Mason Plumlee with the non-Aldridge starters that the Blazers lost. Then note the massive disparity in salary between the two groups.
Comparing the replacements
Player RPM Wins Salary
Added
Al-Farouq Aminu 1.4 4.6 $8,042,895
Ed Davis 2.8 4.1 $6,980,802
Mason Plumlee 3.3 5.7 $1,415,520
Total 14.4 $16,439,217
Lost
Nicolas Batum 1.1 4.1 $13,125,306
Robin Lopez -0.4 2.4 $12,650,000
Wesley Matthews -0.6 2.2 $16,407,500
Total 8.7 $42,182,806
By RPM, Portland has gotten better production from its three newcomers while paying them virtually the same amount combined as Matthews is making this season in Dallas, where he is struggling less than a year removed from his Achilles' tendon surgery. The difference enabled the Blazers to take on salary at the trade deadline, acquiring a first- and second-round pick in return.
Portland's changes would not have been possible without the talent that was already on hand. The Blazers' one returning starter,
Damian Lillard, was an All-Star the past two seasons who could serve as an offensive focal point. He has been complemented by third-year shooting guard
C.J. McCollum, who broke out late last season after Matthews suffered his Achilles injury and has carried that over in a starting role.
McCollum might be the favorite for the NBA's Most Improved Player award. One of his strongest competitors is teammate
Allen Crabbe, also in his third NBA season, who has emerged as a quality wing reserve. Add holdover
Meyers Leonard and minor additions
Maurice Harkless and
Gerald Henderson, and Portland goes 10 players deep despite all the talent that was lost last summer.
Putting the pieces together
Because the Blazers targeted players who performed well in smaller roles, statistical projections were higher on them than conventional wisdom. Insider's RPM-based projection
pegged Portland for near-.500 performance.
So far, however, the Blazers have actually managed to exceed that. And not even the most optimistic forecast could have suggested Portland would go 11-1 in the past month, albeit against a weak schedule and with 10 of the 12 games at home.
For that difference, we must credit Blazers coach Terry Stotts, who has adapted to a very different roster than the ones that won 105 games combined the past two seasons. Stotts has tweaked his offense to take advantage of his new talents.
Portland's backcourt has drawn comparisons to the
Golden State Warriors' duo of
Stephen Curry and
Klay Thompson. In one regard, the Blazers actually do the Warriors one better. Both Lillard and McCollum are pick-and-roll threats, giving Portland more perimeter balance.
According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, Lillard (second) and McCollum (sixth) both rank among the league's leading scorers on pick-and-rolls. In fact, both have outscored Curry (ninth), let alone Thompson (102nd).
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Stotts has also empowered Plumlee to serve as a playmaker when defenses trap Lillard and McCollum, similar to how Golden State uses
Draymond Green and
Andrew Bogut. Never previously thought of as an above-average passer, Plumlee has increased his assist rate from 1.5 per 36 minutes last season to 3.9,
putting him among the NBA's leading big men passers.
Given the offensive talent, it's no surprise Portland clicked on offense. Through Jan. 22, when the team was 19-26, the Blazers ranked ninth in offensive rating but 24th in defensive rating, according to NBA.com/Stats. During the 11-1 surge, Portland has improved to third in offensive rating but taken a more massive leap at the defensive end, all the way to fifth on a per-possession basis.
The conservative defense Stotts favors tends to force opponents into lower-value shots at the expense of gambling for steals. When the Blazers can also force turnovers, they thrive defensively. In the past month, their opponents' turnover rate has gone from 28th in the league to third.
Can Portland keep it up?
The friendly schedule will soon come to an end. After hosting Houston tonight, the Blazers will leave the Rose City for a six-game road trip. Altogether, 11 of Portland's next 13 games will be on the road. And eight of those 11 games are against teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today. We'll know a lot more in a month about whether the Blazers are really the .500 team they've played like all season or the juggernaut they've been of late.
If Portland can survive the next month, the schedule will flip down the stretch. Seven of the team's last nine games are at home, four of those against lottery-bound opposition. And the Blazers might have a cushion to start. If they can beat the Rockets, they'll be three games up on the ninth team in the West with the head-to-head tiebreaker.
As a result,
projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index give Portland a 78.5 percent chance of making the playoffs.
FiveThirtyEight's CARM-Elo projections are even rosier, showing the Blazers in the postseason 91 percent of the time.
That makes Portland heavy favorites to defy history and get back to the playoffs with nearly an entirely rebuilt starting five.
but C.J. is legit!! and with how basketball is played nowadays .. if they can somehow learn to play defense we could have our own killer back court.. 
Dame dropped 50....