No. 1. Joel Embiid, Kansas
A few weeks ago, when we put Embiid atop our Big Board, it still seemed like a risky thing to do. Two weeks later, it's conventional wisdom. Within hours of putting out our last Big Board, more and more scouts and GMs began texting me with what I already expected to hear: Embiid is now the presumptive favorite to be the No. 1 pick. Long, athletic, 7-foot shot-blockers who score in multiple ways can be tough to find.
No. 2. Andrew Wiggins, Kansas
Wiggins continues to be a little up and down. When he's on, he's one of the smoothest scorers in the country. He dropped 27 points on TCU on Saturday and made everything look easy. But he had just three points against Oklahoma State the week before and looked like a ghost. Despite the lack of consistency, there are few players in the college game who have his physical tools. As he grows into his game, he has the chance to be a lethal NBA player.
No. 3. Jabari Parker, Duke
Parker's shooting woes in the NCAA continue (he went just 3-for-13 against Miami and 7-for-19 against Pittsburgh), but he's made up for some of it with some huge rebounding numbers. He pulled down 15 boards against Miami, 14 against Florida State and 11 against Pittsburgh. For someone who takes the rap as one-dimensional, it really helps to add numbers to other parts of the box score.
No. 4. Dante Exum, Australia
On Tuesday, Exum's family told ESPN that he has declared for the 2014 NBA draft and hired agent Rob Pelinka from Landmark Sports Agency. With some of the other top prospects struggling a bit right now, Exum could really capitalize, while he sits at home doing nothing, and move his way back into the top three.
No. 5. Julius Randle, Kentucky
For teams currently getting off the Randle bandwagon, his game against LSU on Tuesday evening was Exhibit A for what has them worried. Randle finished with just six points (3-for-11 shooting) and five rebounds in Kentucky's loss to LSU. The problem for Randle was LSU's front line. The long, athletic combo of Johnny O'Bryant, Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey gave Randle all sorts of trouble inside. Randle has struggled in the past against long, athletic defenders, and LSU disrupted Randle on both ends of the floor. One game won't sway the needle too far in either direction, but this does explain why teams have quit discussing him as a potential No. 1 pick.
No. 6. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
Smart divides a lot of scouts in the NBA. Lately, he's had everyone just a little bit worried. His four-point game against West Virginia (which included a public outburst) was probably just an anomaly. But over the past three games, Smart is shooting just 10-for-39 from the field and just 3-for-21 from 3-point range. Those inconsistent numbers are starting to open the door for a player like Ennis, who is less dramatic yet more consistent, to make a run at the top PG position.
No. 7. Aaron Gordon, Arizona
Gordon isn't a great offensive player, but his reputation on the defense end, elite athletic abilities and hustle keep him in the mix to be a top-10 pick. One subject that Kevin Pelton and I will have to take up soon is that Gordon's steal rate -- a significant statistical indicator to many people -- is pretty low for his draft status. Not Julius Randle low, but low nonetheless.
No. 8. Noah Vonleh, Indiana
As Pelton and I pointed out on Friday, there is a lot to love about Vonleh. He is younger, longer, a better rebounder on the defensive glass, and a better shooter than Randle is right now. While stats aren't everything, there are a number of GMs and scouts who think they'd take Vonleh over Randle. While Vonleh hasn't gotten enough buzz to move him ahead of Randle, the talk is rampant.
No. 9. Dario Saric, Croatia
Saric has quietly been doing his thing in Croatia over the winter -- but expect that to change soon. A number of NBA scouts and GMs are planning to head over to the Balkans as soon as the trade deadline is over to get a better look at him. Based on what I've heard from the scouts who've already been over there, they'll like what they see.
No. 10. Tyler Ennis, Syracuse
Ennis is the hottest name in scouting circles at the moment. There's very little that's sexy about his game, but he's one of the most dependable, sure-handed freshman I've ever seen. He has led his team to a perfect record and the No. 2 ranking in the country. He has a 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, shoots 40 percent from 3-point range, and averages 2.5 steals a game. With so many NBA teams in dire need of a point guard, Ennis is beginning to look like a lock to go high in the draft.
No. 11. Gary Harris, Michigan State
Harris had a series of great games against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan before coming back down to earth against Iowa on Tuesday. Scouts had been concerned about his struggles from deep before he went a combined 10-for-16 from 3-point range against Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. However, he went 0-for-4 from deep against Iowa, and his 3-point shooting is back down below 35 percent. If he can get it near 40 percent by the end of the season, Harris should be a lock for the lottery.
No. 12. Rodney Hood, Duke
When Hood's jump shot is falling (he's shooting 44 percent on 3s this season), he's one of the more lethal wings in the country. What scouts want to see more of is what happened in Saturday's game against Florida State. His shot wasn't falling against the Seminoles, so Hood put the ball on the floor and got to the line (he was 9-of-11 from the stripe).
No. 13. Zach LaVine, UCLA
LaVine continues to produce up-and-down performances in Pac-12 play. He can be hyper-efficient, as he was against Stanford on Thursday, scoring 10 points on 4-for-6 shooting and handing out six assists to just one turnover. Or he can sort of disappear, as he did for much of the Cal game (1-for-5 from the floor). LaVine is still young and raw, but his upside keeps him in the conversation as a lottery pick.
No. 14. Nik Stauskas, Michigan
NBA 3-point shooting comes at a premium, and Stauskas' play this season has vaulted him from the first-round bubble into lottery territory. On a huge stage against Michigan State and Gary Harris, Stauskas responded with 19 points (5-for-6 on 3s). Three nights before, he dropped 26 points on Iowa while shooting 4-for-9 from beyond the arc. His ability to handle the ball and his improved ability to get to the line this season is gravy at this point.
No. 15. Doug McDermott, Creighton
McDermott will get drafted primarily for his ability to shoot the rock as well as his ability to put it on the floor when the defense closes out on him. He's not a great athlete, nor a great defender, but his shooting alone should give him a long, Kyle Korver-like career in the NBA.
No. 16. Montrezl Harrell, Louisville
Harrell is starting to come on strong in the second half of the season; he has posted double-doubles in four of his last five games, including an 18-point, 13-rebound effort at UConn. He is undersized and can't shoot free throws, but his length, explosiveness around the basket, and motor make up for much of it.
No. 17. Jerami Grant, Syracuse
He still hasn't made a 3-point jumper this season, but that doesn't stop scouts from drooling over the long-term potential of Grant. Blessed with elite athleticism, a high basketball IQ and a great motor, he's a jump shot away from being a top-10 pick.
