Is Emmanuel Mudiay the next point monster or another Michael Carter-Williams?
By
Cray Allred
Photo by Hector Acevedo/Zuma Press/Icon Sportswire
Emmanuel Mudiay was the No. 7 draft pick just months after his 19th birthday. His game was shrouded in some mystery thanks to a brief, injury-shortened season in China standing as his only post-high school game action before the 2015 draft. His size was his greatest ally, as it was for Dante Exum, the 19-year-old point guard selected fifth overall a year before.
Rangy, athletic point guards are in style, and teams are starting to roll the dice on 6’5 floor generals who can walk and chew gum more than they do for the clumsy 7-footers of the past.
Like Exum before him, Mudiay quickly confirmed that he wasn’t anywhere near polished. He coughed up 11 turnovers in his rookie debut and racked up some horrid shooting performances as the season unfolded: 3-of-14, 6-of-20, 5-of-16, 1-of-10, 2-of-12, et cetera. Through February, Mudiay had cleaned up his turnover problem, but couldn’t crack 35 percent shooting from the field, or 30 percent from three.
However, in the short time since Nuggets star Danilo Gallinari went down, Mudiay has reversed course. Mudiay’s March numbers are a little shocking. He’s taking seven more shots per game—including 1.5 more threes—and knocking down a 41 /39 percent split, a sharp spike over his season averages.
How Mudiay Stacks Up
Denver needs this handful of games to mean more than a short stretch normally means. This run has been the second-most promising element of his young career.
Mudiay’s season otherwise resembles the rookie year of fellow lanky sized but janky shooting point guard Michael Carter-Williams much more than it does any athletic phenoms who have thrived at the position in recent years.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, Mudiay’s play style and production fit better alongside the rookie campaigns of Exum and Carter-Williams than it does next to the first seasons from John Wall and Russell Westbrook. Aside from his assist, Mudiay’s year has been comfortably better than Exum’s, although the latter had training wheels on that could have curbed his production. Denver traded away Ty Lawson and handed the keys to Mudiay after drafting him, starting him in all but two of his appearances this season.
Outside of Exum, Mudiay is easily the worst shooter of the bunch, the biggest turnover machine, and least effective at getting to the free throw line.
He scores less than any of those players did, dragging down his team’s offense worse.
Mudiay’s individual offensive rating of 85 is a whopping 11 points worse than Carter-Williams’ was on that atrocious Sixers team. His offensive win shares (-3.0) sink further into the abyss than Carter-Williams’ (-0.8) did as well.
Virtually every counting and advanced stat peg Mudiay as a completely draining player to be running the point.
Gotta Make Shots
The most concerning trend in Mudiay’s game might be his lack of “know thyself.”
When the league knows a rookie guard can’t shoot, defenses run under screens and sag way off, daring him to jack a low-percentage bomb.
While the Westbrooks and Walls of the world battled to get closer to the basket, Mudiay has largely taken the bait, throwing up 3.0 attempts from distance every night. Part of his motivation for settling? He can’t convert down low, either, as he’s averaging a putrid 45.5 percent in the restricted area, nearly 15 percent off the league pace.
Some players learn to shoot, and some don’t. Mudiay could improve drastically, but he won’t get there by simply improving as a spot-up shooter. While he’s surrounded by talent, the Nuggets aren’t overflowing with guys who create for others (the ball doesn’t exactly fly around a court with Will Barton, Kenneth Faried, and Gallinari’s sticky hands present), so Mudiay is going to be on his own more often than not.
Point guards rarely have the luxury of spotting up in the corners, instead working to find their shot from above the break, where 92 percent of Mudiay’s bricks shots have come from this season.
That’s what the Nuggets drafted him to be, and they didn’t have any expectation he would be a 50/40/90 guy anytime soon. Again, Mudiay is three years younger than Carter-Williams was as a rookie. There’s time. Neither Wall nor Westbrook eclipsed league-average in points-per-shot in the restricted area until their fourth seasons in the league, and both faced more scrutiny as young players than Mudiay will likely have to endure.
He has tools and time. Now his game just needs to catch up.
Inefficient Emanuel Mudiay Has Plenty of Room to Improve - TFB
Next Michael Carter-Williams?
Bu-bu-but,
@Gil Scott-Heroin told me he was the next John Wall