Trumps rallies primarily make up of old white people. Rallies don't equate to likely voters.
Is Nate Silver Right?
- Thread starter StatUS
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Trumps rallies primarily make up of old white people. Rallies don't equate to likely voters.
That's ultimately irrelevant though. We already know that Trump voters are way more enthusiastic than Hillary voters...doesn't necessarily mean there are more of them.
A large majority of Clinton voters aren't campaigning for her or putting signs up, but are still going to default to her anyway on election day because they hate Trump.
I trust Nate's model and feel its fairly accurate.....I think the rise in polls is enthusiasm from Republicans and a few undecided voters swinging Trumps way the downfall is that these voters are primarily white people.
Clinton has the better diverse demographic and is making HISTORIC strides with Latino voters....her downfall is people within her base like AA's and younger voters not showing up or deflecting to third party candidates.
Which brings this election much closer to what it really is.
Clinton has the better diverse demographic and is making HISTORIC strides with Latino voters....her downfall is people within her base like AA's and younger voters not showing up or deflecting to third party candidates.
Which brings this election much closer to what it really is.
I still say Hillary wins Florida and makes all this shyt moot.
I actually agree with you. I think the latinos in florida are going to give her a close victory there..i heard somewhere that 60-70% of florida votes will already be in by tuesday (unsure how accurate) but it still might be a late night with that count
Personally I think some real fukkery is going to go down in North Carolina, especially since I'm already hearing a bunch of shyt about voter suppression down there.
But Clinton should've used this past week to push policy issues
- Addressing the premiums in Obamacare and healthcare access and affordability
- Reaching out to protesters of the DAPL stand-off in Iowa would've gave her positive headlines swinging some young voters her way
Instead she focused on bashing Trump and Trump has been playing keep away which works to his benefit...that's what helps him look relatively better to those not easily offended by his rhetoric that started with his candidacy from last summer. While at the same time Hillary is fighting off bad press with email leaks.
These voters who hate both have short-term memory and will break with the person that has the "least" negative stories in the closing days...that goes to Trump.
So at this point...as hurtful and saddening as it seems, as it stands today a Trump presidency is highly plausible.
- Addressing the premiums in Obamacare and healthcare access and affordability
- Reaching out to protesters of the DAPL stand-off in Iowa would've gave her positive headlines swinging some young voters her way
Instead she focused on bashing Trump and Trump has been playing keep away which works to his benefit...that's what helps him look relatively better to those not easily offended by his rhetoric that started with his candidacy from last summer. While at the same time Hillary is fighting off bad press with email leaks.
These voters who hate both have short-term memory and will break with the person that has the "least" negative stories in the closing days...that goes to Trump.
So at this point...as hurtful and saddening as it seems, as it stands today a Trump presidency is highly plausible.
Personally I think some real fukkery is going to go down in North Carolina, especially since I'm already hearing a bunch of shyt about voter suppression down there.
Quite possible..who knows.
I wish i still smoked trees..im off on election day and i would love to get high off my ass to witness all the fukkery on the news. I already voted so imma be chillin like
Dusty Bake Activate
Fukk your corny debates
New hispanic voters in FL have surged compared to new white voters. The early voting is showing hispanic turnout is strong so far--significantly outpacing 2012. Hillary is polling 30 points ahead among FL hispanics.Honestly Florida is a tossup, but I think Trump wins it. But I still think Hillary will just barely squeak by anyway with the map looking something like this -
Gonna be a photo finish IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if we still don't know who the winner is by Wednesday morning.
The Puerto Rican population in central FL has soared and they the most pro-Hillary hispanic group.
Cubans are the only right-leaning hispanic group in the state and Trump leads them but weaker than traditional Repubs. Some of it has to do with his shady dealings with Castro, and the 2nd and 3rd generation Cubans aren't as conservative as their parents.
Obama won in 2012 and since then, hispanics have increased their share of FL voters by 2%, while white voters are down 2%.
I think Hillary will win FL and it will be the main thing that tipped the election and it will be mostly because of hispanics, and white conservatives will go even more ape shyt.
dont trust 538 they make the election seem closer than it really is and 538 is for profit anyways
i thought they were legit but i talked to some people they say hes not the best
apparently the most thorough pollster is Sam Wang, and his site is nonprofit.
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004
Nate Silver is finessing for page clicks by making Florida change colors throughout the day and shyt
i thought they were legit but i talked to some people they say hes not the best
apparently the most thorough pollster is Sam Wang, and his site is nonprofit.
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004
he gives Hillary 98% chance of winning
Nate Silver is finessing for page clicks by making Florida change colors throughout the day and shyt
Quite possible..who knows.
I wish i still smoked trees..im off on election day and i would love to get high off my ass to witness all the fukkery on the news. I already voted so imma be chillin like
Trees (and even edibles) on deck for me.
I have to work that day but when I get home
TheDarceKnight
Veteran
There's also thisdont trust 538 they make the election seem closer than it really is and 538 is for profit anyways
i thought they were legit but i talked to some people they say hes not the best
apparently the most thorough pollster is Sam Wang, and his site is nonprofit.
Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004
he gives Hillary 98% chance of winning
Nate Silver is finessing for page clicks by making Florida change colors throughout the day and shyt
" when things are going badly for a candidate, their supporters tend to stop participating in polls. "
YouGov | Beware the phantom swings: why dramatic bounces in the polls aren't always what they seem
This was my map too, but Trump has no ground game and that can count for another 1 to 2 points so he might fukk around and lose by more than he should because of it. I wouldn't be surprised if that led to Ls in all of the swing states.Honestly Florida is a tossup, but I think Trump wins it. But I still think Hillary will just barely squeak by anyway with the map looking something like this -
Gonna be a photo finish IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if we still don't know who the winner is by Wednesday morning.
Tony D'Amato
It's all about the inches
Could America be dumb enought to elect that clown?
ezrathegreat
Veteran
GoddamnyamanProf
Countdown to Armageddon
Because even if that were true, which it isnt, rally attendees doesnt equal votes cast