Is Nate Silver Right?

[Absolut]

he aint winning nevada. i dont know how its a toss up state. dem voters are outnumbering gop by 70k already, and this is tonight









did trump get one vote all day at that joint?

i bet hilary to win nevada at -160 to the point the bookie took it down. he is in a HUGE hole here after todays final early vote. more than half the vote is in and hes stuck large

 

[heart]

dont trust 538 they make the election seem closer than it really is and 538 is for profit anyways

i thought they were legit but i talked to some people they say hes not the best

apparently the most thorough pollster is Sam Wang, and his site is nonprofit.

Princeton Election Consortium — A first draft of electoral history. Since 2004


he gives Hillary 98% chance of winning


Nate Silver is finessing for page clicks by making Florida change colors throughout the day and shyt

Yeah I've been watching Nate's twitter feeds over the last few days and it's been extremely Pro trump and hedging his bets. I didn't follow him through the republican primaries so him being wrong about trump the entire time is news to me.

But it seems he will put out an editorial that contradicts the data he presents. Then today he says Hillary is up by 2-3% and the polling error will be that high. It's obvious he is doing this for clicks. But it's no different than what the broadcast media has been doing. Same thing in happened in '12. The thing now is there are so many polls, and fox, msnbc, & especially cnn can cherry pick anyone to further drive their narrative.

Hillary is damn near at 270 just because of the electorate but if I was looking at an upset, I would look at Pennsylvania. It will stay democratic because of the counties. I would say Iowa and Ohio will be closer as well. I don't think those are slam dunks for trump. The thing is where will the Millennials break in that state.

I heard from one of my friends who is charge of a lot of voter registration in Miami and what he says which I think is true is that the Clinton campaign is pushing the narrative through the media about black turnout. They feel confident about the latino turnout but again the voters have to turn out in the Orlando area and south florida. On election night, NC may get called before florida. I think the Comey letter left the campaign shell shocked for a few days and they got cocky. Now I think they're just being extra cautious and not leaving any stone unturned so they can still win in a landslide which is about 300-330 which is still highly plausible.

For a Trump Victory::::
If we see a trump victory on Tuesday. I think a big part will be young voters doing a big fukk you to the establishment by voting for Stein and Johnson. Regardless who wins between Clinton & trump, I think Johnson's numbers will be highest of any independent candidate ever. That will probably affect Clinton more than trump and along with low turnout. We could be looking at president trump... To me that's his biggest plausible path to victory.

 

[StatUS]

Yeah I've been watching Nate's twitter feeds over the last few days and it's been extremely Pro trump and hedging his bets. I didn't follow him through the republican primaries so him being wrong about trump the entire time is news to me.

But it seems he will put out an editorial that contradicts the data he presents. Then today he says Hillary is up by 2-3% and the polling error will be that high. It's obvious he is doing this for clicks. But it's no different than what the broadcast media has been doing. Same thing in happened in '12. The thing now is there are so many polls, and fox, msnbc, & especially cnn can cherry pick anyone to further drive their narrative.

Hillary is damn near at 270 just because of the electorate but if I was looking at an upset, I would look at Pennsylvania. It will stay democratic because of the counties. I would say Iowa and Ohio will be closer as well. I don't think those are slam dunks for trump. The thing is where will the Millennials break in that state.

I heard from one of my friends who is charge of a lot of voter registration in Miami and what he says which I think is true is that the Clinton campaign is pushing the narrative through the media about black turnout. They feel confident about the latino turnout but again the voters have to turn out in the Orlando area and south florida. On election night, NC may get called before florida. I think the Comey letter left the campaign shell shocked for a few days and they got cocky. Now I think they're just being extra cautious and not leaving any stone unturned so they can still win in a landslide which is about 300-330 which is still highly plausible.

For a Trump Victory::::
If we see a trump victory on Tuesday. I think a big part will be young voters doing a big fukk you to the establishment by voting for Stein and Johnson. Regardless who wins between Clinton & trump, I think Johnson's numbers will be highest of any independent candidate ever. That will probably affect Clinton more than trump and along with low turnout. We could be looking at president trump... To me that's his biggest plausible path to victory.

Perot got like 20% in 1992, Johnson's best bet will be to get 5%-8%.

 

[heart]

Perot got like 20% in 1992, Johnson's best bet will be to get 5%-8%.

Yeah you're right, I forgot how high Perot numbers were. But even if Johnson got half that wouldn't you agree think trump could win? I think a lot of young voters will stay home or go 3rd party despite what Bernie says. I mean it's all hyperbole but it's hard to get him a path to 270 UNLESS there are major voting errors or we get a "Bradley effect".

 

[StatUS]

Yeah you're right, I forgot how high Perot numbers were. But even if Johnson got half that wouldn't you agree think trump could win? I think a lot of young voters will stay home or go 3rd party despite what Bernie says. I mean it's all hyperbole but it's hard to get him a path to 270 UNLESS there are major voting errors or we get a "Bradley effect".

In the aggregate of polls Trump and Hillary are pretty much the same if you count 2 parties or 4. They're taking from both and actually a little more from Trump.

Bernie and Warren have actually done a good job of swaying his base enough to Hillary to where Jill wasn't a factor and Gary shot himself in the foot by being a loose cannon and not the entertaining kind like Trump. Millenials are voting more for 3rd parties than the past but that's not gonna decide this race.

What it will come down to is if Hillary can rally Hispanics in places like Nevada and Florida and white females everywhere else. The 3rd party narrative is just the Dems making sure they cover their bases just like they're saying black turnout is down.

 

[ezrathegreat]

Yeah I've been watching Nate's twitter feeds over the last few days and it's been extremely Pro trump and hedging his bets. I didn't follow him through the republican primaries so him being wrong about trump the entire time is news to me.

But it seems he will put out an editorial that contradicts the data he presents. Then today he says Hillary is up by 2-3% and the polling error will be that high. It's obvious he is doing this for clicks. But it's no different than what the broadcast media has been doing. Same thing in happened in '12. The thing now is there are so many polls, and fox, msnbc, & especially cnn can cherry pick anyone to further drive their narrative.

Hillary is damn near at 270 just because of the electorate but if I was looking at an upset, I would look at Pennsylvania. It will stay democratic because of the counties. I would say Iowa and Ohio will be closer as well. I don't think those are slam dunks for trump. The thing is where will the Millennials break in that state.

I heard from one of my friends who is charge of a lot of voter registration in Miami and what he says which I think is true is that the Clinton campaign is pushing the narrative through the media about black turnout. They feel confident about the latino turnout but again the voters have to turn out in the Orlando area and south florida. On election night, NC may get called before florida. I think the Comey letter left the campaign shell shocked for a few days and they got cocky. Now I think they're just being extra cautious and not leaving any stone unturned so they can still win in a landslide which is about 300-330 which is still highly plausible.

For a Trump Victory::::
If we see a trump victory on Tuesday. I think a big part will be young voters doing a big fukk you to the establishment by voting for Stein and Johnson. Regardless who wins between Clinton & trump, I think Johnson's numbers will be highest of any independent candidate ever. That will probably affect Clinton more than trump and along with low turnout. We could be looking at president trump... To me that's his biggest plausible path to victory.

I don't think he's lying, I think he is really unsure about who will win. I would like to think it will be a landslide win for Hilary and I think it will but wit this crazy election cycle .....I can't blame him for hedging his bets. I mean, his credibility as a pollster is on the line and even if we don't like it, he has to call it like he sees it, God forbid a Trump win. I guess we will find out Tuesday.

 

[Street Knowledge]

He wouldn't be the first

The crazy thing is George bush would beat Hilary comfortably

 

[greenygreen]

Hillary fire, Hillary fire



Good thing she got reptilians on her side

 

[ezrathegreat]

The crazy thing is George bush would beat Hilary comfortably

That goofy mothafukka was damn near untouchable during election season.

 

[Gentility]

he aint winning nevada. i dont know how its a toss up state. dem voters are outnumbering gop by 70k already, and this is tonight

did trump get one vote all day at that joint?

i bet hilary to win nevada at -160 to the point the bookie took it down. he is in a HUGE hole here after todays final early vote. more than half the vote is in and hes stuck large

I guess he's suspicious that many of those Dem voters could be Trump supporters. They only know party breakdown, not who voted for who.

I think it's dumb to believe that these Democrat Mexicans are voting for Trump, but Nate is hedging his bets (and racking up clicks in the meantime). It's safe to say Nevada is Hillary's and the Trump path to victory is getting narrower by the day.

 

[TTT]

Nevada is 70% in and even though party id is all we get to go off on it is safe to say the potential for crossover is very low. Nevada seems to be one of the states that are not easy to poll, apparently it's because of a large preponderance of shift workers and lack of Spanish in some of the polling. Some networks like CNN are deliberately leaving it out because if they include it in their map it has Hillary already over 270. Fox surprisingly is already over 270 for Hillary and other networks have pundits like "say we give Trump this state" so that they can promote their coverage for election night.

 

[heart]

Nevada is 70% in and even though party id is all we get to go off on it is safe to say the potential for crossover is very low. Nevada seems to be one of the states that are not easy to poll, apparently it's because of a large preponderance of shift workers and lack of Spanish in some of the polling. Some networks like CNN are deliberately leaving it out because if they include it in their map it has Hillary already over 270. Fox surprisingly is already over 270 for Hillary and other networks have pundits like "say we give Trump this state" so that they can promote their coverage for election night.

Which is one of the reasons the three major news organizations have been eating. Two weeks ago they were talking about who hillary will put in her cabinet and now some shows on these sites are saying this is the "closet race ever."

Also have you guys looked at Nate Silver's tweets today? He's been at war with Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post. Grim is basically saying Silver is changing his voter models to make the race more tighter for clicks.

 

[ezrathegreat]

Which is one of the reasons the three major news organizations have been eating. Two weeks ago they were talking about who hillary will put in her cabinet and now some shows on these sites are saying this is the "closet race ever."

Also have you guys looked at Nate Silver's tweets today? He's been at war with Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post. Grim is basically saying Silver is changing his voter models to make the race more tighter for clicks.

I don't know what the hell is going on? Half the pollsters say it will Clinton for sure, the other half are saying it will be a close race? I've never seen anything like this before.

 

[FAH1223]

Nevada is 70% in and even though party id is all we get to go off on it is safe to say the potential for crossover is very low. Nevada seems to be one of the states that are not easy to poll, apparently it's because of a large preponderance of shift workers and lack of Spanish in some of the polling. Some networks like CNN are deliberately leaving it out because if they include it in their map it has Hillary already over 270. Fox surprisingly is already over 270 for Hillary and other networks have pundits like "say we give Trump this state" so that they can promote their coverage for election night.

they did the same thing in 2012...

its a joke, all for ratings

 

[¯\_(ツ)_/¯]

I think Nate's polling is pretty accurate and we'd be remiss to dismiss it as just "clickbait".

I don't think the race has tightened primarily due to the Comey letter. I think it shrunk for the most part because of news about healthcare premiums spiking. Ppl vote with their pocketbook and the ACA which has already been a headache for quite a few ppl does look like it's making quite a few ppl lean towards a person who wants to fix it...even if it means repealing it.

Hillary had an oppportunity this week to make her primary focus on fixing the premimuns and helping The rest of Americans frustrations with ACA with solutions. Instead she focuses on bashing Trump as misogynistic and racist. Most Americans already knew this. Now we need someone to provide solutions to the ACA premiums.

If she would've focused on that I'd say her chances of winning would be higher than they are now. I think Nate is being rational about this data.