Is Nate Silver Right?

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heart said:
Which is one of the reasons the three major news organizations have been eating. Two weeks ago they were talking about who hillary will put in her cabinet and now some shows on these sites are saying this is the "closet race ever."

Also have you guys looked at Nate Silver's tweets today? He's been at war with Ryan Grim of the Huffington Post. Grim is basically saying Silver is changing his voter models to make the race more tighter for clicks.
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That's exactly what he is doing.
 
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JUSE_HEDD said:
I think Nate's polling is pretty accurate and we'd be remiss to dismiss it as just "clickbait".

I don't think the race has tightened primarily due to the Comey letter. I think it shrunk for the most part because of news about healthcare premiums spiking. Ppl vote with their pocketbook and the ACA which has already been a headache for quite a few ppl does look like it's making quite a few ppl lean towards a person who wants to fix it...even if it means repealing it.

Hillary had an oppportunity this week to make her primary focus on fixing the premimuns and helping The rest of Americans frustrations with ACA with solutions. Instead she focuses on bashing Trump as misogynistic and racist. Most Americans already knew this. Now we need someone to provide solutions to the ACA premiums.

If she would've focused on that I'd say her chances of winning would be higher than they are now. I think Nate is being rational about this data.
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Well to be fair again I think that letter along with the premiums sent the campaign in a mini-tail spin. If she wins, the thing that probably helped her is early voting. People know that she is shady but a lot of people can't imagine a President Trump and I don't think Hillary or Obama cares, they just wanna win.

I think she took the right approach instead of being positive. She had no choice but to get the base fired up and remind voters of who she thinks he is because the attention span of Americans change fast. If she would've went more positive this week like, it's likely she would've lost a lot more votes. Brent Bair says that an likely indictment is coming down on her, retracts it along with that senile racist b*stardd Rudy G and trump is STILL saying it's happening at every campaign stump. Its like two candidates being held to different standards.

I said it before his manager Kellyenne is a good pollster and I'm sure she told him the truth about his chances which is why he's going all over the country like a mad man. In 08' Mccain woke up on election day and knew he wasn't winning, four years later Romney woke up on election day and thought he would win. I think trump's team has told him the same thing Mccain people told him in '08 but we'll see...
 
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Did he change his model? The last 5 or 6 polls out of Florida had Hillary leading but he has Trump ahead same with North Carolina.:mindblown: I looked at 2012 and the race was even closer than this and he had Obama at 91%. :dahell:
 
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Clinton could be doing an event down the street from me and I wouldn't show. I wouldn't give a fukk. Doesn't mean I'll be voting for Trump.

I trust Silver, he's been spot on with this shyt.

Maybe Florida ends up a toss up but if Hill takes Nevada this won't even be close..

Imagine Hill does take Florida.. that will end any drama and the polls close at 7pm ET there, we may know for sure who is going to win very early on...

:lupe:
 
ezrathegreat

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saysumthinfunnymike said:
Clinton could be doing an event down the street from me and I wouldn't show. I wouldn't give a fukk. Doesn't mean I'll be voting for Trump.

I trust Silver, he's been spot on with this shyt.

Maybe Florida ends up a toss up but if Hill takes Nevada this won't even be close..

Imagine Hill does take Florida.. that will end any drama and the polls close at 7pm ET there, we may know for sure who is going to win very early on...

:lupe:
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:francis:We will soon know if we are in a far-right white nationalist government.
 
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ezrathegreat said:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

:why:From 61% to 50% in one day. Something spooky is going on brehs. I hope Nate isn't trying to tell us something.:lupe: @heart @saysumthinfunnymike @Foxmulder @Gentility
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If this is true for the sake of argument. Then this is the by product effect of the Comey letter, Obamacare, and wikileaks that Clinton has received. The combination is affecting the down ballot in places were the Dems thought they could run up the score.
 
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Foxmulder said:
Did he change his model? The last 5 or 6 polls out of Florida had Hillary leading but he has Trump ahead same with North Carolina.:mindblown: I looked at 2012 and the race was even closer than this and he had Obama at 91%. :dahell:
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Because Romney unlike Trump had college educated white women supporting him...thats why he only lost by less than 1 percent.
 
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Foxmulder said:
Did he change his model? The last 5 or 6 polls out of Florida had Hillary leading but he has Trump ahead same with North Carolina.:mindblown: I looked at 2012 and the race was even closer than this and he had Obama at 91%. :dahell:
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According to Harry Enten and what was stated by Nate a few times, is that the model takes into account regional trends. Meaning, say in Ohio where you see a lot of non-college educated whites. Even though its pretty safe to say Ohio is red now, maybe Trump in a previous poll led by 5, but then a new poll comes out that says he now leads by 10 in Ohio. Well, from my understanding, "The Model" will take the gaining in Ohio in account and maybe look at near by states that have a sizeable amount of uneducated whites and assume that the uneducated whites will turn out more than predicted before thus, bringing down the chances of Hillary winning the state. So its not just looking at polls directly related to the state, but also demographic shifts in nearby states that may signal what would happen in the state. I guess it assumes that maybe polls haven't caught that shift yet for that particular state or something.
 
Piff Perkins

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acri1 said:
Honestly Florida is a tossup, but I think Trump wins it. But I still think Hillary will just barely squeak by anyway with the map looking something like this -


XDbo8.png



Gonna be a photo finish IMO. I wouldn't be surprised if we still don't know who the winner is by Wednesday morning.
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lol

It'll be over at 11PM, EST. Hillary should win Florida based on the early voting numbers. She has already won Nevada based on early voting, I have no idea why you think it goes red.

I think she wins NC too. TBH I kinda think McMullin will win Utah based on the polls there right now.
 
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