The geopolitics is less about price and more about access in case of war, natural disaster, etc. You're at an immediate strategic disadvantage if you can't feed and fuel your population independently. That's why we have massive farming subsidies, and also why there's been such a huge push towards encouraging fracking in the US (and oil sands mining in Canada). Japan learned this the hard way in WWII.
Something to keep in mind is that most countries that are significant oil producers are
extremely dependent on oil exports to keep their economies afloat. Check out oil exports as a % of GDP of the major producers and you'll see that they really don't have much choice but to keep pumping as much as they possibly can. The Saudi monarchy can't afford to stop - the royal family would lose their heads in a week because they'd be unable to sustain the massive subsidies paid out to the average Saudi in exchange for their acquiescence. Neither can the Nigerians, Venezuelans, Mexicans, etc.
List of countries by oil exports - Wikipedia
Saudi Arabia exports 8.3 million barrels / day. At current prices, that's ~$550 million
per day. Over $200 billion a year. Saudi Arabia's GDP was $684 billion in 2017 - so oil exports are somewhere around 30% of total GDP.
Imagine if Saudi Arabia just decided one day to stop exporting oil. They'd see 30% of their economy evaporate
overnight. And the follow-on effects would just add to the devastation - think of all the economic activity surrounding oil production that would stop. The total GDP loss could easily surpass 50%.
There's a sort of "mutually assured destruction" built into the oil producer / oil buyer relationship.
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